The latest Ipsos Reid poll is at best a foreboding and foreshadowing for the future of Mr. Harper’s minority government. The wisdom of the public is reflected in that the Bernier affair has not changed the overall support rankings of the various political parties. It should not – at least not yet, until we know more about what went on with the security breach around the classified Cabinet documents.
The troubling trend for me in the new poll is the fracturing of the country on regional lines. Harper is a growing lightning rod for the fragmentation of the country based on perceptions of if the country is on the right track as a nation and the support to re-elect Harper's government.
His support for putting the country on the right track is regionalized from a high of 64% support in Alberta to a low of 48% in British Columbia. This is getting translated into growing questions about if the Harper government should be re-elected. There is a majority in Atlantic Canada (56%) and in Quebec (53%) who do not want the Harper government back. Only 48% of B.C. and 47% of Ontarians think Harper should be re-elected.
The lack of a forward thinking policy agenda from Harper’s “team” (sic) is now being talked about too as a growing concern. Tepid support for Harper being on the right track for the country and the growing sense he has no vision for the direction of the country and he is a divisive force will start to show his weaknesses as a leader.
We don’t need a manager as our Prime Minister. We need a leader we can trust and depend on. Harper has been positioned as a manager, a control freak and a master message manipulator, but that is not the stuff of a Prime Minister. Canadians are quickly coming to that realization and the new Ipsos Reid poll is showing this awareness which will be growing in the 17 months until the next election.
I'm not sure it's really all that complicated.
ReplyDeleteConservative is the political brand in Alberta. Alberta voters, with the exception of a few who supported urban Liberal candidates, have heard for years that Ottawa is out to get them, their oil money and their little doggies too.
It's not really a surprise that Albertans tend to be favourably disposed to a party that they believe will fight for them. Whatever that means.
This government's best before date was the first Flaherty budget.
It's not particularly surprising that in places with a more competitive political culture - where voters actually change their minds and seats may shift - voters may actually have their doubts about a government that seems to lack a real plan to deal with the economy or many of the other issues of concern.
Amusing as it may be, Ontario swing voters probably expect the Government of Canada's approach to any issue to be bigger than "It's McGuinty's fault."
I'm not sure we're really talking regional cleavages. We know Alberta is different. Nobody should be surprised by that.
Is Harper is so off track, then why doesn't Dion force an election? The answer must be that Dion is so unprincipled that he has to wait to a moment where he is most likely to win. Unfortunately for Dion, he has fallen to 4th in Quebec - he home province for heaven's sake!!!
ReplyDeleteAnon - GET OFF IT. Harper has been jockeying for a winning condition to force an election for months. Calling every cock-a-mamy Commons vote a confidence vote in a desperate attempt to be "defeated" and setting up a full campaign war room in an office building that he can't use but is still paying for is laughable.
ReplyDeleteHe is using the hard earned money from duped party donors for such stupidity. That is hardly the stuff of statesmanship.
You guys are as incorrigible as you are hypocritical.
Anon - another thing - the G&M did an extensive piece on May 14 headlined "Tories Losing Ground With Voters." The latest poll they noted was May 8-11 showing the Qiuebec results with the Cons at 20%, the Libs at 25% the Boc at 38%and the Greens at 9% and NDP at 8%.
ReplyDeleteWith Premiers McGuinty and Charest joining forces to fight the feds, your Mr. Harper is going to be in real trouble in central Canada.
He is not only divisive, he is an outright bully.
ReplyDeleteThe Conservatives need to be turfed so that they will choose a new leader - someone without control issues and Reform baggage.
It astounds me that behaviour, activities, attitudes and outcomes that would have OUTRAGED Albertans were they to have come from 'Liberals' are just dandy when done by the Conservatives.
Are you on drugs? Charest is one of Harper's biggest supporters (even after he also helped out Dumont).
ReplyDeletePick your polls - Dion is ranked 4th in Quebec (his home province) as the best leader to lead the country. He is even behind Jack Layton of the NDP!! Your ignoring these polls is delusional.
Charest has moved against your boy. Read the papers and the signs are not good. Yes Dion is forth but his party is 2nd in Quebec. That was my point.
ReplyDeleteHarper is not a leader he is a one-trick phony. Dion carries the Chrétien-Martin baggage and he stood up to the Bloc on separation and sponsored and passed the Clarity Act - a great piece of democracy in action.
He pissed of the PQ, the Bloc and the soft nationalists who wanted to play the fed-prov separatist shuffle for some more money out of Ottawa. Same old - same old!
Remember - that is why you Reformers got into politics to stop that Quebec pandering. Now your leader is the master Quebec shuffle player. Ironic or idiocy -maybe both but for sure it is politically dishonest.
The denial of the Harper Cons over their skills at fragmenting the country are underscored by the June 4th column of Chantel Hebert in the Star.
ReplyDeleteHarper has single-handedly enabled Ontario and Quebec to join forces to stare down the Feds. The Harper Cons concern for a small government are being enabled by the provinces stepping up the effectivness of regional interests.
The erosion of the influence of the federal government is more assured thatn ever under the "leadership" of Stephen Harper.
Here is the link to the column:
http://www.thestar.com/Canada/Columnist/article/436590