A BANNER HEADLINE IN THE GLOBE AND MAIL PROCLAIMS A TORY “SURGE.” Is anyone still surprised that Harper’s political hero and mentor is George W. Bush? Now Harper is intent on outdoing the “Dubya” by having his “surge” first… while the “Decider” is still waiting for his “permission slip” from Congress so he can have his Iraq troop “surge.”
This new Globe and Mail / CTV poll is just daring Steve to call an election. Let’s look at the ploy. The poll of 1000 Canadians done between Dec 15-18, with 3.1% margin of error, shows Harper has 36% versus Dion’s 18% indicating he “would do the best job of Prime Minister.” Layton is a respectable 16% but the real story is 23% undecided. Let’s put some context on this support.
Harper has been a federal party leader for almost 5 years, since March 20, 2002 when he took over the Alliance Party in a decisive first ballot victory from Stockwell Day. He has been Prime Minister for over a year in some of Canada’s most uncertain times. When this poll was taken Dion has been the leader of the Liberal Party, winning on the fourth ballot for a grand total of 75 DAYS, including political hothouse times of Christmas and New Year.
Smilin’ Jack Layton has been the NDP leader more than four years again winning with a first ballot victory on January 25, 2003. He is Mr. Charismatic winning that most meaningless of political questions at 36% nosing out Harper by a point. Harper has to be asking himself, “What is a poor economist to do to after five years to make people warm to him?”
The recent performances of the Liberal party under Chrétien and Martin have not been confidence builders by any stretch. The 36% support for Harper is amazing…amazingly low under the circumstance. The 18% for Dion is also amazing…amazing he has that much support at all when he is virtually unknown, leading a disgraced party who is still in the political penalty box in the mind of Canadians.
On name recognition alone one would expect Harper to be a big winner…”the devil you know.” The most important number on this question…again the 23% undecided. That should scare the “beejeezez” out of Harper and give Dion a glimmer of hope. Remember campaigns matter.
The headline reporting on this poll is a pure ploy to bait Harper into an ego driven early election. I say this because the headline is a misdirection of the poll results as a whole. The real story was on A7 of the Globe and Mail. Taking the 3.1% margin of error in context the critical political questions show a statistical tie.
The key question of “…how would you vote today” has the Cons (34) and Libs (29) still in a statistical tie. “Who do you identify with the most,” Cons (27) Libs (28) another statistical tie. The statistical tie story is the same on questions of who would govern best, manage the economy best and deal with the environment and global warming. About 25% of Canadians are undecided on each of these questions…that is the real story here.
Harper’s five years in leadership politics and focus on only five political promises in the past year has given him the clear edge to where 50% see him as having “…the clearest vision of where HE (emphasis added) want to take the country. He is also seen as the most decisive by 53% of respondents.
The real question these numbers beg is do we share HIS vision of the country…it is not decided yet – just look at the size of the undecided voters. Being decisive is not helpful if we don’t trust you or your decisions or your agenda. What if the voter’s true sense of Harper is one of a man often wrong but never in doubt! That will not win an election.
As for the personal characteristics in this poll, it is old news. We have already seen them from Nik Nanos at SES in his February 12 poll. Read my post of Feb 12 for my take on it then too.
Tuesday, February 20, 2007
Monday, February 19, 2007
Could the Week of March 20 - 26 Change Canada?
UPDATE FEB 20
FINANCE MINISTER FLAHERTY ANNOUNCES TODAY THE FED BUDGET SPEECH WILL READ MARCH 19 - OK FINE...MAKE ME WRONG...BUT I STAND BY MY CONTENTION DURING THE WEEK OF MARCH 20 - 26 WE WILL SEE MORE PURE HACKERY DESIGNED TO PURCHASE QUEBEC "LOYALTY" THAT IT WILL MAKE CREDIT CARD FRAUD AT WINNERS LOOK LEGITIMATE.
There have been some very significant dates in the modern history between Quebec and Canada. The two referendums, the defeat of the Accords Charlottetown and Meech Lake, the FLQ Crisis and I rank the election of Rene Lévesque in 1976 as amongst the biggies.
Now we are poised for another one…the pending Quebec election speculated for March 26 as at the time of writing. The week of March 20 to 26th could be monumental for the future of the country.
On March 20 we are rumored to have a Federal Budget and 6 days later Quebec will elect a new government. Depending on the Quebec election outcomes Stephen Harper will do his best Charlie Chaplin staged pratfall and will cause a federal election to be called, perhaps by engineering the defeat of his budget.
That budget is going to be as bountiful for Quebec as you can imagine. The Mulroney CF-18 favoritism to Quebec is going to look like downright penury in comparison. Dion may be dancing with the devil Chrétien for political advice but Harper is siting at the feet of Mulroney, at least when George Bush is too busy to return phone calls because his is preoccupied with destroying American influence in the world.
Mark your calendars. March 20 Federal Budget and a give away to Quebec designed to “ensure” a Charest victory. All this for the feigned federalist forces (a.k.a the CPC election positioning for more Quebec seats). This will be the biggest news on Canadian television since Anna Nicole Smith’s death took Iraq and Iran off the 24 hour news cycle.
I have a sense that Dumont and the ADQ are going to spoil the party for Charest and Harper. He is not going to win but he is going to be the winner. Quebecers like to make favourable federalist deals but they don’t like to be bought off overtly nor played for fools.
Don’t under estimate Dumont. Back-of-the-packers have done rather well of late. Stelmach in Alberta, Dion in the Liberal leadership – even Stephen Harper was seen as a second rater until the RCMP thought they should announce their Income Trust investigation and helped Harper out in the 2006 election.
Quebec people do not like being played like cheap fiddles but they want change too. Hence Harper can utter a few choice words, like “fiscal imbalance” and “Quebec Nation” in the dying days of the last election. Harper did not even have to understand the words or the concepts behind them and he gets 12 Quebec seats. Not bad and not because they like Harper but because they wanted to send the Liberals a message…they could not be bought by cheap political tricks and they were humiliated by the implications of same in Adscam.
So come March 20…six days before Charest’s electoral D-day, Harper’s budget will offer a cornucopia of fiscal favours to Quebec and he will cozy up to Charest with so many promises it could only be described as fiscal promiscuity. Quebec will have to decide if it is only the price of their soul we are talking about or the fact of their soul.
It is going to be a fundamental and future changing week for Canada, never mind the shenanigans of Harper and Charest. My guess is Quebec will take the money, Charest will win, the PQ Boisclair will be a bust and told by his party to hit the road and Dumont will hold the balance of Quebec power at the end or the day. Then Dion will force the federal election on the Harper Budget and the future of Canada as a nation will once again be at play.
Bookmark your favourite iconoclastic Blogs and columnists for frequent reading that week. It is going to be fascinating.
Now we are poised for another one…the pending Quebec election speculated for March 26 as at the time of writing. The week of March 20 to 26th could be monumental for the future of the country.
On March 20 we are rumored to have a Federal Budget and 6 days later Quebec will elect a new government. Depending on the Quebec election outcomes Stephen Harper will do his best Charlie Chaplin staged pratfall and will cause a federal election to be called, perhaps by engineering the defeat of his budget.
That budget is going to be as bountiful for Quebec as you can imagine. The Mulroney CF-18 favoritism to Quebec is going to look like downright penury in comparison. Dion may be dancing with the devil Chrétien for political advice but Harper is siting at the feet of Mulroney, at least when George Bush is too busy to return phone calls because his is preoccupied with destroying American influence in the world.
Mark your calendars. March 20 Federal Budget and a give away to Quebec designed to “ensure” a Charest victory. All this for the feigned federalist forces (a.k.a the CPC election positioning for more Quebec seats). This will be the biggest news on Canadian television since Anna Nicole Smith’s death took Iraq and Iran off the 24 hour news cycle.
I have a sense that Dumont and the ADQ are going to spoil the party for Charest and Harper. He is not going to win but he is going to be the winner. Quebecers like to make favourable federalist deals but they don’t like to be bought off overtly nor played for fools.
Don’t under estimate Dumont. Back-of-the-packers have done rather well of late. Stelmach in Alberta, Dion in the Liberal leadership – even Stephen Harper was seen as a second rater until the RCMP thought they should announce their Income Trust investigation and helped Harper out in the 2006 election.
Quebec people do not like being played like cheap fiddles but they want change too. Hence Harper can utter a few choice words, like “fiscal imbalance” and “Quebec Nation” in the dying days of the last election. Harper did not even have to understand the words or the concepts behind them and he gets 12 Quebec seats. Not bad and not because they like Harper but because they wanted to send the Liberals a message…they could not be bought by cheap political tricks and they were humiliated by the implications of same in Adscam.
So come March 20…six days before Charest’s electoral D-day, Harper’s budget will offer a cornucopia of fiscal favours to Quebec and he will cozy up to Charest with so many promises it could only be described as fiscal promiscuity. Quebec will have to decide if it is only the price of their soul we are talking about or the fact of their soul.
It is going to be a fundamental and future changing week for Canada, never mind the shenanigans of Harper and Charest. My guess is Quebec will take the money, Charest will win, the PQ Boisclair will be a bust and told by his party to hit the road and Dumont will hold the balance of Quebec power at the end or the day. Then Dion will force the federal election on the Harper Budget and the future of Canada as a nation will once again be at play.
Bookmark your favourite iconoclastic Blogs and columnists for frequent reading that week. It is going to be fascinating.
Sunday, February 18, 2007
A Perfect Image of Harper's Preferred Supreme Court
HARPER'S JUDGES
If a picture is worth a 1000 words, then an inspired political cartoon is worth 10,000 of them. Cartoonist, deAdder's brilliance shows through and he captures the essence of Prime Minister Harper's end game on Judicial Review Committee political meddling. There is a fine line between laughing and weeping but this cartoon made me do both!
If a picture is worth a 1000 words, then an inspired political cartoon is worth 10,000 of them. Cartoonist, deAdder's brilliance shows through and he captures the essence of Prime Minister Harper's end game on Judicial Review Committee political meddling. There is a fine line between laughing and weeping but this cartoon made me do both!
THOMSON IN AFGHANISTAN
I posted earlier on Graham Thomson, the Edmonton Journal political columnist going to Afghanistan. His piece today puts what is happening and how difficult it is to have a positive outcome for the Afghan people. Staying the course and keeping our eye on the long run is key to being effective. Thanks Graham for the insights and information. Keep them coming.
THANKS TO LYLE OBERG
Kudos to Alberta's Finance Minister Lyle Oberg on his clarity and context on what equalization is and how it works. The Edmonton Journal Editorial Board and mark Lisac's Insight Into Government both comment on Dr. Oberg's enlightened approach this week. I get pretty hard on Dr. Oberg from time to time, but he has busted a Ralph Klein era myth that equalization is somehow a punishment by Ottawa on Alberta. I have posted on this in the past too.
I posted earlier on Graham Thomson, the Edmonton Journal political columnist going to Afghanistan. His piece today puts what is happening and how difficult it is to have a positive outcome for the Afghan people. Staying the course and keeping our eye on the long run is key to being effective. Thanks Graham for the insights and information. Keep them coming.
THANKS TO LYLE OBERG
Kudos to Alberta's Finance Minister Lyle Oberg on his clarity and context on what equalization is and how it works. The Edmonton Journal Editorial Board and mark Lisac's Insight Into Government both comment on Dr. Oberg's enlightened approach this week. I get pretty hard on Dr. Oberg from time to time, but he has busted a Ralph Klein era myth that equalization is somehow a punishment by Ottawa on Alberta. I have posted on this in the past too.
There are real issues of Alberta's role in confederation we need to deal with. Now Lyle has to sit down with his PC Leadership Campaign supporter, Guy Boutilier, the new Alberta Intergovernmental Affairs Minister, and explain how Alberta fits in Canada in terms of equalization, and perhaps otherwise too. Guy's recent comments show he does not get it yet.
UPDATE: FEB 19: Excellent piece by Robert Roach of the Canada West Foundation in the Edmonton Journal today on equalization.
Saturday, February 17, 2007
Diefenbaker Was Right...Polls Are for Dogs!
Some trivia, trivialization and triteness for your late night consideration! I booted up this blog this evening and was thrilled to have a total of 917 votes on the site “poll” that asks which leader do you trust on environment issues? The poll on my blog site says 37% of you think no leader can be trusted on environmental policy. This site based “polling” is not only unscientific…it is not even dependable enough to be considered non-scientific. But it is fun.
All but some 100 poll participants of the 917 totally“random respondents” happened on the site this Saturday night. Lots of lonely misanthropes out there I expect. I think it is time for you to take your 8 Tracks and donate them to Value Village. It will be an opportunity to advance society as you know it, feel good about yourselves and get on with your lives.
I am flattered to have been “invaded” because it implies I have more influence than I deserve. Yes only a lawyer could be that arrogant. The other reality is that such site based polls are more pathetic then prescient. I prefer to think of them on both criteria of, non-prescient and yes they can be pathologically pathetic too. But they can be fun.
That said, I welcome the 917 citizens who have taken the time to make both points and demonstrate the folly of such “polls” (aka surveys) in general. In fact I expect the 917 “visitors” to my site are no less self selecting but slightly more “robotic” than those found to respond to traditional polling processes...but I could be wrong…do not mistake this comment for sincerity – it is unadorned and purely feigned humility.
That said again, I will continue the folly and offer such “polls” on this site. The questions in the future may be more appropriate to the "mind set" of the robotic respondents however. We need to focus so we meet the needs of this audience that I have attracted. I want them to feel welcome and to come back to the blog because they could be the essence of the George Bush “base” that inevitably want ot relocate troops into Canada when he pulls them out of Iraq. He needs the troops to go somewhere to s4cure oil supplies. He needs an alternative for returning troops other than unemployment for the next year so his term can end on a high note patriotically. Why not have the disenchanted retreating Bush Republicans become more appreciative of their northern energy alternatrive - Canuckistan? I hope this blog helps?
Please come back to this blog often you robotics, retreating Republicans and Harper Cons and invade the polls at will and even feel free to comment on occasion - but only if you are sentient.
I come from the premise that the best way to support democracy is to lie to a pollster. I am hardly a pollster but admire the "dissing" inherent in the civil disobedience, the prank-like dishonesty and intellectual disingenuousness exemplified by such a "poll" invasion. Such participation has invigourated this little blog site, perched as we are way out here on the edge of the blogosphere.
I neither honour nor salute you but I do offer you my indulgence. What questions would you like to see posed on this blog that are so trite that the answers will symbolize the essence of vagueness and vaccuousness (presuming that is a word)? Please no Anna Nicole Smith suggestions please. She has already had more MSM coverage than 9/11…there are limits of tolerance in the universe of tripe!
All but some 100 poll participants of the 917 totally“random respondents” happened on the site this Saturday night. Lots of lonely misanthropes out there I expect. I think it is time for you to take your 8 Tracks and donate them to Value Village. It will be an opportunity to advance society as you know it, feel good about yourselves and get on with your lives.
I am flattered to have been “invaded” because it implies I have more influence than I deserve. Yes only a lawyer could be that arrogant. The other reality is that such site based polls are more pathetic then prescient. I prefer to think of them on both criteria of, non-prescient and yes they can be pathologically pathetic too. But they can be fun.
That said, I welcome the 917 citizens who have taken the time to make both points and demonstrate the folly of such “polls” (aka surveys) in general. In fact I expect the 917 “visitors” to my site are no less self selecting but slightly more “robotic” than those found to respond to traditional polling processes...but I could be wrong…do not mistake this comment for sincerity – it is unadorned and purely feigned humility.
That said again, I will continue the folly and offer such “polls” on this site. The questions in the future may be more appropriate to the "mind set" of the robotic respondents however. We need to focus so we meet the needs of this audience that I have attracted. I want them to feel welcome and to come back to the blog because they could be the essence of the George Bush “base” that inevitably want ot relocate troops into Canada when he pulls them out of Iraq. He needs the troops to go somewhere to s4cure oil supplies. He needs an alternative for returning troops other than unemployment for the next year so his term can end on a high note patriotically. Why not have the disenchanted retreating Bush Republicans become more appreciative of their northern energy alternatrive - Canuckistan? I hope this blog helps?
Please come back to this blog often you robotics, retreating Republicans and Harper Cons and invade the polls at will and even feel free to comment on occasion - but only if you are sentient.
I come from the premise that the best way to support democracy is to lie to a pollster. I am hardly a pollster but admire the "dissing" inherent in the civil disobedience, the prank-like dishonesty and intellectual disingenuousness exemplified by such a "poll" invasion. Such participation has invigourated this little blog site, perched as we are way out here on the edge of the blogosphere.
I neither honour nor salute you but I do offer you my indulgence. What questions would you like to see posed on this blog that are so trite that the answers will symbolize the essence of vagueness and vaccuousness (presuming that is a word)? Please no Anna Nicole Smith suggestions please. She has already had more MSM coverage than 9/11…there are limits of tolerance in the universe of tripe!
Is Harper More Audacious Than Authentic?
Prime Minister Harper’s trustworthiness and integrity is starting to go into meltdown. His audacity outstrips his gall given reports on his comments and political stance in light of the RCMP single criminal breach of trust charge on the Income Trust investigation.
His obstreperous refusal to pull or at the very least change his French language attack ad to correct what is clearly misrepresents the facts on Ralph Goodale’s relationship to the Income Trust investigation based on the RCMP findings. This attitude is reprehensible for someone who aspires to be a national leader and an avatar for Canadian values of fairness and honesty.
His original Harper government stance on Bill C-288 that requires some government planning on how we might meet Kyoto targets this last week, was reckless and disrespectful of democracy. Harper’s government said it was “toothless” and denied it would have any application to his Conservative government. This Bill, regardless of if it is good or bad, has been passed in the House of Commons by the duly elected representatives of the citizens of Canada. It is now in the Senate for approval and on its way to soon becoming the law of the land.
NO politician, not even the Prime Minister of the country has the luxury of ignoring the law. Harper has belatedly come to his senses and has now given a half-hearted acknowledgement that he will be bound by the law. Thank you very much Mr. Prime Minister, for that concession to democracy and to the rule of law.
Speaking of the rule of law, the intrusive political meddling of Prime Minister Harper in the Justice Review Committee process adds to Canadians diminishing confidence in his character and competence to govern. Winning an election with tactics and guile is one thing. Governing with wisdom and authenticity is something entirely different. It appears now that Prime Minister Harper may have imbued with oodles of the form talents but have a dangerous dearth of the latter.
The MSM and blogosphere is starting to pile up with commentary on the clear and present danger Mr. Harper’s approach to politics and governance represents. In the face of such a threat, the typical citizen’s cynicism, skepticism and indifference of the recent past are dangerous responses with dire consequences.
Canadians had better engage and become active in the political process and consciously and conscientiously participate in the next election. Otherwise “their” government will be made up of fundamentalists and ideologues with a nasty brutish and short temperament.
These people are on a mission to control and limit our personal freedoms and to impose their own prescribed moralistic value set on the rest of society. In a free and democratic society they have every right to pursue those ends within the democratic means of open and free elections.
In a democracy with majority rule we always get the kind of government we deserve, even if we did not select it ourselves due to indifference. Majority rule is a myth if a majority of citizens do not even show up to vote. Remember the world is run by those who show up! Canadians better show up in this next election and send a clear message about what kind of Canada they want. We have to “take back” our government by informing ourselves on the issues and then voting our own consciousness…but voting for sure.
His obstreperous refusal to pull or at the very least change his French language attack ad to correct what is clearly misrepresents the facts on Ralph Goodale’s relationship to the Income Trust investigation based on the RCMP findings. This attitude is reprehensible for someone who aspires to be a national leader and an avatar for Canadian values of fairness and honesty.
His original Harper government stance on Bill C-288 that requires some government planning on how we might meet Kyoto targets this last week, was reckless and disrespectful of democracy. Harper’s government said it was “toothless” and denied it would have any application to his Conservative government. This Bill, regardless of if it is good or bad, has been passed in the House of Commons by the duly elected representatives of the citizens of Canada. It is now in the Senate for approval and on its way to soon becoming the law of the land.
NO politician, not even the Prime Minister of the country has the luxury of ignoring the law. Harper has belatedly come to his senses and has now given a half-hearted acknowledgement that he will be bound by the law. Thank you very much Mr. Prime Minister, for that concession to democracy and to the rule of law.
Speaking of the rule of law, the intrusive political meddling of Prime Minister Harper in the Justice Review Committee process adds to Canadians diminishing confidence in his character and competence to govern. Winning an election with tactics and guile is one thing. Governing with wisdom and authenticity is something entirely different. It appears now that Prime Minister Harper may have imbued with oodles of the form talents but have a dangerous dearth of the latter.
The MSM and blogosphere is starting to pile up with commentary on the clear and present danger Mr. Harper’s approach to politics and governance represents. In the face of such a threat, the typical citizen’s cynicism, skepticism and indifference of the recent past are dangerous responses with dire consequences.
Canadians had better engage and become active in the political process and consciously and conscientiously participate in the next election. Otherwise “their” government will be made up of fundamentalists and ideologues with a nasty brutish and short temperament.
These people are on a mission to control and limit our personal freedoms and to impose their own prescribed moralistic value set on the rest of society. In a free and democratic society they have every right to pursue those ends within the democratic means of open and free elections.
In a democracy with majority rule we always get the kind of government we deserve, even if we did not select it ourselves due to indifference. Majority rule is a myth if a majority of citizens do not even show up to vote. Remember the world is run by those who show up! Canadians better show up in this next election and send a clear message about what kind of Canada they want. We have to “take back” our government by informing ourselves on the issues and then voting our own consciousness…but voting for sure.
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