Oil Sands Survey Comments Reveals Concerns.

As of last Friday we had 556 comments on the Oil Sands Survey. They cover a wide range of opinions, just as you would expect around a serious economic, environmental and societal concerns like the development of the Alberta oil sands.

I thought I would give you a sense of what people are saying through a smattering of the comments. The survey went live October 22 so the comments changed a bit over time. We can’t tie the comments to participants. They are anonymous and not traceable by us or anyone else. Here is some of what Albertans had to say when they took the survey.

“I have never lived in a more money hungry province. All "oil sand" workers are in it for the money and to get ahead. Eventually, you will not be able to compete with our dying world and be FORCED to stop drilling. If people conserve more, drive less and stop drilling, maybe our children's children will be able to enjoy our dying world!”

“I wish 'ED' would back off on the royalties’ issue. He's only causing bigger problems. Thanks for your time.”

“I wish we could find a way that the development would not hurt the environment and that there would be more funding and help available for disabled people and seniors in Alberta.”

“I'm tired of the businesses and government ALWAYS getting the royalties and then hiking prices of gas, electricity, natural gas, food, clothing, housing...all the necessities. They know we can't live without the necessities so they keep increasing them and tell us to deal with it. Meanwhile they are lining their pockets and keep getting raises!! Where's ours???????”

“Royalties need to be increased; more environmental thoughts need to be brought into play and good old fashioned common sense.”

Some people loved the survey technique and others distrusted it:

“This was an extremely unfair survey. Totally biased towards oil and gas. I didn't want to choose either one or the other, but had to. To me, this will be a totally unfairly represented survey. The results are not conclusive. Ridiculous.

“As in real life, you have given us several ugly choices in the options you offered. What will it take to make environment, long-term planet benefits, and community capacity the primary factors in business, rather than exploitative, market-driven decisions?”

“That was a good survey. It made one think.”

“A very interesting and thought provoking survey.”

The Survey is a challenge because the technique requires hard choices and trade offs to be made. Never an easy task! It is being done independently by Cambridge Strategies Inc. and will be used to try and inform government policy and industry practices around responsible and sustainable oil sands development. It is available on www.policychannel.com until December 7. Take a bit of time and do the survey yourself.

Oberg Discloses Alberta's Surplus - But Still Not His PC Leadership Campaign Donors - What (and who) Gives?

It is a good thing Dr. Oberg is providing an open and transparent declaration of the Alberta Surplus situation in his quarterly update. So we are into the $4B level of projected surplus now and yes there are some reasons for concern looking out and we need to be better at planning for a slower growth in our Alberta.

That said, I wonder when Dr. Oberg is going to release his PC Leadership campaign donor list? He promised he would and did I miss it? On December 2 it will be one year since the PC leadership was decided and still no disclosure from Dr. O.

He has the discipline to get quarterly updates done on surpluses, surely he can give us a simply list of his campaign donors and the amounts contributed before a year is out.

How can Dr. Oberg justify this failure, refusal or neglect to release his leadership campaign donor list when he promised that he would? Not good enough Dr. O. Not nearly a good enough. Dr. Oberg should be setting an example of open, accountable and transparent government given his Cabinet position!

Stelmach Should Reject Craig Chandler's Nomination

I am not happy with the Progressive Conservative Party nomination of Craig Chandler in Calgary Egmont. If you are Ed Stelmach, you only need to go to the Craig Chandler website and watch the video to see what kind of "candidate" you are dealing with.

Really listen to him and you have to be concerned about his intentions and attitudes and look at the record of what he says and what he has done.

I am glad the Premier is meeting with Mr. Chandler to discuss his intentions and to assess his ability to be a team player. The results of that meeting should be a foregone conclusion based on the Chandler website video. The Premier should refuse to sign this person’s nomination papers as an Alberta Progressive Conservative candidate.

In the website video Mr. Chandler says, “Do you think in a Caucus meeting I’m going to roll over?” He and columnist Paul Jackson of the Calgary Sun say Mr. Chandler will not “toe the party line.” Mr. Chandler himself makes the point that he believes he must represent “his constituents” and he…”won’t toe the party line and any of you think I will don’t know me very well.”

I admire an independent streak and have one myself, and that does not preclude one from being a team player. You don’t have to "toe the party line" in Caucus during what is often a rigorous debate. But you have to accept the ultimate and final decision of Caucus. That is when the MLAs in any government must "toe the party line" or else nothing will get done or even be finally decided.

If you disagree with a Caucus decision Mr. Chandler you have a few options. Suck it up and shut up. Quit or cross the floor. Speaking out against the party line or the party principles will likely see you quickly kicked out of Caucus. Don’t fool yourself, sir it happens. Just ask Dr. Oberg

The problem I have with Mr. Chandler is not that he is independent. He is also oppressive and dogmatic. He strikes me as a person who chooses not to see nuances on issues. Kind of like George Bush. If you are not for us, you are deemed to be against us. Can Mr. Chandler accept and reconcile differences of opinion in ways that seek effective solutions to complex governance problems?

He comes across as the kind of person who is often wrong but never in doubt. He has expectations that everyone else should adapt to his version of “reality and truth” because he sure isn’t going to “toe any party line.”

He doesn’t come across as being able to accept that he has blind spots. We all have blind spots and that is why we get better judgments and wiser decisions when our politicians listen and learn from a wide rage of perspectives. Does he have the right stuff to be effective in a representative democracy that is based on principles of being inclusive and valuing diversity? Those are core qualities of modern democratic political representation.

He makes a strong point of saying he represents his constituents before he owes any party or Caucus allegiances. That may be true but it is going to be interesting to see if he can be representative of all of his constituents, especially if they disagree with him. Given he has such a dogmatic attitude, ask yourself how well he will represent the concerns of his Gay constituent? I think it is a pretty sure bet Calgary Egmont has gay residents and they would be Mr. Chandler's "constituents" should he be a PC candidate and win in the next election.

Premier Stelmach, take a minute and read the Statement of Principles of the Progressive Conservative Association of Alberta. Then make a personal leadership statement based on those principles and refuse to sign this gentleman’s nomination papers.

Mr. Harper has taken this leadership step on more than one occasion recently. You will get some heat but refusing this candidate is the proper thing to do under the circumstances.

Latest IPCC Climate Change Report is the Most Sobering Yet.

The IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) today is releasing its most sobering analysis yet. Past civilizations have been successful but have made fundamental and monumental errors and disappeared. Read Ronald Wright’s “A Short History of Progress” for some examples and context on this phenomenon.

Today, with what we are doing to the planet, our nations and our species have the capacity to actually see the coming disaster we are creating for life on this planet through global warming. We have two perceptual advantages over the past doomed ancient civilizations. We know about those past failures so we can learn from their mistakes and not repeat a modern variation of the same.

We also have the capacity to foresee the pending consequences of our actions and we can adapt and change our ways. Easier said than done but it is clearer everyday that we cannot continue to define progress and development as we have.

The planet will survive. There is no guarantee that our species will continue to be part of its future, especially if we do not fundamentally change our wasteful and damaging ways.

Alberta's oil sands and energy industry will be at the centre of world attention as this focus on an attitude change by mankind gains momentum as a way to respond to climate change. ENGOs are already gearing up to make oil sands the "Baby Seals" issue of the next decade.

Albertan's want changes mand in how we can be more responsible and sustainable in the development of our energy sector and the oil sands in particular. There is an on-line survey being done by Cambridge Strategies Inc. and The Policy Channel to find out what Albertans want and value most about responsible and sustainable oil sands development.

Here is the link to Policy Channel to do the survey. It takes about 8 minutes to do and forces you to thnk and make hard choices and trade offs...just like real life. So stick with it and finish the survey...and leave us an email address if you want a report on the findings.

Premier Stelmach Shows What Good Socially Progressive and Fiscally Conservative Government is All About This Week.

This has been a good week for Albertans and yours truly.

Tobacco Reduction Act Passes:
Our government has moved decisively on third reading of Bill 45 to prohibit smoking in public and work places. This will improve the quality of life, save lives and tax money form tobacco related disease over time. I have been working professionally with the coalition organized to get this legislation passed. Congratulations to Dave Hancock, Alberta’s Minister of Health and Wellness for this great political and policy accomplishment.

Public Good Exemption in Lobbyists Act for Voluntary Sector:
Next we see our government has moved to exempt public-good non-profit/voluntary organizations from the requirements of the new Lobbyists Act. That means volunteers and staff people in these various community based and charitable organizations do not have to worry about what they say to whom about what in the government when it comes to their good works.

This was the position expressed by the Muttart Foundation and Volunteer Alberta’s brief to the government on the Lobbyists Act. I wrote the Volunteer Alberta brief pointing out the proposed legislation would cause a chill in the volunteer community because it was so harsh and inappropriately drafted. This new Public-Good Exemption amendment to Bill 1, the Lobbyists was also proposed by Dave Hancock and will undoubtedly pass in this session. Congratulations once again.

Teachers Unfunded Pension Liability Issue Finally Resolved:

Now today Premier Stelmach resolves the final debt obligation of the province, the unfunded pension liability for Alberta teachers. This has been a perennial problem that has been bungled by the Klein government and Dr. Lyle Oberg in his former capacity as Minister of Learning. This matter has been one of the most unfair and long time outstanding labour issues that Klein and Oberg used as a punishment for a past teachers strike.

Full disclosure, over the past three years, I have worked from time to time on this matter on behalf of the Alberta Teachers Association. I know Dave Hancock has been working on this issue for years behind the scenes too. But the credit for this progressive step in good government and the saving of some $48B in accrued taxpayer costs over time goes to Premier Stelmach and the leadership of the ATA.

It has been a pretty good week for socially progressive and fiscally conservative government everything considered.

Federal Leaders All Found Wanting and Out of Touch With Concerns of Canadians

What is going to happen to Harper’s Quebec strategy now that he can’t talk to Mulroney – the mastermind behind it all?

Has this Calgary Conservative captured the hearts and minds of the Quebec people to the extent that without Mulroney pulling his strings he will still have support in Quebec? Will they still believe Harper when he says he understands the Quebec Nation in the same way they do? Will they still believe that Harper really means it and get it without the Mulroney influence to reassure the soft nationalist support in Quebec?

Once thing for sure there is not going to be a federal election coming anytime soon under these circumstances. With the emerging reality of another public inquiry involving another Quebec based prime minister Dion will gladly wait out the time for this issue to mature before he will want an election. Quebec is a battle ground in the next election. Is the Harper support in Quebec a mile wide and deep as a dime? Without the reassurance of a continuing Mulroney influence on Harper - will the Quebec support last?

Besides the polls show Canadians are less than enamoured in any meaningful way with any of the federal parties and their leaders right now. My reading is the public sees Dion as very beige, Harper is very grey and Layton is too red. None of them are known commodities and some are seen as less trustworthy than others. Be it the Adscam overhang on the Dion Liberals, the Bush-league conniving tendencies of Harper or the ill-defined opportunistic political and policy ploys of Layton. What Canadians want is someone who is truly and comprehensively green in economic and ecological terms.

The successful new political leaders will be someone with an integrated green agenda that has to be able to embrace and articulate issues of environmental protection and sustainability as well as responsible economic growth and be able to clarify the societal impacts all at the same time with authority and authenticity. Not that tough to do right?

No media-trained, pre-packaged, shrink-wrapped, messaging mouthpiece with a patina of manufactured charisma will cut it anymore. And now we see we have to revisit the recurring issue of honesty, integrity, accountability and transparency in our political culture too.

How much of this crap can the long suffering citizens of Canada take - and how long will they tolerate it?

Mr. Mulroney Best Advised to Stifle the Rhetoric and Bluster in the Schreiber Affair.

Lots of thoughts and themes emerging out of the Mulroney/Schreiber affair that is worth noting and tracking as this story evolves. One key concern is the recent conduct of Mr. Mulroney.

Mr. Mulroney was in a full-court press while speaking at a fundraising dinner in Toronto recently. The always quotable Mr. Mulroney said “I, Martin Brian Mulroney, 18th prime minister of Canada will be there before the royal commission with bells on because I’ve done nothing wrong and I have absolutely nothing to hide.”

The tendency to want stake out a position early and often for some one in Mr. Mulroney’s shoes is understandable but the credibility of the parties is a key issue here. His media-messaging and very crafted quote sure sounds like what we would expect as the opening lines of his testimony just before he goes oath, doesn’t it. Strikes me also as being right up there with the now famously inaccurate “I did not have sexual relations with that woman.”

Also, who said this was going to be a “royal commission?” It might be a judicial inquiry. It might be bumped off the rails by criminal proceedings that will be pre-empting the inquiry. It has to be considered in the light of the extradition proceedings happening in the Ontario Court of Appeal. There is a matter of a possible perception of bias by the current Conservative Justice Minister who has extensive discretionary powers around the extradition of Mr. Schreiber. He also served under the past Mulroney government and he is no doubt weighing his roles and responsibilities in the extradition process and these pending proceedings as well.

Who knows what is going to be the end result at this point in time? So, Mr. Mulroney lets stifle the histrionics and posturing and pre-framing of the issues in the media while Professor Johnson is peeling back the layers of this onion. Lets not presume or pre-position anything and lets not try this matter in the media first either. You are likely to get your inquiry so please respect the process that has been undertaken by the current Prime Minister and let the process do its job.

Bill 45 - Smoking Ban Law Passes Third Reading in Alberta

Bill 45 the Tobacco Reduction Act received 3rd and final reading today in the Alberta Legislature this afternoon. This has been a long time coming. Many passed Alberta Health Ministers have tried and failed. With a new Premier in Stelmach and as renewed effort by a new Minister of Health and WELLNESS in Hancock…it has happened.

The real hero’s here are the coalition of health advocacy groups, professional and health care groups that have banded together, stayed together and even grown in numbers and strength. Their consistent and persistent lobby efforts and sustained energy and collective intelligence is the stuff that really made this happen.

Of course it is not groups or organizations or even political parties of governments that makes this stuff work and gets positive results. It is individuals with talent, time and ability that work together for common cause that makes this kind of policy change really happen. I have been working with these individuals and the coalition they have formed this past year on getting Bill 45 introduced and passed.

Congratulations to the folks behind Action on Smoking and Health Alberta for a job well done. Congratulations to Minister of Health and Wellness Dave Hancock and the people in the department who have assisted the effort.

This smoking ban law in public and working places is one of the easiest and best ways to improve the quality of life for Albertans. It is also one of the best wellness initiatives the government could have undertaken to prevent disease and to improve the wellness of Albertans as well.

Harper Moves Fast and Well on Independent Advisor Appointment

Mr. Harper has moved quickly and well to appoint the independent advisor on the Mulroney/Schreiber affair. The appointment of Professor David Johnson, President of the University of Waterloo is an excellent choice.

I also like the mandate and the flexibility and discretion afforded Professor Johnson.

a) specifies the duties of the Independent Advisor as to conduct an independent review of those allegations respecting financial dealings between Mr. Schreiber and the Right Honourable Brian Mulroney, P.C., and to submit to the Prime Minister by January 11, 2008 a report in both official languages, which shall

(i) make recommendations as to the appropriate mandate for a public inquiry into those allegations, including the specific issues that warrant examination, under the Inquiries Act,

(ii) state whether the Independent Advisor, in the course of his review, has determined that there is any prima facie evidence of criminal action; in that case, the report shall make recommendations as to how this determination should be dealt with, and what should be the appropriate mandate and timing for a formal public inquiry in those circumstances, and

(iii) make recommendations as to whether any additional course of action may be appropriate;

(b) authorizes the Independent Advisor to adopt procedures for the expedient and proper conduct of the independent review, including reviewing relevant records and documents and consulting as appropriate;

(c) fixes his remuneration as set out in the attached schedule, which per diem is within the range ($1,200 - $1,400); and(d) authorizes the payment, in accordance with Treasury Board policies, of the following expenses incurred in the course of his duties:

(i) travel and living expenses while in travel status in Canada while away from his normal place of residence in accordance with the Treasury Board Travel Directive and Special Travel Authorities,

(ii) expert staff, as required, and

(iii) any other reasonable expenses as necessary to conduct the independent review.

I applaud the swiftness, quality and the mandate behind this decision by Mr. Harper.

This review process is not a witch hunt and never was. It is the beginning of a hunt as to which version of the truth we will believe, that of Mr. Schreiber or that of Mr. Mulroney. That is the ultimate question and it is still an open question waiting for an answer

Privacy Commissioner Order Contract Disclosure - Stelmach Balks

I don’t understand the stance of the Stelmach government around the disclosure of details of the service contracts of Rod Love the former Chief of Staff for Premier Klein and Murray Smith, the province’s former envoy to Washington D.C.

The well reasoned and thorough analysis of the Office of the Information and Privacy Commissioner in Order F2006-007 answers all the questions and concerns over privacy issues insofar as Mr Smith is concerned. The Rod Love Chief of Staff contract is not dealt with in this decision and may be an entirely different matter.

The reasons Premier Stelmach’s reluctance to comply with the Order is based on a fear to comply with this Order to disclose they may have to do it for all public sector employees. So what and why not? We disclose this information on MLA, Deputy Ministers and other senior officials. In fact we can even tell who Minister’s bought lunch for, when and how much they paid because the Ministerial expense accounts are not on departmental websites.

The public is entitled to know this stuff and more. I believe there needs to be disclosure of compensation levels in all government third-party contracts too. A few years ago my firm was contracted by the Minister of Justice and the Speaker’s Office to review the risk management policies of the GOA due to the defamation actions around certain allegations by former Alberta Cabinet Minister Stockwell Day.

Getting the government to publicly release of our report was a saga unto itself but it eventually happened. However since this was a sole sourced contract with us we took the extra step of attaching our contract as a schedule to our report because we believed citizens had a right to know this information. That report document is still posted on our Website if you are interested.

This alleged policy concern of the Premier makes no sense. The presumption should be disclosure and if there is a possibility for rebuttal due to circumstances, then that can be taken to the Office of the Information and Privacy Commissioner for a decision.

Premier Stelmach is keen on transparency and that is a good thing. That is why his position on these contracts is so confusing, especially in light of the recent Order of the Privacy Commissioner. His default position cannot be opaqueness – that is not transparency and confuses the issues rather than clarify them.

Albertan's Are Responding to the Oil Sands Survey.

I am very encouraged by the response to the Oil Sands Survey we at Cambridge Strategies Inc and The Policy Channel are doing on values Albertans attribute to responsible and sustainable development of the oil sands. So far over 4400 Albertans have participated in this discrete choice modelling survey and this is not an easy survey that asks if you like Pepsi or Coke – it makes you think and requires you to make some personal value judgements.

We have also done a Stats Can aligned sample of 1300 Albertans to be sure we have a scientific base line for this project. Now we are reaching out to get as many Albertans as we can to do the survey as well. This is not a sponsored survey but we intend to use the results to influence government policy and industry practices on the future direction and goals for responsible and sustainable oil sands development.

The survey is anonymous but if you want a report on the results we ask you for an email address at the end of the survey. There is also a place for you to comment on the survey and the issues around oil sands development. Those comments will help us inform government and industry on the theme areas as well.

If who want to have a say in how you believe your oil sands ought to be developed please take the time to do the survey. It will force some hard choices and trade-offs on you - just like in real life but stick with it - you will be glad you did it!

Here is a link to Policy Channel and the Survey link is in the top left hand corner.

An Inquiry If Necessary but Not Necessarily an Inquiry.

So we are not yet quite at the stage of a public inquiry on the Mulroney/Schreiber affair. In a statement today from the PMO we see the intent of Mr. Harper to appoint “an independent and impartial third party to review what course of actions may be appropriate given Mr. Schreiber’s new sworn allegations.”

There may be prima facie findings of criminal actions so this preliminary review will identify and advise on what course of actions should be taken as well as the nature and timing of the inquiry.

I agree with Mr. Harper’s course of action here and his reasoning behind them as well. He is looking for non-political professional advice on how to proceed and on setting priorities for issues and terms of reference for any inquiry if needed.

Mr. Harper is now discovering it is not easy setting serious complex policy priorities. Mr. Dion has known this for a while. In fact the CPC attack ads on Mr. Dion have made the point very effectively about how difficult setting this matter of priorities can be.

Mulroney Himself Calls for a Public Inquiry into the Schreiber Allegations.

Mulroney calls for a public inquiry and says by pass the investigation stage. Finally a statesman steps up for the good of the country and perhaps even to enhance the public's confidence in the state of our democracy in the process.

As I said in an earlier post Mr. Harper should call an inquiry. I also supported his decision for an independent investigation as first step. I also hope Schreiber can’t prove his allegations because our respect for most of our political institutions has been severely shaken as of late. We don't need that trust to be tried and tested further right in the office of the Prime Minister.

Given Mr. Mulroney's recommendation, go directly to the pubic inquiry route Mr. Harper and lets get this cleared up. It is time to get this behind the players, the parties and the country.

The Enlightened Savage Sends Up Margaret Atwood

Every time I try to use sarcasm in my Blog postings, I get in trouble. It is because my “nuance” just gets lost in the text that simply cannot seem to translate my “tongue in cheek” prose. Or maybe my critics and commenters are all uber-rational positivist who think a metaphor is a five. Anyway I seem to suck at sarcasm in print.

One of my favourite Bloggers – The Enlightened Savage pulls it off every time. Even the name of his blog is proof positive of this man’s skill at "incite."

Well his latest post is a brilliant send up of Margaret Atwood and underscores the impotence of being earnest when it comes to shilling for political dollars.

Well done oh-enlightened one…well done.

Was Prime Minister Harper Really Out-of-the-Loop on the Mulroney/Schreiber Affair?

Can you believe that Prime Minister Harper, the master of micro-managing-message-control, was out of the loop for seven months on a letter sent to him from Karlheinz Schreiber alleging serious wrong-doing by former PM (and current Harper mentor) Brian Mulroney?

Given that the letter was accusing former Prime Minister Mulroney of serious abuses of the highest political office in the country, can you believe the Privy Council Office’s characterization of the letter’s content? What were they thinking when, according to media reports, the CPO decided the Schreiber letter to Prime Minister Harper as merely dealing with a civil suit between two private citizens and therefore Harper need not even be advised of the letter's existence, never mind the content?

Mr. Harper’s recent threats in response to the opposition parties (and many Canadians) saying they want him to investigate this matter saying we had “better be careful what we ask for” in demanding a sitting PM investigate a former PM. This attitude was pure unvarnished and unscripted Stephen Harper at his most insinuating, intimidating and threatening best. He implies with such a request to investigate the Mulroney/Schreiber affair there could also be other investigations of other former PMs. Scary stuff.

If further investigation of other PMs is warranted Mr. Harper, then that sir, is exactly what I and other Canadians would expect you to undertake. Your insinuation that this may bear some “consequences” to other politicians and other political parties is damaging to your own reputation as PM and brings into question your own fitness for service the highest political office in the land.

The last time Harper launched such an investigation it was politically motivated and over certain communications, polling and advisory contracts with former Prime Minister Martin and a consulting firm. That firm was also heavily involved in Martin's bid for leadership of the LPC and in his last two election strategies. The investigation mandate Mr. Harper set then was to look for any wrong-doing and skullduggery by the contractors and Mr. Martin. That appointee was seen by most as more of a political provocateur than an indifferent and independent investigator. He was supposed to report back on his findings in 6 months and that time has long since past without any report being released by Mr. Harper. We don’t even know if Harper has actually received such a report as yet. Not an encouraging record Mr. Harper.

Mr. Harper indicates he will appoint an independent third party to investigate the issues and allegations around the Mulroney/Schreiber affair. He says that appointment announcement may come as early as this week. Mr. Harper needs to prove, through this action, that he has the character and capacity for service in the highest political office in the land. If he aspires to a majority government with virtually unfettered control that would bring to him, and as was enjoyed by Prime Ministers Mulroney and Chrétien, he can do much toward ensuring that outcome in the next election by the appointment of a truly independent person to do this review.

Be careful who you appoint this time Mr. Harper and be very open and transparent with the mandate and terms of reference and be generous with the resources you afford this investigation. We are talking about the integrity of the highest political office in the land and not some clever political out-of-season campaign ploy like your series of “who-is-not-a-leader” negative TV ads against Mr. Dion. Please do not politicize this situation Mr. Harper.

Our faith in our democracy demands that we look to you Mr. Harper as our Prime Minister and as the leader of our government to ensure the necessary accountability is extant in dealing with these difficult circumstances.

While you ponder the appointee and the nature of the assignment please put a stay on the extradition of Mr. Schreiber for a while too. We need him in Canada to be examined under oath surrounding the various allegations in his recent affidavit on this matter. The Germans can wait a bit longer to pursue their tax evasion and fraud charges against him. Right now Canadians need to know if he can prove his allegations or not.

I'm not taking bets on if Schreiber can prove his allegations or not. I am hoping, for the sake of the confidence of the country in our political institutions, that he can't. Time will tell.

Harper Distances From Mulroney and Starts a Review Process Based on Schreiber Affidavit.

On November 2nd in this blog I called on Mr. Harper to call in inquiry into the Mulroney/Schreiber affair. I have not kept current on developments on this front as I have recently been out of town at a fascinating conference on blogging and new media…more on that at later date.

I am pleased to support the steps announced by Mr. Harper and reported in the Globe and Mail last Friday that there will be an independent third party review of the Mulroney/Schreiber affair. In my earlier post I said this incident was a character test for Mr. Harper. I believe this situation should be used as “a measure of the man” and citizens can thereby pass judgment on Harper’s personal capacity to govern as a wise statesman and not merely as a clever political tactician.

I am a serious critic of Mr. Mulroney and while it is rare, I have applauded him in the past a number of significant occasions, like the decision on income trusts. Today I am pleased to applaud Mr. Harper again on this decision to call for an independent third party review and to advise the Prime Minister.

Given the complexity of the fact situation, the history of the past Airbus fiasco where former Prime Minister Chrétien inappropriately politicized and personalized the matter that resulted in hindering the RCMP investigtion and causing Canadian taxpayers to pay a libel suit settlement to former Prime Minister Mulroney and the RCMP not being able to get to the bottom of the matter as a result. Add in the dubious reliability of Mr. Schreiber’s credibility who is currently in custody and facing extradition to Germany for fraud and other charges.

This is serious stuff and weighs heavily on the player, not the least of who are the current Prime Minister Stephen Harper and former Prime Ministers Mulroney and Chrétien. Because of the allegations in a sworn affidavit of Mr. Schreiber, it is now also about the integrity, honour and respect of the highest political office in the land, the Prime Minister’s Office.

Perhaps a judicial inquiry is justified but I think Mr. Harper is correct to initially have an independent third party to conduct a review of the facts and circumstances. This will effectively amount to a de facto preliminary inquiry used in criminal proceedings to see if there is enough evidence of sufficient reliability to proceed further.

Stephane Dion and the NDP are calling for a judicial inquiry now. That may be warranted but today, given the history and the circumstances surrounding the allegations and the source of the allegations that may be premature. Let’s get a truly independent third party with experience, wisdom as well as judgment to review the file and advise the PMO.

The test of character issue for Mr. Harper is still extant and we will judge him on who he selects to do the review, terms of reference he gives and the openness he allows and the resources he makes available for the review. Any shortcomings in any of these matters will be viewed as a whitewash.

Mr. Harper is doing the right thing…now he must do it the right way.

Coming Back from Blogworld in Las Vegas - Lots to talk About.

I have been in Las Vegas for three days at the Blogworld and New Media Conference. Lots going on in this new medium. Very exciting times…lots of diversity of people involved. I thought I would be the only one without tattoos and body piercing. I was very wrong. Met lots of interesting people who are all very interested in facilitating the conversation and doing so responsibly.

Sorry I have not been posting as regularly but I am back late Saturday. Checking headlines good to see Harper relenting on an inquiry on the Mulroney-Schreiber affair. Sometimes you have to put away your “principles” and to the right thing.

The discover of carcinogens in the Athabasca river is going to be a hot story that ties in health, environment and the Alberta economy into an integrated whole…too late coming and a prime political challenge.

Curious as to the Alberta privacy commissioner comments that certain government contracts with Murray Smith and Rod Love have no impediments to public release and Premier Stelmach’s refusal to do so…don’t know enough facts yet but this si one to be dug into and followed. Political credibility is on the line here.

Here in Nevada the US economy is now a topic that rivals homeland security as a major concern. The musings by Chinese officials that they may start to diversify their treasury reserve cash holdings (that are enormous) beyond US Dollars has shocked and shaken the confidence down here. Not a major deal yet but American Pride it is an issue with legs.

Political Spin at its Best!

The public has to worry about political spin all the time. I received this example of spin from a friend on the Internet. It is such a fine example I felt it is worth sharing:


Judy Wallman, a professional genealogical researcher, discovered that Hillary Clinton's great-great uncle, Remus Rodham, was hanged for horsestealing and train robbery in Montana in 1889. The only known photograph of Remus shows him standing on the gallows. On the back of the picture is this inscription:

"Remus Rodham; horse thief, sent to Montana Territorial Prison 1885, escaped 1887, robbed the Montana Flyer six times. Caught by Pinkerton detectives, convicted and hanged in 1889.”

Judy e-mailed Hillary Clinton for comments. Hillary's staff of professional image adjusters sent back the following biographical sketch:

"Remus Rodham was a famous cowboy in the Montana Territory. His business empire grew to include acquisition of valuable equestrian assets and intimate dealings with the Montana railroad. Beginning in 1883, he devoted several years of his life to service at a government facility, finally taking leave to resume his dealings with the railroad. In 1887, he was a key player in a vital investigation run by the renowned Pinkerton Detective Agency. In 1889, Remus passed away during an important civic function held in his honor when the platform upon which he was standing collapsed."


And THAT is how it's done folks!

Too Much Heat and Not Enough Light on the Royalty Collection Issues

So now we see the over heated rhetoric and misinformation campaigning move from the energy industry and into the Alberta Legislature. This is a sad “state of affairs.”

The Alberta Liberals are torquing the facts by insinuating criminal intent on the Klein government Ministers of Energy and the current Minister of Energy and is reported to be “suggesting” a criminal investigation may be needed….” Mr. Taft, the Leader of the Alberta Liberals is apparently making these unfounded accusations and he knows better. After all he has a B.A. in political science, a Masters degree in community development and a PhD in business. So this hyping of the facts by such an educated and experienced individual is neither ignorance nor innocence. It is more like the kind of negative, half-truth, Republican-esque partisan politics we have come to expect from Stephen Harper.

The Auditor General Fred Dunn has clearly stated the situation around past royalty collection decisions by the Klein government. This kind of decision is at the discretion of the government and taken by the appropriate Minister, the Energy Minister in this case.

Premier Stelmach also seems to be getting caught up in the torque the facts for effect and rhetoric. He is reported to be tying an “Our Fair Share” recommendation for a proposed Oil Sands Severance Tax as being akin to the NEP and saying such a tax would “cripple the province’s economy.” That is mostly a political judgement. Ironically if Stelmach had kept that severance tax recommendation he would not have to try and renegotiate the Suncor/Syncrude royalty agreements. That tax would have leveled the playing field for the newer projects. That is partly why the Expert Panel recommended the tax.

Political judgment aside, Premier Stelmach goes much further by implying such a "production tax" would drive people out of the province, create a situation where people could not pay their mortgages and many business would go broke…as he suggests happened with the NEP.

The NEP is part of the Alberta mythosphere and we tend to forget that the NEP was negotiated with Alberta. The fact is conveniently forgotten that before the NEP got implemented President Reagan released the US strategic oil supplies. That alone pulled the rug out of the world oil prices and as they plunged they sent the Alberta economy into a tail spin. The NEP would have really hurt Alberta but it didn't, President Reagan got to us first.

The issue of uncollected energy royalties is very clear in the Auditor Generals Report. The administration recommended an increase and that recommendation was rejected by the Minister(s) of the day. That decision was totally within the government discretion so no legal wrong doing is at issue. To project a criminal intent is over the line.

What is at issue here is the quality and consequences of the policy judgment call to not increase royalties and how and why it was made at that time. We elect politicians to make these “hard choices” on our behalf and the issues are never simple and all the facts are never fully known. It is always a judgment call.

So it comes down to a few salient points. Did the Ministers of the day follow a proper review process and analysis of the situation in coming to this discretionary judgment? On what basis did they make the decision and was it a sound judgment and how do they justify the decision as being in the public interest.

The other key question is who did the Klein government listen to in arriving at such decision? Interestingly, Premier Stelmach is quoted now as saying "But at the end of the day, in this government the decisions are made by government, not listening to advice that may come from bureaucracies." "We take advice obviously, from others."

Well I hope the new Lobbyist Act will help us answer the question of just who those "others" are who our elected representatives listen to in the future and why they were so persuasive. We Albertans can then perhaps begin to understand just what part of the public interest those "others" represent. We can also consider if our elected representatives are serving the common good in the exercise of the many discretions they have and the complex decisions they have to make.

Lets remind the politicians of Premier Stelmach's early suggestion to calm down. Lets also get serious about this stuff. There is enough grist for any political mill in these royalty issues that hype and rhetoric are not only unnecessary - it is unhelpful in assisting Albertans in better understanding what is and was going on.

None of this needs to be torqued for effect. The politically motivated manufacturing of misleading media headlines are not helpful. Lets get opportunistic partisan politics out of the royalty deliberations and go right to the debate about how we ensure open, transparent, accountable and good government as the larger goal.

There are signs of hope this could happen. The multi-party support of the NDP motion for an emergency debate on these issues was a step in the right direction…we need more politicians with that greater sense of responsibility and public duty who will stand up like that. Good for those individual MLAs from all parties who voted for the emergency debate. I am looking forward to reading Hansard to see who the real statesmen are on this issue.

Manning Wants a More Comprehensive Policy Approach in Alberta - and He is Right

You have to admire Preston Manning and Peter Lougheed. They both have different takes on the Stelmach’s government responses and the consequences to the “Our Fair Share” Royalty Review Panel recommendations.

Lougheed praised Stelmach and it should be noted Lougheed knows what he is talking about, having raised royalties himself many years ago. The federal Minister for Alberta Jim Prentice also praised the Stelmach response.

Manning, on the other hand, pans Stelmach’s response but not so much on the royalty issues in terms of balance and appropriateness but on the larger issue of the capacity of Stelmach to adequately govern.

Let’s look at what Manning has to say. He accuses Stelmach of tearing up agreements with two major oilsands players (Suncor and Syncrude). That is not the case and Manning knows it. Stelmach has confirmed that those deals run until 2016 and if they are not renegotiated by mutual agreement, they will continue to be honoured.

Manning was on CTV’s Question Period yesterday noting that the Stelmach government may fall into minority territory should another 150,000 Albertans stay home on Election Day. This is in addition to the 210,000 PC supporters who stayed home in the 2004 Klein election. Here is where I agree with Manning, if that happens, Stelmach in minority or even losing territory.

However an election is not here yet and there is lots of time for Stelmach to do the rights thing to restore good government to Alberta…and get the credit for it. That means he needs to be between the far right and the old-style Klein somnambulist approach to governing but also to fix the social and ecological deficits in Alberta to day and going forward. A single minded focus on the economic agenda alone is not good enough.

Now let’s look at the Manning Agenda based on from his reported comments. He notes “…the big picture just hasn’t been spelled out, that’s where I see the problems.” The items in the Manning “big picture” are tying royalty rates to tax policy, continental energy security and environment. And he pointedly asks if Stelmach has the competence to deal with these issues as well. It is a fair and provocative question. It will get distorted and massaged by all kinds of spin-masters but I think Albertans can see through that noise and keep a focus on their core concerns.

Here I think Manning’s focus on what he calls “the big picture” is right on. But I think the focus is not on Stelmach’s competence to govern alone is too narrow. Do any of the political party leaders in Alberta have the trust of Albertans to competently deal with these issues? Our oil sand survey preliminary results show that none of them have generated sufficient trust to deal with growth issues in the province. Stelmach is by far the most trusted political leader in Alberta according to our results but at only 32% support that is not enough to presume electoral success.

There is a need for the political agenda to deal beyond the dollars and get into the environment and social issues and angst that this economic growth has caused. Albertans know that and have moved ahead of the political pundits and politicians to embrace a more comprehensive and integrated approach to public policy and governance. So media sound bites and political personalities aside in the complex real world I think Lougheed, Prentice and Manning are all correct in their comments and observations on the Stelmach royalty response and the potential political and policy consequences to governing.

Albertans will decide all of this in the next election. Staying home and not participating is not a viable option to sustain a robust democracy. My bet is if people are not happy the far right will go to the Alliance or the new Wildrose party if it gets enough signatures to forma party before the election. The left will go Green and the disenchanted middle will also park with the Greens as a way to send a message.

I will shortly post what I think that could mean for all the current political party leaders in the aftermath of the next election.

What Does Responsible and Sustainable Oil Sands Development Mean to You?

So it has been an interesting and intense few weeks since the “Our Fair Share” Royalty Review came out. The ferociousness of the energy industry response and the anger and tactics of many of them was as lively as good theatre. However, the Alberta audience did not suspend their disbelief and we were not transformed by the industry messages or their performances.

The Expert Panel engaged in clarifying, explaining and defending their process, findings and recommendations - and at times even defending themselves. Some were enlightened by the Panel's engagement, others were offended.

Then the Stelmach government came up with its decision and we have seen some interesting post announcement poll results. there have been some supportive endorsements, some serious reservations and others who say Stelmach did not get the job done that should have been done.

This week is considerably quieter. I expect people in the energy industry are trying to digest the economic and political implications of the Stelmach royalty decision and the consequences of their lobbying campaign. Those not directly involved seem to have “moved on” into other issues or back into their so-called “normal” Alberta lives. Others have a lingering sense that there is a new normal emerging in Alberta around citizens relations with government and our governments role with the energy industry coming out of all of this.

After a bit of a breather from the blather, Albertans will once again have to re-engage and this time it should be about the future of the oil sands. We at Cambridge Strategies Inc. and The Policy Channel are already into that re-engagement process. We want to encourage other Albertans back into “active duty” through a survey we are doing on the future of the oil sands.

We are doing this web-based Discrete Choice Modelling survey ourselves and not for any client. It is looking into the values Albertans attribute to the responsible and sustainable development of the oil sands. What we are looking into is what does responsible and sustainable oil sands development mean to Albertans? What is really important about that concept and just how important is the future development of the oil sands to us?

We invite all Albertans to participate. We are actively reaching out to Albertans in all walks of life to have some input. The more the merrier and so far some 2000 Albertans have done the survey. We will use the results to hopefully influence government and industry on future policy directions for our oil sands in ways that align with our values and aspirations.

In the survey you will be given optional scenarios to choose from. Be advised they are not likely to be practical choices but also understand that is not the purpose of the survey. What we want to know is what aspects of the choices offered are the most important and the least important to you. Your choices of the various scenarios sets in the survey will tell us that. Be forewarned, it is not easy. It will take about 8 minutes to do and you will be asked to make some very difficult choices. You will have to make trade-off decisions attributes around oil sands development. Just like real life.

It is an anonymous survey but you can leave an email address at the end of the survey if you want us to send you a report on the results – expected that in mind January.

Here is the link and the survey is in the top left hand corner.

Thanks for participating.

Mr. Harper - Call An Inquiry Into the Mulroney-Schreiber Affair.

The response of the Conservative House Leader Peter Van Loan underscores what is essentially wrong with the Harper Conservative’s fitness for governing. Harper gets good marks for message management but not for managing the right message.

Claiming that a pursuit of facts not previously disclosed surrounding a lawsuit settlement as a vendetta against Mulroney is bad governance. For the Harper Cons this stance and characterization of the initiative as a vendetta is proof of bad judgement in government – and it is very bad politics too.

Mulroney got a $2.1 million dollars of taxpayer’s money but it now appears not all the known facts were disclosed when the settlement was negotiated. The bungling of the RCMP and the political overtones instigated by Prime Minister Chrétien on the events were clouding and confusing the issues. Now we are seeing some further allegations that never came to light in 1997 that should have before the matter was "settled."

Transparent accountable and open government demands full and frank disclosure – especially under the circumstances and emerging story as to the nature of the Mulroney-Schreiber dealings, the timing of them and some previously undisclosed information and allegations.

Mr. Harper touts his Accountability Act and a new standard of ethics and governance, even though a big swack of the provisions are not in force. Is that because he fails, refuses or neglects to proclaim them because he is not really serious about accountability issues or the provisions of the law he passed?

This issue is going to be a major character test for Mr. Harper and his minority government. Is he going to follow the old-school approach of obfuscation, bluff and blustering your way through the issue like Jean Chrétien would have? Or will he take the high road like Paul Martin did in Adscam and call an inquiry because it is the right thing to do regardless of the political consequences.

Canadians want good government that is trustworthy and competent and focused on serving the best interests of citizens. Leadership on this issue is much more important than the usual Harper tactics of media manipulation and message management. Leadership is especially critical given the serious circumstances and allegations that are just now coming to light.

Mr. Harper, this issue is a real confidence vote in you and your government because you will have to face judgment of the citizens of Canada and the consequences of that judgment. We will be asking ourselves if we ought to continue to have any confidence in you and your party to be open, honest, transparent and sustaining any semblance of integrity. Passing a law about accountability is one thing, acting accountably is another.

In reality, it is all mostly about you Prime Minister Harper. You going to be judged by voters by the way you handle this. Will it be ethical an governance issue for you - or purely a political one? We will be watching how you handle this and then asking ourselves if you are still fit for service in the highest office in the land and if you continue to be worthy of our consent to be governed.

Don’t let us down sir. Call the inquiry.

Stelmach Accepts New Governance Recommendations for Agencies, Boards and Commissions

There is another significant step towards better governance in Alberta with the release today of the Premier’s Task Force on Agencies Boards and Commissions. These groups, largely appointed, spend about half of the annual operational budget of the province so they are not insignificant.

There is a full report on line- suffice to say the Premier has accepted 14 of the 15 recommendations and the other one was modified. That recommendation modification was that no elected or senior government officials should be appointed to governing bodies of agencies. The modification was to acknowledge that sometimes. Given the mandate of an agency it is helpful to have elected or senior government officials input.

I see the quibble but such political or administrative input can be obtained very easily without elected or senior government officials being officially appointed to the agency, board or commission. These various groups are formed mostly to get independent and sometimes expert advice (like the Hunter Expert Panel on the Royalty Review) and to take politics and bureaucratic culture out of the deliberations and decision or recommendation making. Having bureaucrats and MLAs appointed and directly in the decision making process tends to undermine that larger and important goal.

The other recommendation that will be the media focus on is going to be on “a competency-based appointment process.” That will be interpreted as code to not just appointing the party faithful. Competency is paramount but it does not eliminate partisanship in appointments. Nor should it. Everything being equal, any government is going to appoint like-minded people to agencies board and commissions because they want alignment with government policy directions and goals. Competency is the first test; pedigree will still be the second test – regardless of which party is forming government.

“Diversity of Appointments” recommendation to reflect the diverse nature of the Alberta population is a great step forward.

Good governance and transparency are in desperate need of policy and political attention in ALberta. This positive response by Stelmach to the recommendations of the Agencies, Boards and Commissions Governance Task Force is one more way Stelmach is getting it done.

New Poll Asks If Stelmach Has Met Public Expectations on Royalties.

I love polls. The latest offering from Leger for CanWest was done from Oct 26-29, immediately after Stelmach’s Royalty Review Response was made public is interesting. The earlier Leger poll found 88 percent of Albertans did not think we were getting our fair share of royalty revenues and two-thirds of us wanted the Hunter Review Panels recommendations fully adopted. That didn't happen and apparently slightly less than half of us are on side with the government's response to the Our Fair Share recommendations.

Since the Hunter Panel report was made public, time passed, positions were taken, threats were made, we had explanations and clarifications. And there was a barage of accusations and predictions about dire consequences if the "Our Fair Share" recommendations were accepted. Through it all the Stelmach government did it own number crunching and made up its own mind.

The Leger results show more about how Albertans were “feeling” last weekend about the Stelmach royalty response. After all it is a complex set of issues and an opinion poll taken immediately after the Stelmach response and done over a weekend is most likely to engender an emotional and reactive response instead of a reflective and considered opinion.

So here is what Leger found about how Alberta "feels." First off we don’t yet have a breakdown between Edmonton, Calgary and rural replies and that is needed to get some better context on the answers. That breakdown will provide more “heft” to the results in terms of the political usefulness of the poll results too.

Secondly I am struck that about 1 in 5 Albertans didn’t yet know how they felt about the questions being asked. That could be because they need time to consider and understand the Stelmach response. It would be interesting to do the same poll this week and that would get a better sense of were Albertans are really at now that they have had time to digest the response and talk to people and read some of the commentary about it.

Thirdly, it is pretty obvious based on my Blog hits, that only 150 people showed up at the CBC Forum on the issue last night and recent conversations with my group of contacts tells me that Albertans have moved on. It seems that royalties are being regarded as a done deal - or - maybe they are merely catching their breath before further engagement. Time will tell.

The Lougheed Test of good policy decision of if all vested interests in the decision are still upset, you probably “got it right.” Seems to be the case here based on these poll results. The key question of did Stelmach get it right we have 47% agreeing, 33% disagreeing and 20% who don’t know. that seems to prove the Lougheed Test of "getting it right."

The most conclusive opinion in the poll was that 61% said the “…industry over-inflated the negative consequences of higher royalties….” 21% sided with industry’s positioning and 18% didn’t know. This is a serious issue for the energy sector now. Albertans don’t believe the industry and the industry can’t rely on the old contacts within government to protect or insulate them from the public (any more). This is especially true after the Auditor General’s Report and his scathing assessment of some aspects of the Department of Energy.

Our own polling has preliminary results showing a full 44% o fus do not trust any of the political party leaders to manage growth in Alberta. So as we go deeper into the election "red zone," our politicians are going to be much more mindful of meeting the public’s expectations as to their trustee role around resource development. Deals on royalties done behind closed doors will see politicians punished in the polls and at the ballot box – no matter who is in office.

Of course if Albertans go back to being passive and impotent- nothing will change. It is up to the citizens of Alberta to continue to become better informed and more engaged.

We need to start acting like an owner and behaving like a voter. An election is coming.

Lougheed Endorses Stelmach's Royalty Review Response.

The personal endorsement by Peter Lougheed of the Stelmach Royalty Review Response is a big step forward for our new Premier. Lougheed stepping up in support of the recent royalty announcement is significant. Lougheed is an influential voice all over the province and he comes from the small group of Alberta political leaders who have made such difficult decisions in the past. He knows how tough it is and his approval of Stelmach’s decision speaks volumes.

Lougheed has been openly advocating for a slow down of energy project approvals because of the damage they are inflicting due to the overheated pace of growth in Alberta. His big concerns have been damage socially and environmentally but also on fiscal pressures on the province and municipalities to meet the public infrastructure demands in this current pace of growth.

Lougheed’s advice and response is in sharp contrast to the warnings of former Premier Klein last month. Klein was commenting that the energy sector was not happy and therefore royalties were best left well enough alone. Stelmach wisely left that bit of advice alone.

So Lougheed has clarified one thing. Stelmach’s government is definitely not an extension of the Klein regime. There are some who think Stelmach's kindness, politeness and graciousness are shortcomings for the bloodsport of political leadership. They see him as still having the potential to be a Harry Strom, especially if he were to trip up in the pending election.

So what does this tell us about the governing philosophy of a Stelmach governed Alberta? To me it is more evidence of a Stelmach government embracing a progressive social political philosophy. He is about to engage in a more conservationist approach too as we shall see the roll out of some new environmental initiatives and the start up of an integrated land use management strategy.

The fact that a commitment to deal with homelessness as the follow up policy initiative right after the royalty decision is further proof of this shift away from the former neo-con fiscal and social policy agenda. Today in Alberta we have a spending problem due to a premium cost for public infrastructure in this over heated economy. We also now have a revenue problem too – as pointed out by the Auditor General.

Alberta's Auditor General Fred Dunn said some past Ministers of Energy were not collecting all of the energy royalties that were due - even in the old model. In fact those same Ministers of Energy seemed to be even uninterested in doing their duty of ensuring the appropriate royalty revenues due to Albertans were actually being realized.

I think that is about to change - big time - and we will see Premier Ed Stelmach as his own man and with his own style of leadership. Yes, he is not be the slick and polished veneer pre-packaged politician. He is not the product of the professional media trainers the mainstream media is so used to. Yes - he is no orator either...and while he can't "lift the words off the page," he has shown that he can bring clarity to complex issues like royalty regimes.

But no one can doubt Ed Stelmach’s capacity for caring, nor his compassion nor his sincere commitment to Alberta and her people. He is also different because his focus is not just the Alberta of today…or basking in the glory of an Alberta of yesterday. He has a much broader and longer vision of the province and how it should be governed.

Now the lingering question is – is Stelmach capable of doing the job of Premier to the satisfaction of Albertans? He has been on the job for 11 months already and that question is still being asked. Well my guess is we are about 100 days or so away from an election. Those 100 days is more than enough time for Albertans to come to know Ed Stelmach for who he is – as his own man and with his own style of leadership.

Once the election is called it will be up to Albertans to decide if Ed Stelmach can do the job of Premier – and if they want him to do that job. Remember campaigns matter and it is not how they start, but how they finish that really counts.

Besides, Peter Lougheed obviously likes him and that goes a long way in my books.

What Political Leadership Qualities and Skills Do We Really Want and Need These Days?

I am intrigued by the Ipsos Reid poll of October 16th where 1001 Canadians gave Stephen Harper a 63% positive rating for “leadership qualities and skills” and they gave Dion a 36% positive rating on the same question. I wonder how many phone calls they made before 1001 people would answer. I wonder how many cell phone numbers were used to capture the opinions of younger citizens.

I wonder what criteria the poll participants had in mind and used for determining “leadership qualities and skill” when they were answering those questions. I wonder if they applied the same criteria to considering Dion as they did to Harper when they answered. How much of the value drivers behind the answers for each candidate were the same or different and why? Were Albertans using different criteria than Maritimers when they answered the questions?

The levels of "Don’t Know" response around Dion shows he is relatively unknown. One wonders how much of this is poll result driven by name recognition. Does it really give us any meaningful assessment of leadership qualities and skills of the various party leaders?

What are the criteria we should or could be applying to judge the leadership qualities and skill of political leaders like Harper, Dion and Layton? Should we vote mostly by "what is in it for me" in what the leaders are promising? Are we driven more by group interests of our community, town or special interests? Are we deciding based on altruism and how a leader reflects our own ideals and principles and how much we trust him? What are the value drivers in our choices around "identity politics?"

Do we like a dominant, assertive ambitious personality types and someone who likes conflict and aggression as our leader? Is a more inspiring and persuasive personality that will be more attractive to us as a leader? Do we find a leader who is of great character, with carefully considered and well thought out and clearly stated opinions to be more appealing? Are we keen on someone who is reflective and caring about citizen’s personal aspirations individually and for our country as well as giving good value for our tax dollars?

Are we at all attracted to leaders who are insightful, adaptive and wise with relevant knowledge, experience and one who is skilled at adaptive governing for our rapidly changing times? Or are we all about choosing a leaders who is pure hardball politics where winning isn’t everything, it’s the only thing. Are we attracted to party leaders where clever and sharp political players where power politics always trumps good governing?

Do we like leaders who see it all as a game where personal pride and power dominates the motivations. Do we seek out and choose a "win at any cost" kind of politician and do we see any other more collaborative and inclusive approaches to leadership as a weakness?

My guess is there a lot more going on in the minds of Canadians when they really sit down and evaluate the leadership qualities and skills of our political leaders. I think an ordinary opinion poll asking us to choose between a political “Coke or Pepsi” is not going to give us much useful information or insight. We need to look deeper into those larger and more meaningful questions about qualities and character and style issues around political leadership as we seriously consider granting our consent to be governed at the ballot box.

Citizens need to be considering bigger questions and seek a deeper understanding of what we want in our leaders as people and personalities and political decision makers. We need more definition and deliberation about leadership before we will get anything meaningful in the answers we would give to pollsters. This especially true around complex issues like what leadership qualities and skills do we really want and need and if either leader "X" or "Y" actually meets those needs.

Stelmach Stakes Out His Leadership of the PC Party With His Royalty Review Response

I never made it to Calgary for the PC Alberta Policy Conference but all reports tell me it was a very successful event, well attended with lots of enthusiastic delegates. Premier Stelmach’s message on royalties was well received as was his replies in the open mike session Sunday morning.

For over a month it has been royalties and nothing but royalties that have dominated the Alberta political and policy agenda. The Premier has made it very clear that the royalty decision has been taken and he is moving on with some other policy agenda items as well. Homelessness is one area he has indicated action is needed, as well as the unfunded liability for teachers’ pensions will be getting resolved sooner than later. There is a crime strategy that is soon to be announced as well.

I expect more environmental announcements in the near future on integrated land management and conservation policies coupled with sustainability and responsible resource management requirements. Support for environment related innovation and new efforts for setting realistic standards for air and water in the face of the growing economy are likely to be forthcoming too.

The Premier said that the 20 year capital plan will be settled before an election is announced. That work will likely renew some interest in reviving the 20 Year Strategic Plan for Alberta too. Contrary to what the former Premier said, there was a Plan. The 20 Year Strategic Plan was a framework document that was prepared from a consultation approach. It was accepted by government as policy and then promptly shelved in the Klein days of doing nothing.

So this weekend policy conference showed that the wounds from the leadership campaigns are healing well. Some Party members have quit picking at the scabs and are moving on with a renewed focus on the future. There is a new sense of cohesion coming back in the Alberta PC party as its membership hunkers down on nominations, election readiness and starts thinking anew about the future of the province.

While some mainstream media and the NDP are "reading entrails" and parsing the Premier’s language for signs of an early election, it is pretty clear that we are going into a spring election.

Premier Stelmach is going to be busy between now and the spring election. He is putting a lot more on his political plate beyond the royalties issues. He knows there is more to do to be sure of an effective royalty policy implementation but he has to also ensure there is a new openness and accountability on royalty rates and revenues too.

We need to be sure the Suncor/Syncrude deals are aligned or the playing flied is level for other projects. We need to get into a real market model for butumen pricing. We need to look into project overruns and what costs are legitimate to set off on projects so there is no gold plating that ends up costing Albertans foregone royalty revenues.

I am going to be watching very carefully that execution and review of the royalty monitoring and reform that former Auditor General Valentine is doing is public and promulgated. We Albertans have to keep out vigilence up and the momentum up on this aspect too so. It is up to citizens to be sure the owners’ interests are protected. To do that citizens have to underatke the personal responsibility to get become and stay informed...just like they have in the past month on royalties.

This is going to have to be a cultural change around oil sand royalties monitoring and collection. This is going to be a challenge for some administrators, and some old-school politicians too. Culture change is never easy but it is definitely necessary in this situation. I will be watching and reminding our government of Einstein's observation that you can't solve a problem with the same consciousness that caused it in the first place. Changes have to be made!

The Energy Industry Credibilty in Alberta is in Shreds.

So the polls showed Albertans did not believe Big Oil as to the “sky is falling and we are leaving Alberta rhetoric of the “Our Fair Share” Royalty Review. The Stelmach response on royalties shows the government did not believe Big Oil either.

And today the markets showed they did not believe Big Oil either. The markets were normal in the face of this “catastrophe,” even as of some “analysts” engaged in a pending disaster feeding frenzy to the business media claiming the markets were destined to be a disaster due to a new royalty regime.

So the energy sector has a credibility problem now. Not all of the companies in the sector deserve the growing public disdain that has been brought on the energy sector but tar and feathers are not often discriminating and tend to cover the entire sector.

So now the energy sector in Alberta might be well advised to do some serious soul searching and maybe engage in a bit of real honest communication with their landlords. Not any campaigns based on slick PR exercises or full page media ad-buys based on misinformation and “messaging.” I am talking about a genuine and authentic effort to reach out to Albertans to understand how the industry is perceived. I am talking about the Alberta that is outside of Calgary, and about Calgarians who are outside the industry.

It is time the energy industry started focusing on proving to us that they are appropriate and responsible resource developers and know what sustainable stewardship of this public nonrenewable resource is. For example, if the drilling is down now why are you not focusing on catching up on some long over due well site reclamation and site contamination clean up. There will be rig workers looking for work I hear. Why not use them and start a renewed focus on responsible stewardship fixing your shredded image in this way

The Alberta forestry industry has made that shift in consciousness to responsible, sustainable stewardship already. Surely the mighty energy industry in Alberta is at least as smart and as capable of adapting as the “Lumberjacks.”

Thank You to the Expert Panel for the "Our Fair Share" Royalty Review Report.

The government's announcement yesterday is truly historic, and marks a new beginning in Alberta's stewardship of its natural resources. We Albertans owe a great debt of gratitude to the citizens who served on the panel and the various consultants, advisers and Alberta government administrators who helped them.

The final decision of the Stelmach government decision on the royalty review recommendations is historic. Part of the historic nature of the decision is how very closely it aligned with the major themes of the “Our Fair Share” Royalty Review Report recommendations. For example the province decided to implement the 20% recommended royalty rate hike but in a slightly different mix than suggested by the government appointed Expert Panel.

Overall, the government changes vary little from the goals of the Expert Review Panel. The new Stelmach framework will boost government take for natural gas from 58% today to 60%, rather than 63% as recommended by the panel; for conventional oil, government take goes up 5% to 49%, which is what the panel proposed; for oil sands, government share increases to between 57% and 66%, when the panel was recommending an increase to 64%."

The move to a price sensitive base royalty is largely the same thing as the Panel’s recommendation for a Severance Tax with a slightly different trigger price and a few other technical differences.

The months of intense research, review, revision and rehashing and yes I expect lots negotiation between the panel members would not have been easy. They researched, wrote and presented a comprehensive frank and forward thinking document. It is an esay read, full of clarity and sound analysis, and in the end it proved to be a quality piece of work reflecting a great deal of collective wisdom.

Another historic event was when Premier Stelmach immediately released the report upon receiving it. That early non-traditonal report released pioneered a new and novel openness to modern democracy and enabled an informed debate in Alberta. That unprecedented move fueled a province-wide discussion and dialogue amongst Albertans in all walks of life about the future of their province.. It empowered people and encouraged them to become informed. It created a wave of citizen engagement amongst Albertans in their democracy that you don’t even see at election time.

However, the “Our Fair Share” Royalty Review Report obviously spoke volumes to the people of Alberta and the Government of Alberta. The Stelmach response shows he accepted the essence, pith and substance of the Royalty Review Report findings and made only minor modifications to the final recommendations.

Even the opposition Liberal party came out endorsing it. In addition, virtually unanimous agreement on the key issue outlined in the report amongst all of the political parties of note in this province. That range of political support is historic too.

So, as one Albertan to the Panel, I what to say thank you to all those who worked so hard, long and effectively on the “Our Fair Share” document and especially the six experts who lead the effort. And thank you Premier Stelmach for embracing the concepts and adapting them so effectively for the future prosperity of Alberta. In my mind almost equally as important was the way Premier Stelmach openly enabled and encouraged the inclusion of Albertans and how we Albertans became informed and engaged so effectively in the future of their own province.

I smell some real democracy in the clean fresh Alberta air again...and it is about time.

Stelmach Finds the Balance in the Response to the Royalty Review

OK – I have to say I am very pleased with Premier Stelmach’s response to the royalty review process – for sure at the economic level. I am also very relieved and comfortable at the political level. There is an election coming up and my money is on March 2008

I have spoken with Bill Hunter tonight and he is very pleased with the government’s response to the Royalty Review Panel’s recommendations as well. There is still some devil in the details and quibbles but the former can be worked out and the latter are nothing to get worked up about. I like the January 1, 2009 start date. It gives enough time to retool the computers and create the software programs needed to calculate the new sliding scale, market price royalty rates and for government to make the necessarty legislative and regulatory amendments. It give industry time to adjust too. It is not so long as to take an sense of importance and urgency away from getting these changes made either.

One detail is that undoubtedly some pundits and politicians will accuse Stelmach of leaving ½ Billion on the table because the Panel calculated a $2B larger government take on their model and the government today said they estimate a $1.4B increase in take. I didn’t think this meant the government was leaving money on the table so and I confirmed my understanding with Hunter tonight.

The difference is that the Panel did not account for the conventional gas Deep Well and Flaring royalty holidays in their calculations and the government put them back in. The government was clear they were reaffirming both subsidies and that is the difference between the “government take” numbers. Conventional gas gets more form the government decision than the Panel recommend.

That is a policy decision to stay the course to continue the help for conventional gas they currently enjoy in these two programs. Notwithstanding, I expect Big Oil will be officially ticked and say so for the next days. Some may be reckless enough to lay off people in the next few days for dramatic effect and making their employees pawns in a tawdry political game. I hope that doesn’t happen but given recent history, I would not be surprised.

I like the fact that there is going to be a negotiation between Suncor and Syncrude now over there current agreements. Stelmach has confirmed no grandfathering but also that these contracts with these two companies are going to be honoured - unless of course they are amended by mutual agreement.

I think those companies will see that while they are in the unique position of having have a better deal right now, but in 2016 it is over. They are in the oil sands for 50 – 60 years so an extended time of more royalty certainty will no doubt be attractive.

There are lots of issues to discuss from the Stelmach royalty response today and I will do so in a series of subsequent postings. For now I can say Ed Stelmach did not get caught in the CAPP versus Review Panel game…that was never where the “balance” had to be found. There was and is so much more to consider in arriving at the right balance and Stelmach has done that.

What Premier Stelmach has taken is to take the Panel’s input, the consultation process input, the various pieces of advice (and threats and insults) since he made the “Our Fair Share” report public all into consideration. Then he applied some of his own thinking and principles and he has designed a very solid and sensible strategy that does take care of Alberta’s interests and provides fairness and firmness to the energy sector. Well done Ed…now lets get down to work and make this response well understood by Albertans and lets be sure they get accurate, timely and regular reports on how well it is working.

When It Comes To Trust and Truth on Royalties - Who Will Albertans Believe?

Every now and then you get a concise and comprehensive discussion of complex issues and how they inter-relate. It is well known that the communications cure for complexity is clarity not the KISS approach to merely making it simple but inevitably inaccurate.

Such is the case with the wonderful clarity of Derek DeCloet’s column in the Report on Business in today’s Globe and Mail. The key message is in the closing sentence where he says most Albertans don’t believe the doom and gloom messages of the oil patch. They also don’t appreciate the name calling and intimidation tactics they used.

At Cambridge Strategies we are in the middle of a major discrete choice modelling survey on Albertan’s value and attitudes about responsible and sustainable oil sands development. So far we have over 1300 Albertans telling us which of the current Alberta political party leaders do they trust the most to responsibly manage Alberta’s growth. The winner at 43% was NONE OF THE ABOVE.

Now it is over to the Stelmach government who was in second place in the survey with 33% trusting him. What will he say today about his government's approach to non-renewable resource royalties? What will it matter if most Albertans don’t believe or trust him or any of the other political leaders either?

The content of what Stelmach says today is going to be very important. But so is how he says it and if his presentation resonates with Albertans and and I am talking substance here - not speaking style. Equally important is how authentic Albertans perceive him to be when he announces his decision.

Today is indeed going to be a watershed day for Alberta, Albertans and political leaders from all parties to whom we have given our consent to govern us.

Premier Stelmach Brought Progressive Conservative Politics Back to Alberta Tonight

OK I heard Premier Stelmach’s TV speech tonight – and I took notes. Overall impression is that the Progressive Conservatives are back and governing the province of Alberta and it is high time.

Tonight Ed Stelmach outlined a fulsome and a comprehensive set of social progressive and fiscal conservative values, principles. He covered a wide range of issues that, as Premier, he wants to deal. And, by the way, he spoke very well too.

He accepts that the management of our growth by the government has not been good. Bloody awful growth management has been the governing hallmark in the past 8 years if you ask me. In fact at Cambridge Strategies Inc. we just completed the first phase of a large discrete choice modeling survey project we are working on and we polled on this issue.

We just asked 1200 Albertans in an on-line survey conducted between October 17 and 22, “of the current political party leaders in Alberta, whom do you trust the most to responsibly manage Alberta’s growth?” This sample size has accuracy within ± 3.0 percentage points, 19 times out of 20 BTW.

Guess who won. None of the above! That is right. The actual results were 43.02% answered ‘none of the above’. Ed Stelmach and the Progressive Conservatives garnered 32.9%. Kevin Taft and the Liberals received 10.7%. The NDP earned 6%; the Greens, just over 5%; and the Alliance, 2.2%. There is lots of room for improvement – in every party and for every leader. We will post more on this survey on Policy Channel tomorrow at www.policychannel.com

Our political leadership, regardless of party, is not seen by Albertans as being properly engaged in effectively managing Alberta’s growth. This is going to be a ballot question next election, as is environment. The only thing to change the ballot questions is if the Premier misses the mark on the royalty and related issues tomorrow. Then openness and integrity in government will take centre stage as a ballot box question. That will be because Albertans will react to the Ralph Regime reality of poor royalty monitoring and lax collection practices plus former Ministers of Energy refusing to revise the royalties, even when recommended, for seemingly pure political reasons.

Based on what I heard Premier Stelmach say tonight…he is going to be right on the mark on royalties tomorrow. Tonight he was talking full blown Transformational Option #4 that I described in my blog posting earlier today. Will he go as far as I suggested in today’s post? Time will tell but his heart has always been there and, based on what he said tonight, his head is clearly and concisely there too.

With that approach and that agenda he can move the 43% from “None of the above” into supporting a positive Progressive Conservative policy agenda in the next election. This political philosophy change away from a far-right paternalistic, passively indifferent approach to governing is long overdue in Alberta. That change is coming and it was confirmed tonight as Ed Stelmach decisively distanced himself from the old style politics of the Ralph Klein Regime.

Tomorrow is another day and at 3:00 pm I expect to hear an even more assertive and affirmative Ed Stelmach on royalties. I expect he will lay out a comprehensive, integrated, open, accountable, fair and long term royalty decision that will serve all Albertans well.

Good start tonight Mr. Premier. Now seal the deal tomorrow.

What Are Alberta Ed's Royalty Review Options Tomorrow?

So here we are, two days away from an event that could change the culture and consciousness of Alberta for at least a generation. Premier Stelmach is going live on the Internet to present and explain his government’s plans for the stewardship and management of our non-renewable energy resources.

Every engaged and influential Alberta citizen will be watching his TV address tonight. Many more will be glued to the Internet at 3:00 pm tomorrow to here in detail what he has to say about royalties. In any event by the end of the week Albertans will have finally come to know who Ed Stelmach really is. They will make up their minds as to what kind of character they think he is and what kind of leader they think he will be.

I sure don’t know what the outcome will be on Thursday. I have done some “what if” thinking about some options and the political implications in each case. I think there are five paths open to the Premier to take on royalties.

1 He Blinks! This is an approach based on minimalist tinkering and timidity with no substantial change. The conclusion will be that review process was just an exercise of "going through the motions" and fear of change and the industry are the guiding principles. This will be interpreted as a big industry win and voters will be angry since polls show 88% want changes made. Albertans who are now “Thinking like Owners” will begin “Acting Like a Voter” and we end up with a minority government – likely PC but no guarantees.

2 He Creates Confusion! He cherry picks pieces out of the “Our Fair Share” Report. As a result no one owns the ideas and nobody can understand what exact the policy goals are or what the proposed implementation means are to get there. This will seen as a big industry win and will be characterized by the pre-payout royalty going up to 3% and no severance tax and a post payout royalty of less than the 33% recommended by the Review Panel. Politically this will be interpreted that Ed is just a Ralph Rerun. Voters will disengage again and harbour grudges. PC supporters will stay away from the election in droves resulting in a minority government.

3 He Reacts Like A Progressive Conservative! He accepts the “Our Fair Share” recommendations as a package In addition his Progressive focus will be on new opportunities like synthetic gas from coal, Coal Bed Methane extraction, biomass and tying together with a major push for funding for Greening of the Growth as the overarching principle for the next Alberta energy strategy. His Conservative side will announce major policy changes to ensure accountability and transparency in the relationships between the owners and the tenants in the energy sector. He will outline stricter policy initiatives for calculating, monitoring and collecting royalties in response to the Auditor General’s recent report. This gives industry certainty and cleans up the governance mess in the Department of Energy.

Politically Albertans will be encouraged but will wait to see if the actions align with the rhetoric. If no authentic action is taken before the election PCs will abandon the party under his leadership. It will be worse than Ralph in 2004. I expect as many as 350,000 previous loyal supporters and volunteers will stay home through the campaign and on election day. Advantage Taft but this election he will have to earn our consent to govern. He cannot just wait for Ed to lose it.

4 He Goes Bold and Transforms the Province! In addition to option #3 he initiates the environment and technology fund idea in the Afterward of the “Our Fair Share” Report. He announces a major policy moves towards a comprehensive integrated economic, societal and environmental approach for the future of Alberta. He moves into a transformational mode and weaves in the Water for Life, Clean Air and Integrated Land Management strategies into the emerging Energy Strategy. He repositions the consciousness from today were the society is there to serve the economy to where the economy is more focused on meeting the needs of the society.

He balances revenues between short term infrastructure needs and savings for the long term aspirations of Albertans. And he puts conservation back into conservative politics and by protecting wildlife habitat and watersheds and water supplies and pushing for more and faster energy industry land reclamation. Ed defines the next Alberta and imbues the province with a new consciousness that emphasizes sustainability, responsibility and openness. He calls an election in February and wins a majority government based on fresh ideas and lots of fresh faces in Caucus and Cabinet. Alberta becomes recognized a leading force in energy, environment, innovation and investment.

5 The Nightmare Response! The nightmare scenario is “The Muddle of the Road.” This is not a variation of the Blinking or Confusion option. It is all of them together with the added instability of confusion trumping clarity, uncertainty over sureness, deconstruction of complex concepts instead of integration of related initiatives. There will be no definitive leadership statement declaring obvious goals and a game plan to get there. We would not have any articulated sense of the direction and preferred destination by the government arising from the royalties and the review. This will be the worst of all possible worlds for the industry and investment, for governing and politics and ultimately for the people and families of Alberta.

So which way is it going to be under Premier Stelmach? I have no idea but I am pulling for the transformation of Scenario #4. That said, I know one thing for sure. No matter which way this thing goes on Thursday, we Albertans are well advised to fasten our seat belts – it is going to be one hell of a ride.