Poll Shows Harper Is In Trouble With Canadians

Nic Nanos, Canada’s most accurate political pollster says the Liberals are now neck and neck with the Harper Party (a.k.a. the Conservative Party of Canada). The national poll was done Jan 3-7 and is accurate3 to +/- 3.1 percent and shows the Liberals with 34% (up 4 points since Nov) and the Cons with 33% (up 1 point since Nov).

My how the mediocre have fallen. While Harper is leading in the “Who do you think will make the best PM ?” But he is stalled at 36%. Not good at a time when we are well into serious recession, deficits and other fiscal adjustment. These are things the duplicitous Mr. Harper insisted would not happen under his superior skills and an economist and fiscal manage.

On the other hand Michael Ignatieff has soared up 12% to 23% support as the best choice for PM and he has barely opened his mouth yet…except to warn Harper, rather forcefully and effectively, if he tries character assassination attack ads again, like he did on Dion, the response will be significantly different and undoubtedly harmful to the Cons.

The Cons have been in retreat on every political front since the Coalition came forth with an alternative game plan to run the country. Harper is moving through the various stages of grief since the lost opportunity of the election. Yes he lost. He was after a majority and could deliver it even though h e had all the trump cards and superior tactical skills on his side.

Here are the Five Stages of Grief and how Harper has been responding and coping.

DENIAL: Happened right after the election when he squandered the majority over $45m of culture cuts and lost Quebec in the bargain. Harper’s rhetoric as “We won. We have a mandate to govern.” In his heart, yes he has one; he was saying “This can’t be happening to me.”

ANGER: Here we saw the anger in the pettiness and partisanship in the FU Canada (Fiscal Update) statements where he tired to bankrupt the opposition political parties and refuse women human rights to pursue pay equity and take away public service unions right to strike. The anger in Harper’s heart came out as he tried to punish other people for his own shortcomings. He almost lost his government because his anger has clouded his judgment and impaired his capacity to govern.

BARGAINING: First he struck a bargain with the Governor General to prorogue Parliament just to save his political skin. Now he is into bargaining with and around the opposition parties as he tries to draft a stimulus budget. He has stuck a committee of independent advisers to help with the budget. By doing so, he as emasculated his own Cabinet and reduced their role from mute minion to meaningless munchkins. His rhetoric now s “We will do whatever it takes to get through these tough economic times.” His heart of hearts tells him it is OK to reverse your political and personal principles to sustain power. Never mind that we mislead and lied in the election. That was then. This is now. Keep power at all costs.

DEPRESSION: We have seen the early signs of depression with the appointment of 18 Senators. His prior commitment to not appoint any Senators until he got his senate reforms done is now in the integrity slag heap. He has given up on reforming the Senate and now only wants to pursue the perks of Prime Ministerial power while he has it. Senate reform is added to the pile of broken promises and past positions of the depressed and depressing Mr. Harper that grows daily. Now he sees that he can no longer trigger an election at his whim. That is now in Ignatieff’s power. Harper knows that he will wear the political consequences of this economic recession cum depression, how can Harper the superior economics, master tactician and political wunderkind. He is coming to realize that due to hubris, history will not be kind to President Bush nor Prime Minister Harper. Pretty depressing stuff to have to deal with, given the size of the Harper ego and the depth of his arrogance!

The last stage of grief is Acceptance. We have a ways to go in the Bargaining and Depression stages before that stage comes into play. But rest assured it Acceptance will happen. It will come right after he loses the next election and it will be manifest as Harper resigns the leadership of the Conservative Party of Canada as a result.

The CAPP Oil Sands Survey - Is it Informative or Misleading?

Yesterday the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers (CAPP) released two opinion polls on the Alberta oil sands and said the results gave “…the oil sands industry a candid perspective on the views of Canadians on the development of the oil sands.”


The CAPP new release quotes Imperial Oil CEO Bruce March saying “Canadians are telling us that we need to do better. We have received a clear message: the economic and energy security benefits of the oil sands cannot come at the expense of the environment.” Here! Here!

HAS THE OIL INDUSTRY HAD A CHANGE OF HEART?
I applaud the effort of CAPP to better understand what sustainable and responsible oil sands development means. The hearts and minds of the project developers may be coming around and the attitudes may be changing from the arrogant and threatening approaches they assumed in response to the Royalty Review Panel proposals. They even when over the line so far as to sponsor an Astroturf website on the royalty issues back in the day.

There is good work being done by some enlightened oil sands developers that on mitigation and some even on prevention of environmental impacts but it is late coming and sporadic, to say the best.

PUBLIC OPINION POLLING IS AS MUCH ART AS IT IS SCIENCE
I am not a pollster or a statistician but I am a student of public opinion and public policy. But boy-oh-boy the process, content and presentation of the CAPP surveys shows that they still have lots to learn about being clear, transparent and accountable when they do public opinion research reporting.

We sponsor a lot of research for clients of value drivers on public policy issues and we know how much of an art it is. Read the great piece in the Globe and Mail over the unreliability and huge “margin of error” in the monthly Stats Can unemployment report. Heather Scoffield’s piece entitled “Extremely Influential, Notoriously Unreliable” says it all but read the column for an in depth review of this reality.

IS THIS JUST A "PR" EXERCISE?
Is this poll and its release just a communications exercise? The language of the news release indicates it is more than just PR but the process, results and the lack of rigour (to put it politely) in the presentation makes CAPP's intentions suspect.


Here are some of the difficulties I have. The methodology shows that we do not actually have a survey of “Canadians” as the news release touts. We have a barely adequate same of 425 Edmontonians in one instance and 429 Torontonians in the second survey. While Torontonians may presume they speak for Canadians. As an Edmontonian, I can assure you we share no such presumptions. CAPP knows better.

The small sample size means the margin of error is very large, 4.8% and there were two different time frames for each survey. Edmonton was surveyed in the first half of June and Toronto was done later in the month and into July. This difference in timing could make them two very different and non-comparable survey results.

What if 500 ducks drowned in oil sands tailing ponds mid June and not in April? That would impact and change the opinions of one survey to the next. Obama was campaigning on dirty oil and Dion was into his Green Shift in June of 2008 and there was lots of media happening. Why didn't they survey both cities at the same time? And why did they only do two cities and not a national survey? beats me.


PRESENTATION OF RESULTS LEAVES MUCH TO BE DESIRED
The presentation of the pie charts doesn’t show the data used to calculate the charts. They also say the results are the “mean of the first and second represented.” Why did they do that and why use means? Providing the actual numbers would be so helpful to reassure that this presentation is accurate and representative.

The Public Policy Priorities question is framed around the “next federal election” and the “next provincial election.” Why would they tie the question to a federal election that is not contemplated or even wanted and provincial elections are a long way off in Alberta and Ontario?


Why not just ask what are your public policy priorities and not politicize the question if you are look for authentic data? Tying it to and hypothetical election means the dominant answer is going to likely be “Other/No Opinion.” That skews the results and its usefulness. Take out the “Other /No Opinion and the top three are consistent as Economy, Healthcare and Environment. Note Climate Change is separate from Environment and #4.

The findings on the “…greatest environmental concerns about the oil sands activity in Alberta” are essentially the same as we found in our Discrete Choice Modeling survey done in November 2006. The top 2 value drivers in our survey were Habitat Protection and Carbon Emissions. They were followed closely by water use and reclamation concerns. Only about 25% has no concerns or no opinion. CAPP finds does not even ask about tailing ponds and reclamation in its survey which was done 2 months after the drowning of 500 migrating ducks in a tailing pond. Why not, given the timing? It was news all around the world.

The Bar Graphs in the CAPP presentation uses a typical technique that can mislead and even go so far as to misrepresent the data. The “Y” (vertical) axis usually is presented as a 100% scale. That way there is a sense of relative opinions between alternative answers and the overall impact of the results. CAPP never uses 100% in its “Y” axis presentation and that gives a skewed appearance to the data.

They top out their graph presentations at 60%, 50%, 45% and40%. On the very last question, the biggie about if people think it is possible to balance economic benefits and protect the environment they use 70%top scale. They had to because the results showed 60% of Edmontonians and 50%+ (we are not sure of the exact number based on the presentation) agree this is possible.

Not using 100% on the “Y” axis can be seen as a “slick” presentation technique. Not doing the “Y” axis consistently in the presentation is even worse. This does nothing to help provide clarity and consistence and meaningful representation of the data. Again the lack of the actual numbers used to calculate the graphs is an omission that is irritating at least.

I know of some of the great science-based environmental work some individual oil sand developers are doing. I want to give CAPP and the oil sands industry generally the benefit of the doubt but they don’t make it easy.


I will deal with the implications of the findings of the survey in more detail in a later post.

Syncrude Sued over 500 Dead Ducks in a Tailings Pond

The world of oil sands development just got a lot more complicated today. Ecojustice launched a private prosecution against Syncrude Canada this morning over the tailing pond drowning of 500 migrating ducks last April. This event has become symbolic about the ecological concerns around oil sands development, and tailing ponds in particular.


The action is under the Federal Migratory Birds Convention Act that prohibits deposit of harmful substances in areas frequented by migratory birds. This action is aimed at Syncrude but also targets the Canadian and Alberta government on issues of enforcement of environment protection legislation. Both governments promised to pursue the environmental legal issues at the time of the ducks drowning from the residual oil in the tailing ponds.

A recent science-based study on oil sand impact on migratory birds was released by Alberta’s Pembina Institute, the Boreal Songbird Initiative and the Natural Resources Defense Council based in Washington D.C.


The potential long term impact of oil sands development on all migratory birds in the Alberta portion of the Boreal Forest ranged from 6 million to 166 million bird lost in a 30-50 year period, depending on the pace and nature of oil sands development.

This new legal action launched against Syncrude is supported by Sierra Club and Forest Ethics. Forest Ethics are the same folks who effectively took on the Canadian forestry industry a decade ago with the famous full page Victoria’s Secret ads in major American newspapers.

The accusation being made against Alberta and Canada governments are the long delay in prosecuting the “wildlife disaster” of the 500 dead ducks and enforcing the law. The reasons for the legal action expressed by the sponsoring ENGOs is wildlife and human health concerns all around the tailing ponds and oil sands development practices.

There is another Alberta government study in process and pending release on concerns of human health in the aboriginal populations in Fort Chipewyan, down steam from the oil sands. There is no indication when that human health study will be completed and released publicly either.

At a recent meeting in Edmonton with experts and industry dealing with oil sands tailing ponds an industry spokesperson suggested that the solution for the toxic tailing ponds would be to clean up the water and release it into the Athabasca River.

These stewardship and environmental issues on oil sands development are getting more complicated and more energized as time goes on. In our November 2007 research we polled 4600 Albertans on their values about oil sands development. We found the most important issue of concern was habitat protection. CO2, water usage and reclamation were also major concerns from our study. The drowning death of 500 ducks has most of these elements gathered together in one tragic and resonant event.

Stay tuned. With Obama’s environment and economic transformation agenda, this drama has only just begun.

Media Layoffs Threaten Journalism

With the layoffs in MSM and the decline of journalism will the blogosphere mature enough to help fill the gap? Most political bloggers I know do it for free...not without bias - but that is usually obvious and stated up front.

We bloggers don't usually break news. We respond and comment on the stories in the MSM for the most part. Can bloggers become more like professional journalists? Should we? I think No and No!

Blogging is not professional journalism...but could it be an alternative in the hands of some well trained and dedicated folks? But doing it for a living? I admit blogging is good for business but my business is not blogging. I don't see an workable business model for blogging...or am I missing something?

That said, where will be get authoritative, authentic and informative news if the MSM as well know it disappears?

Uncle Jay Explains: Jan. 5, 2009

Monday's suck. But Uncle Jay and his Monday explanation of the news are a little bit of sunshine in a cold and dark winter's day. Insightful and funny. Enjoy

Believing is Seeing in Politics and Life

The very quotable Marshall McLuhan once said “I wouldn’t have seen it if I hadn’t believed it.” We are all subject to this subjectivity and selectivity in how we allocate our time and attention and our opinions. We will also tend to ignore new information or contrary data that does not fit our preconceived notions, beliefs and opinions.

WARNING! This is a longer post than usual...so relax and reflect with me for a few minutes.

Reading Lorne Gunter’s column in the Edmonton Journal this morning gave me a chance to reflect on just how this can work. Lorne is a noted columnist of the “right” persuasion and a fan of conservative policy and ideology. When you read him you can clearly see that frame of reference. What was interesting me this morning was to consider what he sees when he looks at certain events and what he concludes from them given what we know about his political beliefs. This is not unique to Lorne. We all do it but we should all try to be aware of it and try to be open to other points of view. Especially if you are trying to run a country with a minority government.

The Conservatives think they unconditionally won the last election. But they do not have a majority and therefore have to learn to govern with a compromising consciousness. Unlike the last Parliament, they now have to accommodate enough opposition objectives or they risk defeat. This is a bitter pill for Harper to swallow. His recent FU Canada (Fiscal Update) showed that he not only gagged on the bitter pill of policy compromise and political accommodation, he damn near choked on it. As a result he enabled and emboldened a Liberal–NDP coalition that was ready, willing and able to defeat and replace him. Harper cut and ran to the Gov Gen and begged her to prorogue Parliament to avoid a non-confidence vote he was destined to lose.

In that context I read the Gunter’s piece and about what he sees and seems to believe about Ignatieff and the coalition. To reinforce McLuhan’s comment, I offer some of my own believing is seeing observations on the same issues and events. I too have a filter and a lens through which I view the world. Go figure.

THE COALITION IS DEAD! LONG LIVE THE COALITION!
Lorne’s piece invites us to “…assume the coalition is dead (and 99.9 percent is)” and that “...Ignatieff is keeping the possibility of a coalition alive rhetorically because without the threat of the coalition toppling the Tories…the Liberals’ bargaining position would be greatly weakened.” “It is not…in Ignatieff’s interests over the next three to six months to keep the collation alive.”

It seems both wishful and wistful thinking to invite us to assume the coalition is dead. There is still a signed agreement outlining it terms and conditions of the coalition and how it would operate. In that sense it is very much alive and full of political potential. Its sole purpose is to be a threat to topple the Tories, and then govern, if necessary. If the Tories don’t govern like a respectful minority government there will be a non-confidence vote to turf them. The coalition may not form the next government as a result of defeating the Tories. What if the GG decides there should be an election instead? Given that possibility, the coalition is hardly a "power grab" by some opposition political leaders as Harper's hype would try to sell us.

Besides, this possibility of a coalition is exactly how our parliamentary system of government works. It is not a sinister plot by Ignatieff and Layton. It is their duty as opposition to keep testing and trying the government. So keeping the coalition alive, even if it is in hibernation for the winter, is very much in Igantieff’s best interest in his duty to keep the government on it toes or to cut the toes off if they cross the line.

IGNATIEFF IS TOO AMERICAN TO LEAD CANADA!
Lorne implies Ignatieff is more American than Canadian referencing a “…old New York Times column championing American empire and referring to ‘we’ Americans."

My gosh how defensive can you get? Ignatieff has returned to Canada, run for a party leadership, coming in second, and the successfully ran for parliament and is now the interim leader of choice of the Liberal Caucus and party elite. Besides he has already effectively responded to the context of such “we” American slurs in subsequent essays and interviews. In the globalized reality and our closeness to the Americans, one would think Ignatieff's education, expertise, international and first-hand American experience would be an asset. Surely it ought not disqualify him from Canadian politics.

This is typical and tired Conservative rhetoric akin to American Republican Karl Rovarian tactics. If anyone has been American in their approach to governing Canada it has been Stephen Harper. His foreign policy and economic policy totally aligned with the Bush White House. This is well documented. His adoption of a presidential style of leadership is also renown, even to the point he now speaks to us on policy issues and events through a Press Secretary, just like President Bush.

IGNAGIEFF SEEMS TO ACCEPT QUEBEC AS A SEPARATE NATION!
Lorne suggests Ignatieff will “…have to live down his signature on the coalition agreement.” The reason is because the “…first line talks about the coalition begin in the best interests of ‘Canada and Quebec,’ as if the two were separate nations already.”

Interesting admission that there is an actual coalition agreement that exists don’t you think? So lets deal with the merits of the comment. Stephen Harper set up his last election run by publicly acknowledging “Quebec as a nation.” He also said, contrary to all the evidence, that there was a “fiscal imbalance” against Quebec’s interests within Canada and that he would resolve it as Prime Minister. Both of these are soft-nationalists hot buttons and have been used for political pandering purposes for decades, all the way back to Mulroney at least.

Cynical political opportunism was at the root of Harper’s pandering to Quebec in this way. By the way, Harper conveniently ignores the historical fact that he came into federal politics through the Reform Party. Reform started as a political force partly in reaction to such federal government pandering to Quebec.

The Reform Party had a platform plank about too much political control in central Canada. The Reform mantra Harper also espoused was “The West Wants In.” He actually fans the flames of separation in Alberta every time he does this Quebec pandering. His recent political tactics toward Quebec have had that effect in Alberta recently.

Ironically Harper was one of the signatories to the famous Alberta Firewall Letter encouraging Premier Klein to extricate Alberta from some core Canadian policies and programs. Talk about living down signatures and engaging in political opportunism! Harper’s name comes up more often than anyone else’s in recent history if those are your criteria for criticism.

WE NEED TO BECOME MORE POLITICALLY AWARE AND MORE MEDIA LITERATE
There more. But my point is Lorne’s lens focuses on issues and events but only in a certain context. We all do this and it is our right to speak out in a free and democratic country. What citizens need to be aware of and careful about is taking some time to get more media literate.

As traditional media’s effectiveness and even its viability is being threatened by fragmentation, competition and recession, its capacity to gather and give us the news is diminished. The Internet’s influence as a news source is growing. According to Pew Research, it is ranked and the #2 new source now, behind TV and ahead of newspapers.

If the Web is now a significant news source, where will the authoritativeness and authenticity of the “reporting” we can trust come from? How will we know we can trust and believe news and information when we actually see those items that capture our time and attention? Who will help us understand what is important and critical versus what is trivial and superficial? How will know if something we see, hear or read is just misleading spin or pure and dangerous propaganda?

We all have more data and information than we can handle. Where will the wisdom come from to help us make sense of all those inputs? How will we be able to put it all into a meaningful context in ways that creates some useful knowledge that we can believe in if and when we see it?

Beats me! Anybody out there got any ideas?

01/03/09: President-elect Obama's Weekly Address

What are the chances Pariah Minister Harper will approach the future of Canada with the same clarity, sentiment and caring as Obama does in this weekly message to Americans? Harper has a chance to be relevant, resolved and significant when he meets with the First Ministers on January 16 in preparation for the Budget due on January 27.

I'd say the chances of him getting it, being forthright and showing genuine concerned about us and our country instead of his own politcial neck are between slim and none --- and slim just left town.

Wassup 2008

I have a soft spot for dark humour. This bit of darkness shows the fine line between comedy and tragedy, between beer ads and personal vulnerability.

A perfect prologue for what is coming. Change!

Themes of Hope Change Optimism and Anxiety Are All Part of the New Year.

As I get focused and down to some serious work this morning, Friday January 2, 2009 (the first time I have typed 2009 – feels weird!)I am struck by some pieces I read this morning.

The first is by Sarah van Gelder of the Huffington Post. She writes about “10 Reasons to be Hopeful About 2009 –and 3 Reasons to be Terrified.”

It is an interesting American take on what is happening as we emerge into 2009 facing very different realities than the last decade. Here fears were about runaway climate change, loose nukes and societal breakdown she describes as a potential “Mad Max World.” All valid but I want to focus on her message of hope and positive change potentials.

I really liked her optimism over “young people stepping up and how they “infused the country with the ‘Yes, we can’ spirit.” We need that young people’s infusion of a democratic spirit to happen in Canada in inevitable election coming 2009. She sees overwhelming support emerging in the States for “universal health care and notes “A majority of Americans favor a tax-supported single-payer system like Canada’s.” The waning of corporate power is a reason to be hopeful too and Obama permeated all the hope and change points she makes.

The second was by Timothy Garton Ash who hangs out at Stanford and Oxford and wrote an Op-Ed in the Globe and Mail today entitled “2009 Capitalism on the Ropes.” His theme is that there are “hard choices ahead on the road back to prosperity.” He calls for a review of the shelf-worn brand of free market capitalism of the past two decades and calls for a re-balancing of the “…state and market, public and private, the visible and the invisible hand.”

Government is no longer a dirty word thanks to Obama. What government seems to be doing in the face of the market meltdown, according to Ash, is “desperate improvisation.” This improvisation is due to the urgency of the situation caused by swiftness, depth and global reach of the meltdown. This economic calamity has seemed to happen virtually overnight. It has been building to a tipping point was fed by years of excessive deregulation, poor monitoring and enforcement of bank and other regulations and the extreme greed of some corporatist.

Obama talked about change and hope. I think we have to reverse the order and hope for change. It is now going to be personal as we see millions of people fall into serious uncertainty about their future. Growth at any cost, including degradation of the environment and erosion of social cohesion and decline of personal security is no longer acceptable.

When we all come out of this recession we need to be better people if we hope to be better off and happier in the future. We need to re-engage as citizens and participate in our democracy and civil society. We need to redefine success beyond consumption and include concepts like conservation, preservation and equity in a new success paradigm. We need to retool our institutions and invent some new ones to face the realities of global economic, ecological and societal interdependence. We need wiser leaders who are called to public service and not motivated by personal or political power as we have seen in recent times.

I am interested in what others think about the reasons, rationales and readiness for hope and change as we plunge into recession and the inevitable recalibration of our economies and communities. As Lily Tomlin once said, “We are all in this alone, together.” I look forward to your comments.

(Photo credit to .Hessam from Flickr)

Ode To Joy

Watching this Muppet video makes me realize that we may all need to slow down in 2009. It may help to slow down a bit if we want to truly express our talents.

It begs the question if we can even survive the pace we have created for ourselves or allowed ourselves to be caught up in.

Uncle Jay Explains: Year-end! 12-22-08

Lessons to be learned in the Christmas Spirit in familiar "themes." Hat Tip to Challenging the Commonplace Blog.

Some Political Predictions and Observations for Canada and Alberta

I have been challenged by some friends and regular readers of this Blog to make some bold predictions for 2009. They come a bit easier if you look at the future through a values lens and not just an events lens. Based on some of our research on Albertan’s value drivers and with an extrapolation of those findings here are a few predictions for 2009.

YES ANOTHER FEDERAL ELECTION IN 2009. It will be early June or in the fall, depending on if Harper can move beyond his personal agenda and get serious about governing the country. The ballot question will be which leader you distrust the least to govern. If Harper fails to get a majority he is toast, just butter him.

I think Harper is past his prime and he will get a notably lower popular vote next election especially in Quebec and Ontario. Iggy benefits as a result of the Harper fatigue that is growing in the land. Iggy will be given a shot at leading the country but will only get yet another minority government. It will be our 4th in a row as Canada tries to work out its future direction and design its destiny. A Liberal coalition with the NDP will happen and not require the Bloc to participate to be viable. A coalition government will be seen by many electoral reform types as an experiment of what governing in a proportional representation voting model would be like.''

There is no Harper successor in the conservative wings, other than Prentice, who is the most obvious. But Prentice is not a natural replacement because he would be the 4th leader in a row from Alberta. That is not likely to happen take over unless the membership, in what has become Harper Party, evaporates in the Maritimes and Ontario and if only the west shows up to select a new leader.

A SEA CHANGE IN THE PUBLIC MOOD: There is a sea change in the national mood coming as well in 2009. It will be most dramatic in the form of a move away from the destructive and tiresome Bush league neo-republican political tactics that defined the Harper style and regime. His demise however will leave Canada without any strong and substantive federal political parties in this critical time. The political parties will come through the next election all lacking modern organizational capacity, enough money, strategic campaign capacity and effective and definitive leadership.

I see some dangerous times ahead for Canadian democracy as we try, as a country, to work our way through a serious and game-changing recession and the implications of the economic power shift to Alberta. Drift and confusion will prevail as partisans dive into desperate searches for new style political saviour/leaders that they (and we) can trust to govern not just win elections. We will long for new leaders who have ability, energy and enthusiasm for the job of governing and who also understand the nature and essence of the country. We will latch on to an effective leader who can communicate with a personal resonance and activating and invigorating vision for the country.

INDIFFERENCE TURNS TO ANGER AND ANXIETY: Citizen’s indifference towards politics in 2008 will turn to fear and anxiety in 2009 as a sense of foreboding and uncertainty sets the political mood. Such attitudes will colour the policy agenda as we wait for a miraculous leadership messiah to deliver us and perhaps help us adapt to the new world order. If we don’t see this new style leader emerging, Canadians will emotionally align with Obama. He will come to be seen as the best Prime Minister Canada never had as we will shift our focus on new American policy and governing models in a search for meaning in Canada.

WITHER ALBERTA? Alberta will feel the pain of the rest of Canada but we will weather the global recession better than anywhere else in the country. We will see people migrating here in droves again in the second half of 2009 looking for work as oil prices recover and stabilize in the $50-80 range. People will come to Alberta wanting jobs so they can pay taxes. They are not going to be coming just because Alberta taxes are low.


THE ALBERTA "BRAND" Alberta will be seen increasingly as the unrepentant bad-boy on the environment as carbon concerns accelerate and climate change becomes personal. This is especially going to be true if Alberta’s government pursues a counter-attack policy of spending $25million for a paid advertising campaign. This foolishness appears to be based on old-style “branding” techniques using messaging and positioning instead of sound policy and effective mitigation action. The rise of Web 2.0 and social media proliferation will make such old school approaches look and be laughable.

We Albertans have already lost the credibility battle on the emotional framing of oil sands versus tar sands in the world's consciousness and consequences of this very important energy resource. A slick and glossy paid media campaign aimed at getting out a countervailing “message” will be seen as a green wash and erode our credibility even further. Albertans want to be proud of how they are responsibly and sustainably developing the oil sands for wealth creation now and for future generations. Green washing old school attempts to buy media manufactured messaging will embarrass us.

LEADERSHIP SHORTFALLS: Alberta policy makers have yet to show that they get it. "It" is a clear and demonstrated consciousness about the intertwined nature of economy and environment and how it is best used to serve and reflect the social needs and values of the citizens. “It” is an integrated triple bottom line comprehensive and long term view of wise and responsible oil sands development.

As Premier Stelmach said in the last Alberta election, and I paraphrase: "...the environment trumps economic development and leadership trumps issues (management). I have seen some, but not enough, evidence of sound public policy on the ground that shows me this insight is an operational governing conviction and not election rhetoric.

In political Alberta and political Canada I will be looking for signs of leadership based on lessons learned from past mistakes, earned public trust, obvious character and intellectual integrity with demonstrated authenticity and a commitment to renewal. These are the key political, business and community leadership talismans I will be watching for in the coming year.

In my heart I remain cautiously optimistic in spite of the dire tone of this post. 2009 is here and it promises not to be pretty. We will have to change many things and in many ways as a result of unregulated and condoned greed and abuses. We should not try to come out of this recession by merely aspiring to replicate the kind of society, economy and eco-consciousness we were going in. We will all be better for the lessons learned leading up to the recession and new learnings and experiences we will have coming out of it.

(Photo credit dgwallick1 from Flickr)

Will Harper Decline in 2009 Like Bush Did in 2008?

The world order of Pariah Minister Stephen Harper has changed dramatically in the past few months. He has moved from being disingenuous, mean spirited and misleading to mendacious and capricious not only with the truth but with the good of the country.

His political talisman has been the Bush White House. He has not emulated "W" so much as he has Rumsfeld and Cheney and deployed the Rovarian Cancer of a constant political campaign at a time when we needed governing and leadership. Will he suffer the same lame duck fate as President Bush has seen in his a precipitous decline in popularity and suitability for office?

Harper is a quick study but a slow learner as shown by his character flaws and stubbornness in resisting adaptation and refusal to assume responsibility or culpability for his monumental errors in judgment.

Lawrence Martin's thoughtful and insightful study of Pariah Minister Harper refreshes our memories of how poorly he has been at governing. Canadians are tired of elections and tired of leadership campaigns and are unsettled to say the least about their futures.

We have elected 3 consecutive minority governments. While a coalition government is foreign to our traditions it is not out of the question. It may be a necessity if the Harper Party persists in pursuing personal power over providing us with some economic and social stability in this serious recession.

Harper has one last chance with his January 27th budget to smarten up and to show he can and will attend to governing the country. Otherwise I say dump the Harper Party and lets see what a coalition government can do instead of another election right away.

Alberta's Tobacco Ban Legislation is Working

Last year I worked with a consortium of NGO health agencies in Alberta. We were successful in getting legislated smoking bans in public and work places, elimination of tobacco sale power walls and as of Jan 1, no tobacco sales in pharmacies.

Reports indicate this new legislation is working. Tobacco tax revenues are down in spite of a recent tax increase. This kind of prevention measure will save the health system money and improve the quality of life for everyone. Well maybe not for those poor souls who are freezing on the sidewalks at -30 and still puffing away. I wonder if the recession will help some more Albertans to get serious about quitting?

Alberta was one of the last provinces to get on the ball with this kind of legislated health prevention effort. With the change in Progressive Conservative Party leadership we have seen some interesting progressive policy efforts like this...and my other favourate public funding of midwifery. Again Alberta was a laggard. Better late than never.

Gas Prices Are Low BUT a Crunch is Coming

For all those who think climate change is someone else's problem and far enough in the future that we don't need to get serious about it now I recommend you read Dan Gardner's column in the papers today.

Keeping Our Cool: Canada in a Warming World

Along with the rest of Alberta, I am huddle at home, caught in the grasp of a serious but blessed Pine Beetle killing cold spell. I was pleased with my surfing this morning to run across an intelligent piece of commentary on climate change in the U of A student newspaper The Gateway.

There was a recent on-campus lecture by Dr Andrew Weaver, professor and Canadian chair in climate modelling and analysis in the School of Earth and Ocean Sciences at the University of Victoria, our province hardly deserves the sole blame.

Here is what hooked me into a deeper consideration of what is happening and what needs to change about how we view climate change, including Alberta:

“Most of us don’t read the peer-reviewed literature. We’re not going to go to journals and read about the latest research in a particular area. We’re going to get science knowledge—and this includes media in most areas of science—by going to the newspaper, the television, and radio,” he noted.

The problem with that, as Weaver sees it, is that the media has a tendency to be inaccurate in their depiction of the facts. His second critique was centered around the fact that most media personalities aren’t scientists.

“I’m not making fun of the media, but rather, through these extreme examples, [I want] to show how difficult it is to convey this science to an audience, and how it can be exploited by individuals who know how the media works,” he remarked.

Eventually delving into the real issue at hand—global warming—and its ability to shape the future of this world, Weaver was blunt in his assertion that at this point, there are just some realities that can’t be escaped."

Here is the link to the rest of The Gateway piece.

I guess I have another book to read over Christmas now Weaver’s recent book, Keeping Our Cool: Canada in a Warming World.

More "Truthiness" From the Harper-Cons.

I don’t trust Stephen Harper and I don’t trust Jim Flaherty. They don’t tell the truth. They have done nothing by mislead and lie and fudge the facts about the real state and pending prospects of our economy. Now they are changing their story – yet again. They are moving from a minimalist economic growth myth in the last “FU Canada” (fiscal update for the uninitiated) to and even smaller marginal projection of a deficit and recession. Which political motivated myth is the reality? What are we to believe and who can we trust to give it to us straight?

These guys are nothing more than silver-tongued fiscal devils that are always shifting their share of the blame (with apologies to Kris Kristofferson). They have squandered all benefit of the public’s doubt in their integrity and ability, and even intention, to govern. They have given us their false promises that are just pockets full of political mumbles and vainglorious lies (with apologies to Paul Simon).

Thanks to their inconsistencies we don’t know what the true state of the Canadian economy is because these guys are constantly fudging the facts for partisan political purposes. They were playing pure politics in the recent election when they trumpeted that the Canadian economic fundamentals were strong. The clear implication was that if we voted for the “superior ability of the Conservatives to manage the economy” we would weather the storm and not be caught in the US recession (cum depression?). What a load of crap that was! Thanks to these guys we are now scrambling to get a handle on what is really coming at our economy and what it means for our future.

Only when the Harper-Cons faced the threat of losing political power did they change their story. Only then did they feigned to reform and revise their reign of truthiness. Does anyone who is thoughtful and informed on the issues we face believe Harper any more about anything? Does anyone anymore think the Harper government is working for us? Does anyone anymore feel like he is being accountable and transparent with Canadians? Does anyone anymore feel they are informed about what is actually going on in this government about anything and in particular the economy? Does anyone anymore believe the Harper government is capable of admitting its mistakes and adapting its approach to new realities and new information? Does anyone anymore believe that the Harper government is making decisions based on facts instead of political expediency?

By the way, those questions are “some of the intangibles” that Barrack Obama announced yesterday that he wanted to be judged on in the first two years of his Presidency. My God we are badly governed in this country. Wake up and stay awake Canada! It is time to make our politicians pay attention to the needs of the country and its citizens – not just their own personal purposes of preserving political power.

Reflections on a Black Swann in Alberta Politics

I am reassured that a man like David Swann can win a political party leadership in a place like Alberta. Getting 54% of the less than 5000 votes is not sign that Swann is seen as the “game changer” that many politically frustrated Albertans are looking for. I am not sure a game changer is what we need anymore. The game has already changed. We now need a pioneering leader who can help us adapt to a very different and difficult human journey.

I don’t know if David is a game changer but he may be a mapmaker who charts a new course for politics in Alberta. We are sailing into unknown territory economically, ecologically and socially all over the globe. Alberta may be more blessed and less stressed than many other places but we are not immune from the new realities of recession and restructuring. The game has changed and so must our politics.

The early mapmakers described the as yet unknown parts of the world as “There be Dragons.” It is an apt metaphor for today as we venture into this new sense of the unknown. I call it “Vueja Day.” That funny feeling nobody has ever been here before.

The new world order is going to challenge our conventional narratives and business-as-usual model of politics. We have emerging and imminent challenges that we have created by enabling greed and the centralized political power that has been abdicating its oversight roles and responsibilities in the economy, the environment and even in our social institutions.

We are at a stage where we can’t solve the complex problems coming at us by applying the old cultural norms and institutional levers. That is because they are not simple not responsive enough, applicable enough nor adaptive enough. Our conventional tools of government, our traditional definition of success and our current decision making models are actually adding to the problems, not resolving them. We see more political bungling and lost opportunities as a result. We have our “leaders” posturing to avoid accountability, transparency and responsibility. We see more squandering of our scarce resources with disingenuous politicians who are good at feigning that they care as they fail to provide adaptive leadership in the face of the new dynamics.

Alberta seems to many like a political mono-cultural and a one-party state. That may have been Alberta’s past but I don’t think that is Alberta’s future. The Alberta narrative is about to change significantly. The myth of the rugged self-reliant individual, risk-taking wealth generating entrepreneur who exploits the abundant natural resources for big bucks will not go away. But it will not be the only narrative that defines Alberta going forward. If it is the only operational narrative, then Alberta will quickly fail because we will fail to adapt to the new realities of the post hydrocarbon world that is confronting us.

If there is no post hydrocarbon world coming at us, then Alberta will still fail. We will just fail along with the rest of our species as the planet heats up and we slavishly seek to keep to our illusions and delusions that tomorrow will be a variation of yesterday…regardless of evidence to the contrary. The world will go on, perhaps without us, but the planet will not care one way or the other, if we fail to adapt and survive.

So I’m hoping David Swann is the Black Swan and the improbable exception that enables us to make new models of politics, governing and government. Our democracy is ailing and we lack political leaders who have sufficient wisdom and judgment to be life affirming. Instead we see them all to selfishly focused on preserving personal and political power. David Swann strikes me as being unselfish and life affirming. After all aren’t medical doctors all about being life affirming and in service the public good?

The educated person quickly comes to realize the more we learn the more ignorant we actually are. The wisdom of that truth has to be brought to bear on our politics and become foundational to the new operating narrative for the next Alberta. I’m thinking David Swan may be the new mapmaker that is willing to explore new ways of seeing and doing politics. He may be able to help us realize our current ignorance and actually encourage and enable us to write a new citizen-based narrative for the next Alberta.

Will he be able to lead us in ways so we start to really reengage in responsible, caring, resourceful citizenship? Will Albertans be wise and skillful enough to take on the adaptive change challenges that the new world realities demand of us?

Will David Swann be allowed to become the kind of unconventional pioneering political leader that can help us find and refine the next Alberta? Or will he just become another prophet? A prophet’s lot in life is to be stoned by the masses. Time will tell but one thing is obvious to me, we need new maps to be drawn by new mapmakers as we move forward as strangers in a strange land that is the uncertain, chaotic and complex future of the planet.

Blackett Sets the Record Straight

I was really disturbed by the CBC story last week suggesting Alberta's Minister of Culture Lindsay Blackett was considering withholding provincial government funding for certain film projects. The story was spurred by the Oscar short-listed documentary “Downstream” by Leslie Iwerks. I have not seen the documentary but understand it is critical of oil sands development and focuses on the controversy over allegations of high cancer rates in the Fort Chipewyan area.

Full disclosure, I am working with the Athabasca Chipewyan First Nation in Fort Chipewyan on legal/policy issues around the timing of Alberta's duty to consult on oil sands leases. I also work with Lions Gate Television on arranging the provincial and city funding of the NBC primetime television series "Fear Itself" that was shot in Edmonton last year.

I was relieved to read the Todd Babiak’s typically thorough and thoughtful Edmonton Journal column on Saturday that clarified the situation considerably. I have spoken and met with Lindsay Blackett on several occasions and cannot imagine that censorship is anywhere in his DNA and it ought not to be in any of our elected representatives.

Blackett has effecitvly diffused the “story” by saying “Nobody is complaining about it. Not in my office, not in caucus, not in cabinet.” He goes on to state “We’re not so thin-skinned that we can’t take a little criticism. I believe in freedom of speech. We love to encourage artistic freedom and we don’t believe in censorship.” That is the Lindsay Blackett I know and that is the right place of government in free speech and artistic freedom too.

I think we need more appreciation for the controversial and criticism that artists uncover and convey in and to our society. I recently wrote an essay entitled “Profiting From the Artist as Prophet” for the City of Edmonton Culture Policy in support of that theme. I argued that “The core genius of the artist is the ability to express unreserved truth.” I believe “That artistic ability is enough to alter our entire culture by changing our orienting stories and our binding societal myths.”

Art and artists can be merely entertainment in what Ralph Waldo Emerson called the “frolic and juggle” level of the artist. Emerson goes on to say when we experience art and artists at the “genius level” they help us to “realize and add” as they make invaluable contributions to our insight and self-awareness.

As a student of politics and leadership I have observed that political leaders are often limited in their ability to see the truths that an artist can envisage. This is because politicians are inevitably placed in the compromise zone between such truths and societies receptivity to accept them.

Reading the Babiak column one sees that Lindsay Blackett gets this healthy tension about the reality about the nexus of art, culture and politics. Our governments have become the major patrons and benefactors of art and artists. Governments are under increasing pressure for accountability and transparency in the use of taxpayer dollars at the same time. This tends to measure the value of art in terms of quantitative, management and programmatic terms and diminishes and depreciates the benefits artists provide to a vital and vibrant society.

Blackett acknowledges that Alberta’s film funding,”… like democracy is a work in progress.” Alberta has historically been a national leader is making progress of this good work but that all changed in the Klein years. As Alberta seeks to become a knowledge society and economy and an attractor of culture creatives, sustained and substantial public support for arts and culture industries are a lever to make that transformation.

So contrary to implications in recent media reports, censorship is not “on” for Alberta. Government making art and culture funding decisions based on esthetic or ideological considerations is not on either. Taking a more strategic role and having a progressive public policy game play for culture industries needs to be on for Alberta. We need to breathe life and energy into the new Alberta Culture Policy in ways that makes Alberta thrive.

Lindsay Blackett has the right vision and the right stuff to make this happen but he cannot do it alone. Albertans have to get behind him and demand an enlightened public policy that enables, encourages and empowers our cultural creatives.

Playing For Change: Song Around the World

This is a video tht really touched me. It makes the point that we are all in this world alone and together. We have our own troubles and those we also share with everyone and everything else on the planet.

We have to learn to stand by each other. That may not be such a bad New Years Resolution.

Busy Days on Oil Sand Development Issues.

It has been quite the time on a wide range of oil sands issues and events over the past couple of weeks.

We have the economic elements seeing capital projects being delayed, deferred and some may even die or leave the province due to high costs, low oil prices and the evaporation of capital markets.

We have the ENGO sourced news based on a science-based report on the oil sands development adverse effects on migratory birds. Then we say a study released on seepage and leakage from toxic tailing ponds. This was all being done at a time when there is a big experts conference in Edmonton on what to do with the tailing ponds where industry floated the idea that they water may have to be treated and released into the Athabasca and Mackenzie River basins.

We also have the Alberta Land Use Framework and the Alberta Energy Strategy policy releases happening too. At the same time we have the Poznan Poland meetings on climate change that is drawing uncomplimentary international attention to oil sands development.

On the social side, yesterday I helped professionally with the communication of the Judicial Review initiative of the Athabasca Chipewyan First Nation. They are seeking a Court declaration that the Province of Alberta has to engage in meaningful consultation on the impact of oil sands projects before any leases are granted to development companies.

This is a very interesting case that challenges the current provincial policy that puts the duty to consult on industry after an oil sands lease is granted. It is not the job, nor the duty, of industry to consult with First Nations people on Treaty Rights and Traditional Use issues. It is the province’s responsibility and it is not one that can be effectively delegated to a third party.

There is nothing legally stopping Alberta from consulting in a meaningful way with First Nations on their Constitutional rights before an oil sands or any other natural resource lease is granted that impacts those rights. B.C. does it. It is just Alberta policy that creates uncertainty, additional expense and even delay in projects because of a lack of clarity and process and an ineffective policy position.

This Judicial Review application is not about money. It is about Alberta meeting its duty to consult legal obligation in advance of leasing crown lands that will have an impact Treaty Rights and Traditional uses.

With the current slowdown in the oil sands development, there is a chance to take a breath and do oil sands development right not just rapidly. Doing it right involves a comprehensive and integrated policy approach that deals effectively with the economic, environmental, societal and legal aspects of responsible oil sands development.

The advent of new provincial energy and land use policies provides a platform for a better dialogue with Albertans, including aboriginal Albertans, in the appropriate development of this crucial non-renewable resource. This ACFN legal action will likely cause the province to first say they will not discuss matters before the courts. That would be an unhelpful response towards finding a mutually beneficial resolution that would aid the province, industry and aboriginal people in finding an effective and fair resolution.

Time will tell if an enlightened policy will come forth from effective goodwill negotiations involving the province, First Nations and industry the need to consult before leases are issues. Or will there be no alternative but to have a court imposed “solution.”

Participate in What is Happening in Poznan Poland on Climate Change

Important opportunity for you to view wha tis happening in Poznan Poland thanks to OneClimate.net



The Man in Charge Takes Your QuestionsPut your questions straight to Yvo de Boer, Executive Secretary of the UNFCCCLive from the UN Climate Conference in Poznan, Poland

Wednesday (Today!), 17:30 GMT (12:30 EST) - Join the Live Discussion on OneClimate.net/Poznan


Right now almost eleven thousand participants are taking part in the UN Climate Change Conference in Poznan, Poland - and they've created countless tonnes of carbon travelling there.The good news is that YOU can have your say in this hugely important event WITHOUT contributing to the problem. OneClimate has broken new ground in allowing people all over the planet to interact with key movers and shakers inside the UN conference hall - all from the comfort of their laptops. Be a part of it and join us in Virtual Poznan.Today is your chance to put the tough questions to the man in charge. What needs to be done to solve the climate crisis and what's actually getting done behind closed doors?



The Executive Secretary of the UNFCCC, Yvo de Boer, will respond to your thoughts and questions Wednesday 10th December at 17:30 GMT (12:30 pm EST).Watch the live video stream and use the interactive comments facility to inject your thoughts at http://oneclimate.net/poznan. Or join the discussion live in Second Life. Click here: http://slurl.com/secondlife/OneClimate/19/238/22 to teleport to our Virtual Poznan arena on



OneClimate Island. Get there early -- capacity is 200 avatars.And be sure to keep up with the latest from the conference and join the discussions each day this week at 17:30 GMT (12:30 pm EST).See you in Virtual Poznan!The OneClimate



Teamwww.oneclimate.net/poznanp.s. don't worry - we've got some other great speakers lined up too, just in case Yvo gets pulled into an emergency negotiating session at the last minute!

Ignatieff Wins Liberal Leadership By Attrition.

In the post-Stephane Dion reality Dominic LeBlanc and Bob Rae bow out of the Liberal Leadership race. So the next Liberal leader is the runner up from last time. The crown passes to Michael Ignatieff with a whimper not a bang.

It looks like the transfer of the Federal leadership follows the model of the Miss Universe beauty pageant. In the political reality of beauty pageant succession it is clear that if the winner can’t perform her duties, for whatever reason, then the first runner up will take over and finish the job. Dion’s done and Iggy’s in. The politics of the Federal Liberals and Miss Universe unfold as they should.

As a newly minted Federal Liberal interloper Bob Rae’s leadership hopes depended on him being able to use a coalition approach to attract and create a different power base to win a leadership contest. That would take time and given the tentative nature of Harper’s minority, time is not on Rae’s side.

At a more fundamental level, my sense is Rae is too much yesterday’s man and LeBlanc may be tomorrow’s man but the reality of today requires as sense of urgency, and talent for adaptability and the some political nimbleness. That is where the political focus has to be for the Federal Liberal party. I see Ignatieff as a man of today. In that way he ends up being the transitional leader from the old style centralized power and top-down authority based model of politics to the new networked, internet based political culture that is coming.

A party leader being selected by attrition is not a great day for democracy in the purist’s sense. But the times are not normal, be it economically, environmentally and socially…and for sure politically. The process that results in Ignatieff as leader of the Federal Liberal party is obviously sub-optimal. It does meet the governance needs of these times in Canada…it shows the Federal Liberals to be adaptable and nimble in the face of the economic urgency facing the nation.

The coalition is not dead under Ignatieff. It is merely dormant, having done its job so far. It can be resurrected just as quickly as it was the first time. It will undoubtedly be revived if Harper chooses again to ignore the needs of the nation in favour of his self-centred power hungry political approach.

Lets Get Away From the Political Extremes and Move to the Radical Middle

I have been watching and reflecting on the policy events, media set-ups and staged political theatre of the past week in Canada. I have seen with despair the partisan theater of the media staged photo-op phoniness at the heart of the partisan demonstrations for the Conservatives or the Coalition, as if we only had to choose between them. Even their adlib lines seemed well rehearsed (hat tip to Paul Simon) in the strained spontaneity of the small recruited and artificially earnest crowds.


There are, however, some reassuring signs of a different consciousness that may be forming in the Canadian head and heart. It is not a perspective that is sees the world as left versus right, “we” versus “them”, or even “us” as better that the “other.” These inclusive, caring and nurturing impulses are going to be key and necessary character qualities for survival and progress in the globalized inter-related economic, ecological and cultural world we have now created.


The power politics of the times are still stuck in that medieval adversarial mindset. Win-win is for sissies. We are stuck in stale debates and see policies sponsored by too many of the same old-style politicians, of all partisan persuasions. We see all too clearly that they are merely offering self-serving non-solutions aimed at either avoidance or deferral of accountability.


The cautious Canadian operating principle of constant compromise into the traditional muddled and mushy middle does not work anymore. This is because the power players have become cleverer. They have changed their tactics. They have caught on that if you are extremist or reactionary enough you can generate superficial “he said, she said” media coverage. That conflict energizes the party troops and helps convince your base of the worthiness of your cause. The goal is a compromise middle ground that skews to your side. In the ground game of mean-spirited muddling politics a skewed compromise, however marginal the utility of the "win," it is still a major political victory in the partisan land of the trivial and the trifling.


I am seeing from the public reaction to events this week, a new enlightenment and a new sense of hope. Perchance even some Audacity of Hope (a book worth reading if you are a Progressive) emerging in the citizenry. This is from its collective articulation of a growing disdain for the devious ways of old-style politics and pandering partisans. Citizen’s cynicism and skepticism has become anger and activism.


Citizens have been ignoring elections but they are starting to pay attention to politics again. They are becoming individually intentional and many are engaging to actively overthrow the status quo system. That status quo system is the destructive political model of the self-serving political classes that we lobbyists too often sustain as the "experts" in the old ways and means of the darker arts of politics.


Mark Satin’s book Radical Middle, the Politics We Need Now calls for a new politics that can deal with the disappearing borders inherent from the highly mediated and connected world. He calls for everyone to embrace a radicalism in “fresh and principled way” that is “bold and yet savvy enough to want idealism without illusions.” He calls for a new kind of radicalism that addresses the “fundamental public policy issues in ways that are honest and imaginative and creative.” His middle is not about over throwing corporate capitalism of representative democracy but “…committed to finding practical, humane…answers to the very real problems of (our) institutions and corporate capitalism.”


I for one, am up for a new radicalism that is realistic and practical and focused on real solutions to the real problems of our times. I am not up for any effort that merely does what Satin calls “twiddling the dials on the status quo.” I sense some kindred spirits out there. I hope we find each other and that we get together and become a force to be reckoned with and effective agents of change.

Rick's Rant - Dec. 2, 2008

This is not just a Mercer Rant - it is an expose of Emperor Harper and just how dangerous he is. I can't imagine what Harper would do with the absolute power of a majority.

Stay awake Canada.

Maddow: Oh Canada...

Boy does American Commentator Rachel Maddow ever get it.

I can't believe our own tradition touting Conservatives can't see the damage that was done to Canadian democracy yesterday by the selfish and self-serving Stephen Harper.

Power away form the people and pull the plug on Parliament just for doing exactly what it is supposed to do...serve the interests of Canada - not those of the Prime Minister.

Hat tip to Davberta for the link.

Harper Gets a Reprieve. Now What?

So now what? Have we merely staved off the inevitable non-confidence vote? Will Harper learn to love Canada as much as himself? Will Dion be gone at an accelerated pace? Will we find some adults to supervise Question Period? Will Canadians keep caring about their country enough to continue to engage at a meaningful level and not just be reactionary? Here are some observations and prognostications:

Dion: He has to go sooner than May 2009. His work here is done. The country is too volatile and split for the Liberals to wait for the next Godot to show up. Dion has considerable talents but political leadership and retail politics are not his strong suits. He has brought Harper to heel but he lacks the skill set and the mind set to make him sit shake-paw and beg. Those are the critical training objectives for Harper to master if he wants to extend this reign.

Harper: He is a man of many faces. It is as if being two-faced is not enough for him. He is not well intended in the service of the country and pathologically insincere in word and deed. As a result of such serious character flaws he suffers from a syndrome of serious integrity lapses. But he can be trained. Like all good puppies, he will learn because he responds to rewards and fears punishment. Harper is not yet House broken but he has finagled his way out of the House and into the dog house. He has pissed off most of the country with his snarling and aggressive behaviours. He is on a choker leash now and if he does not behave, he will be muzzled. If he continues to behave like a brighter but smart-ass George Bush he will be “put down” - politically at least.

Liberal Leadership: Let’s get the Liberal leadership over by the end of February – at the latest! The candidates are decided and known. This sequel promises to be less engaging that the first season and with fewer survivors left in “the Great Race.” The political climate is so fragile and the country is so uncertain that one lingering political uncertainty is unwise and unnecessary. Dion is done and the Liberals will be too if the dither.

The Coalition: This edition of a united opposition is likely over. It has done its job. It has humbled and humiliated Harper and for that we owe the leaders a debt of gratitude. If there is a new Liberal leader decided on a fast-track the second edition of an on-going opposition coalition ought to be part of the plan going forward. We need to look carefully at the concept of coalitions given we are on our third minority government in a row – and who know how many more will be coming.

Old Canada Redux: Canadians are still split on partisan lines and Harper has revived the regional animosities again. I would like to see a coalition government for a short term, like a year or so. It would serve as a potential test run of what governing would be like as a result of Proportional Representation. It would not be as a result of PR but it would be a consequence of PR.

The Next Canada: We are about to be tested as a nation and as a society. Our old orienting mythologies of being an inclusive, fair, caring and careful and cautious society are going to be put challenged due to this economic crisis. Our character as a nation will be highlighted as we work our way through the coming calamities. How we deal with big issues urbanization, climate change, immigration, aboriginal relationships and our place in the world and our roles and responsibilities as citizens are going to be highlighted.

The Next Election: Are we going to come through this as a new progressive society, stay as a consumptive at all cost “growth” society, or will be retreat to a traditionalist model? The next election will set that course. If Harper wins a majority we will retreat into a conservative ideological mode of thought noted for a moral discipline with an expectation of obedience to authority. Harper will be portrayed as the strategic manager and experienced economist will be the strict father figure to get us through the economic mess but based on fears and insecurities. More George Bush?

If there is some other election outcome we may see a different more progressive Canada emerge that is a more caring and nurturant society. We may see a new political culture that has government and leadership that is attuned to empathy, responsibility and hope where we protect, empower and care for each other in a more vibrant sense of community and common cause that includes the individual but is larger than the individual. More Barrack Obama?

One thing that seems certain, given the causes and courses of the economic meltdown, the status quo is not on. We are not longer able to afford and presuming we can continue to abuse the planet for personal gain at the expense of the “others.” We are embedded in a globally interdependent and vulnerable world that is facing an ecological peril that is more dire than the ensuing recession/depression.

As George Lakeoff says in The Political Mind “A new understanding is emerging about what is means to be human. Our political institutions and practices reflect our collective self-understanding. When that changes dramatically, so should our politics.”

He closes the book with the chilling observation “But we better hurry up. The ice caps are melting.” Amen!

Harper's Blind Ambition Jeopardizes the Unity of the Country

Harper escapes accountability to Parliament and lives to fight one more day. Thanks to Harper’s reckless rhetoric and personal ambition, Canada is more unstable and its citizens are more uncertain and at a greater risk than at any time since World War II.


If the Governor General did not place limits on this autocratic politician we will see even more abuse of his office. He can’t abuse Parliament anymore than he has today because he shut it down.

Harper has consciously divided us one again on regional and linguistic lines again. He is an opportunistic political chameleon with little commitment to any personal principles that will serve the nation. He will say anything that is convenient to shift his share of the blame or to divert attention from the serious issues Canadians are facing. He always defaults towards the petty partisan posturing to pander to his radical right-wing base.


It is not time for a pause. It is time for decisive action based on collaboration and good governing. All of us are wise and smarter than any of us…but Harper has no sense of that reality. He is convinced what is good for Harper is good for the country. His blind ambition for gaining and keeping power is something he sees as his personal entitlement as Prime Minister.


Now without the accountability of Parliament, which he connived to close rather than respect, Harper has garnered all the power he has ever lusted after. Will he use the power wisely? Or will he spend his party war chest and start the propaganda was for the next election campaign with the bullying, misleading and outright lies of the last 3 years? I’m pretty sure it will be the latter.


This is not a time out for a government to regroup. It running away from Parliament is a cop-out by a coward. Canada just lost its last vestige of political innocence today. This political diversion and abject decline to govern is the most egregious example of just how far Harper will go to avoid accountability to perform his duty to the country.


The ugly side of Harper has prevailed. He is jeopardizing the unity, stability, diminishing the respect for the rule of law and undermining the confidence of the country in our political institutions. Did any one vote for that on October 14? Say a prayer for Canada this Christmas.

Harper's Hidden Agenda Will Happen If House Prorogues Just for Him to Keep Power.

If the Governor General grants a prorogue tomorrow that suspends Parliament, that puts the total power of government in Harper alone, given the anemic performance of his mute minions in Cabinet.

The GG better put some serous limits on Harper or he will find more excuses not to return in late January with a budget. He will inevitably face the loss of power in a defeat from a confidence vote. He is terminally tactical. He is not buying time. He is just getting more rope to hang himself.

Watch the prorogue period turn ugly as the Harper Party propaganda machine goes into overdrive. It will for sure spoil an already uncertain Christmas for many Canadians as he bombards the airwaves with expensive and tacky attack ads. Remember the multimillion dollar hatchet job he did on Dion for 2 years? Expect the mother-of-all attack ads this time around because now Harper has painted himself in a corner.

He will be spending big bucks – taxpayer subsidized bucks at that. There will be expensive television, radio and newspaper ads. He will be messaging with mistruths and lies in a big-time bullshit mode. Facts are interferences to fear mongering. It will be a Republican inspired campaign replete with lies as a big as Bush's lies about WMD in Iraqi done to "justify" a war on terror when the real terrorists are in Afghanistan.

Remember Harper lied about the absence of “flags” behind the Coalition signing ceremony? The television coverage proves he lied. He lies to induce fear by claiming the Bloc has veto over the coalition when they are not even a part of it. They have agreed only not to introduce any constitutional issues and confidence issues for the coalition for 18 months. There are more Harper lies as he promotes division in the country and fans the flames of regional differences, including encouraging Alberta Separatists. He is showing that he does not care about Canada or Canadians. This is all about Harper keeping in power despite the law or the Constitution or democracy.

If Harper was not running political ads but business ads, he would be brought up on charges by all the advertising standards watchdogs for the misleading falsehoods in his ads based on the last raft and rancor he released. Pity we tolerate that politicians can lie and mislead with impunity in the name of “informing citizens in a free and democratic society. “

In the real world we have business trying to honestly compete in the marketplace but they have to tell the truth and be careful NOT to mislead. Politicians like Harper are expected toile and mislead in their advertising – all in the name of democracy. The irony is pathetic and dangerous…just like Harper.

I think the propaganda blitz from the Harper Party that is only being done to save his job will offend Canadian values and confirm his character flaws. It will prove to us that he is unfit to lead, never mind govern. His bombast and carpet bombing media blitz will prove to be as effective as Nixon's Watergate protestations, or of McCain's panic attempts at sustain baseness by calling Obama names like socialist for espousing the benefits of income redistribution.

This is all going to energize the previously passive, indifferent and cynical voter into action and to the dramatic decline of popular or sleepwalking support for Harper as a politician, never mind as a party leader or Prime Minister. We are already seeing that – not on the windbags of talk radio, but on the web and in the blogs and the more intelligent comments being made to mainstream media websites.

It may take a bit of time for Harper to leave or to be hoisted on his own petard once and for all. But one thing is obvious to fair minded Canadians. Harper is way past his best before date. It is time for him to go.

Alberta Venture Column on Business Ethics

Alberta Venture has published this month's column on business ethics. I share this work with Fil Fraser, Janet Keeping and another monthly guest. Here is the link to Marketing Masquerades as Charity.

Unloaded copper CwoB 2008

Here is a video of my friend Graham Fletcher, the "Father of the Alberta Internet." He is the fellow who is spearheading the push at the CRTC to get access to telephone copper wire so virtualy all rural Albertans can get access to the SuperNet at optical fibre quality at cheaper costs that radio.

Harper Has a Minority - Not a God Given Right to Govern

Canadians decided last that they didn’t trust any of the political parties nor their leaders to govern the country. Choosing the third minority government in a row sent a strong message that they wanted the political parties to cooperate and govern differently.

Coalitions are the natural consequences of minority governments and that is exactly what is happening. Canadians in their collective wisdom wanted the best ideas to be considered from all parties. Harper's hubris is inimical to those ends.

Mr. Harper was aware of this attitude shift in the hearts and minds of Canadians. He campaigned in warming sweaters in sepia toned television commercials. He promised to govern in a more collaborative way compared to the pit bull and bullying approach he used in the last Parliament.


Harper got a larger majority based on the pending recession/depression and the obviously mistaken belief that Conservatives were better at prudent management of the economy. The much anticipated Fiscal Update was Harper, the economist and shrewd strategist, first chance to show he was focused on the needs of the country more than petty and pugnacious political posturing.

He prefers to pick on people rather than govern with wisdom and caring. The people he picked on this time were public servants who had just signed a 3 year contract below inflation rates. But Harper decided they should be denied the right to strike and that was a centerpiece of his pathetic Fiscal Update. There would be no threat of a public service strike for at least three year so it was pure political bullying of vulnerable people.


Next Harper moved to take away legal rights of women to seek pay equity which is so contrary to Canadian core values and our shared sense of fairness. He offered retired seniors a crumb saying they could defer 25% of the requirement they sell retirement stocks now that had dropped 60% of value in a month. Nickel and diming seniors will not deal with the fear from the devastation to the retirement savings of seniors.

Harper has failed to win a majority when he held all the trump cards and played them. He has failed to realize the anxiety of Canadians who face a financial crisis of Biblical proportions. He has been tone deaf or indifferent to the expectations and values of Canadians to make the minority government work.


He has shown he has no respect for the law or democracy. He is terminally tactical and strategically incapable of collaboration, even within his own Cabinet and Caucus. He has no respect for Parliament as will be proven as he tries to prorogue the House to try and avoid the inevitable non-confidence vote.

Harper is clever and conniving but he has shown that he is neither wise nor willing to learn and adapt. In a modern democracy especially with a minority government, those are fatal character flaws that make Mr. Harper unfit for the highest office in the land.

Mr. Harper, it is over. The fat lady is singing and she is well into her second verse. It is not too late to show some dignity and integrity for a change for the good of the country, Canadians and even your own party and your place in history.

Harper the Bully Overplays His Political Hand

The pettiness of the Harper political machine has finally pushed the opposition parties to push back – and really, really hard. Harper’s ill-conceived, idiotic and ideologically focused “Fiscal Update” (Harper’s FU Canada Statement) was lacking in service of the common good and was oblivious to the rapidly deteriorating fiscal reality of the country.

Harper is now running away from his FU Canada Statement so fast and farcically that he could be accused of rehearsing for a Monty Python sketch. He has already ditched all but one of his FU Canada Statement pronouncements, namely his suspension of the rights for women to use Human Rights processes to achieve pay equity. That is likely to be withdrawn soon.

He has withdrawn his draconian idea of legislating away the right to strike for public servants. He has retreated on his goal of bankrupting the opposition political parties through withdrawing the vote subsidy provisions. Now he says he will push up the budget speech up to the end of January from late March. That hardly shows a renewed sense of urgency.

Harper’s retreat has not been motivated by any commitment to principles of good governance. He is merely trying and stop momentum behind the Liberal-NDP coalition planning. His retreat and political messaging is having the exact opposite effect and only seems to invigorate the coalition parties.

Harper has been allowed to bully, belittle and browbeat opposition politicians, especially Stephane Dion, for over two years. Harper got away with it because the Liberals were not ready to fight another election after changing leaders and polls showed Canadians did not want another election.

Canadians wanted Harper to use his 2006 minority victory as a chance to show that he could govern and use his first minority parliament for the common good. Instead Harper used his offices to serve his own lust for personal political power. What we got was trite tax cuts like the GST and debased childcare subsidies. He mastered the dark arts of misleading messaging and political trickery.

Harper has proven that he has no respect for Parliament and he has even less respect for the rule of law. Harper’s own law for fixed election dates passed unanimously in Parliament. It was immediately ignored by Harper’s quick election call. He “justified” the early election by ironically claiming that Parliament was dysfunctional – even at a time when it wasn’t even sitting. Well Parliament is sitting now and it is very dysfunctional now, all thanks to Stephen Harper.

It is obvious that the opposition parties have had enough of Stephen Harper. The country is entering into the worst economic crisis in our history. Harper is not only dithering about his duty to govern, he continues to be politically diabolical and ideological - as his recent FU Canada statement proves, yet again.

So there is going to be a coalition formed between the Liberals and the NDP with some passive but sufficient support from the Bloc. They intend to form a government by defeating Harper on a non-confidence motion and offering the Governor General a viable alternative, without the need for an election.

Harper has tactically delayed the timing of the Liberal’s non-confidence motion from December 1st to the 8th. That has not bought Harper any useful time to try and retain power. It has just given the coalition parties more time to design the coalition partnership, plan for the next Parliament and to develop new policies that are for the good of the country.

Harper has outlived his usefulness to the country and he has overplayed his political hand. He is all tactics and strategy. He has shown that he has no substance and no intention of acting decisively or with alacrity to manage the growing and accelerating economic crisis facing the country.

I hope and expect we will have a new coalition government to replace the hapless and feckless Harper Party by midmonth. It will be neither left nor right but will be progressive and forward looking. It will be focused on how to best respond to the current economic crisis, to deal with climate change and do what needs to be done to support the growing number of vulnerable citizens who are going to bear the brunt of this recession.

As for soon-to-be “former Prime Minister Harper,” I hope to be able to say very soon, and with great zeal, “So long Steve. Your 35 months of fame are over.”

Harper Folds on FU for Party Funding

So Harper's game of political chicken is over and he lost. The Canadian Press is reporting that Harper has backed down on cutting the subsidy to political parties a confidence issue in his so-called Fiscal Update ("FU" for short").


I think a coalition government with Ralph Goodale as the interim Prime Minister is a possibility - not optimal but a possibility. And Harper can't risk it. His bullying and bluster better be over. Harper is only good at political tactics when the country is desperate for good government and sound policy. Harper's FU yesterday shows that he is still only intertested in political gamesmanship.


The times have change and the Harper political and head games are no longer appropriate. It is time to lead or get out of the way Steve.

Stephen Hawking Comes to Canada - Why Not Alberta?

This appointment of Stephen Hawking to Waterloo University Perimeter Institute is a perfect example of what Alberta ought to be doing. We have the resources and facilities to actively attract and engage the best and brightest minds in the world today to come to our universities and research institutes.

We are doing this in medicine and nanotech and some other areas but not nearly enough and definitely not aggressively enough. With the economic down turn there will be a lot of great scientists and researchers who will no longer have access to the kind of funding they need to do their work. They will be looking for new sources and new relationships. Those folks ought to be found and recruited to our province to pursue their work in this tough time.

Alberta’s hydrocarbon economy, no debt, capital investment that is in place and still being pursued, safe communities, and stable government provides us with the best prospects going forward in all of North America – at least for the foreseeable future – but not forever. We can’t presume that our growth and sustainability will be assured by continuing to try to perfect yesterday's hydrocarbon economy.

Carbon is not king anymore. There will be significant efforts to replace it and to neutralize its impacts on the planet. Albertans support those efforts because we are the highest CO2 emitters on the planet on a per capita basis and know something has to change. Alberta has a serious transition and transformation in its future that will be more dramatic and demanding than the advent of the oil sands. Are we ready for that? Are we designing our economy, ecology and society for that destiny? Are we adaptive, engaged and nimble enough to make the changes we need and to show the leadership necessary to make a difference? I think so but it is not a given…it takes an attitude adjustment. That it never easy but it will be necessary.

We now have a slowdown in Alberta, not a recession, and that is good in so many ways. The Alberta slowdown is due to the market responding to untenable high costs, lower oil price, uncertainty and turmoil in financial markets and increasing environmental regulatory requirements.

We needed a slowdown happen so we could catch our breath and to bring some cost control and sanity back into our economy and our society. We have to take advantage of this breather to reflect and rethink about what we are doing, where we are going and how we are going to get there as a province.

We still have a secure energy based economy that will serve us well for a good while longer….but not forever. So I urge the Alberta government to not only actively pursue people to come to our province to help meet the skills shortages in so many sectors of the economy. I also urge them to add a focused effort to seek out and recruit the best innovation and science minds in green industries and ecological technologies. We have the right mix of elements to entice them to come and set up shop in our universities and research institutions. We need them to also engage with our private sector corporations who are increasingly focused on profiting from sound corporate social responsibility practices.

There are going to be effective alternatives for fossil fuels in the future. Alberta better be actively creating that new future and not be passively indifferent to change. Otherwise we will be overwhelmed by it when it happens. We ought to be bring the most promising of these people from all over the globe to Alberta.

We need to prepare and position ourselves to be at the leading edge with thought leaders and leading researchers who a re crating that new world orders. We can supporting and sustain their work with our wealth and potential. That is the smartest way for us to go forward to get through these difficult economic times. We have something significant to offer them…funds and facilities through our publicly funded endowment programs.

What do you say Mr. Premier?

CRTC-SuperNet-Telus and the Plight of Rural Alberta Connectivity

I am working on a project to get rural Albertans access to the SuperNet using the copper telephone wire that comes into our homes. It requires the cooperation of the owner of that wire who is Telus in Alberta. Telus has balked at consenting voluntarily. So there is an application being undertaken by the Internet Centre to the CRTC with a decision pending for private Internet Service Providers to secure this access to the Telus “unloaded copper wire.” Here is the link to the application documents if you are an insomniac.

I ran across an interesting interview with Simon Aspinal, the Managing Director, Internet Business Solutions Group for Cisco. He explains very clearly the reluctance of the Telcos to help and facilitate this change in communications culture of the new and emerging dominance of the internet espeically relating to video applications. Aspinal outlines the reasons why it makes good business sense for Telcos to adapt to the new internet video reality instead of still trying to fight off its inevitable and upsetting all their customers along the way.

The interview is a bit esoteric but it is very relevant given the powerful fibreoptics tool Albertans have built and paid for called the SuperNet. It brings great leverage and competitive capacity that cam make for an enticing business case for enterprises to set up in rural communities. The keys to thie innovation are high definition easy access simple to use cost competitive videoconferencing and very high speed internet. All this become a reality with the access to the SuperNet through unloaded copper telephone wire that is everywhere in Alberta.

It is not only Telus that is reluctant and resistant to adjust to the new reality of the internet Web 2.0 world. We see Bell and Rogers also using inappropriate business practices to try and control bandwidth for everyone just because a few bad apples are inappropriately using services. Net neutrality is the underlying issue here and the CRTC has said there will be a public hearing on the issues in July 2009. I expect to participate in those hearings to ensure private enterprise is not granted the power to interfere with my Charter Rights “freedom of thought, belief, opinion and expression, including freedom of the press and other media of communications; freedom of peaceful assembly: and freedom of association.” These rights have to trump the business purposes of Telcos that are trying to create a monopoly and unwarranted control over internet access.