Sunday, September 14, 2008

The Canadian Voter is "Up for Grabs" - Nik Nanos

I am encouraged by Nik Nanos’ survey showing that 60% of Canadian voters are “up for grabs.” This means that most of us could change our votes if there is a reason to do so.

This will auger well for end of campaign strategic voting. We saw this in 2004 and the shift away from scary Harper’s control-freak version of Canada with him in control of everything. It could happen again. It must happen again.

The citizens of Canada need to ensure the Harper Conservatives do not get a majority government. If they do, Harper will make into Canada into a one-party NEO-REPUBLICAN STATE. That is ENOUGH REASON enough to vote ABC – Anything But Conservative.

The Cons have the most hard-core group of voters…ignoring the Bloc which don’t count for the rest of Canada who are outside Quebec. Half of Harper’s partisans are true-believers and “Very Firm” in their voting intentions…and they will show up at the polls for sure. If the rest of us stay home, that is enough to give Harper a majority government

The Greens are the next most solid group of party supporters at 43% Very Firm, but there are not a lot of them. The Greens are ironically the most fluid group too with 18% saying they are “Not At All Sure” if they will vote for their party.

The NDP support for Layton is about 50/50 overall with 44% saying they are “Somewhat Firm” compared to 39% in the “Very Firm” category and 7% who are really unsure of voting along party lines.

The Liberals are even softer than the NDP. The only have 36% of true believers and the largest group of Somewhat Firm (47%) and Not At All Firm at 9%. This is an obvious reflection of ambiguousness over Dion’s leadership and the lack-lustre campaign so far.

My guess is the election is all about Harper and if he can be trusted as a person, not just as a manager. Readers of this Blog know I think the answer is unequivocally NO! I think his is also a danger to democracy.

If others agree then strategic voting will become the norm to stop Harper in the last week of the campaign. For many reasons Layton will not be the beneficiary of this strategic voting, not the least of which was his agreeing with Harper to keep May out of the debates.

Here is how I see it happening. The Liberals will hold their noses and rally behind Dion. Greens will stay with May in her own riding and where they are competitive like Linda Duncan in Edmonton Strathcona but most of them will shift to Liberals. The NDP will split evenly between staying with Layton and shifting to Liberals to void vote splitting and giving a majority to Harper.

The cynical and disengaged may get scared by Harper’s sly, negative an conniving campaign style and show up to stop him. This will be because they begin to see the disaster that will befall them if they do show up and vote against Harper’s lust for personal political power. Anyone who thinks this election is inconsequential because it is essentially unnecessary and stay away from the polls is sleep walking to a disaster. That disaster is a Conservative majority government led by a power hungry control freak by the name of Stephen Harper.

Time to show up and vote Canada and make sure that does not happen!