Dion Wants the Court Challenges Program Back

Dion calls for the reinstatement of the Court Challenges program cut by the Harper Cons. Good for him.

The Cons say “why would the government fund people who want to challenge official government policy through the Courts?” They also say the Court Challenges Program was not much more than a pool of cash for lawyers to access to irritate the government. That seems to be the extent of the rationale for Harper to cut the program. It has been cut before, by the Mulroney government and later reinstated.

The fundamental reason to have the program is to enable differing opinions to challenge government policy based on law and its interpretation, not political whims as the Cons imply. It is a very worthwhile program and one that reflects a mature democracy, not the stern disciplinary “father knows best stance” and Harper “is your daddy” of the current federal Bush-like CPC government.

In the spirit of full disclosure I have been one of the lawyers who have accessed the Court Challenges “pool of cash” in order to fight a government policy. We acted on behalf of a group of Franco-Albertans who wanted to exercise their Section 23 Charter rights for a minority French language school in Alberta. This action was contrary to the stated policy of the Government of Alberta, under then Premier, Peter Lougheed.

Lougheed’s government was one of the most enlightened of the day but the animus towards bilingualism and the sense that “French was being shoved down or throats” was still alive in Alberta in those days. The obvious political position of the Alberta government was taken and they argued that there were not enough French speaking people to pass the “where number warrant” test in the legislation.

The Alberta government fought us all the way to the Supreme Court. Our client’s, who were ordinary citizens and not independently wealthy, could not afford to continue the battle without the aid of the Court Challenges program. I believe we got the last funds from the program just before Mulroney killed it.

The “where number warrant” test in the legislation is what the case turned on. How to prove you had enough French speaking people to warrant a minority language school system was a big legal challenge to be sure. What was the minimum number of minority French language speaking people in an area that was needed to justify a school?

We had a stroke of genius one day and thought the maximum test for sufficient numbers should be the same number of students as in the smallest English speaking school jurisdiction in Alberta. Eureka! We found a mainstream school jurisdiction under Alberta law in Waterton Lakes National Park that had only 23 students but they had an elected School Board, a Superintendent and a full blown delivery system for only 23 student.

BTW, the Supreme Court agreed with us and we won the case. The francophone school system in Alberta is now well established, highly respected and thriving all over the province.

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Stelmach, Hancock and Oberg's Fingerprints are All Over the Alberta Budget.

So the Stelmach government has really differentiated itself for the Klein days with this budget. It has strong evidence of immediate responses to well known and identified problems and towards some serious planning. The feedback Stelmach, Oberg and Hancock received during the PC leadership campaign has had an obvious impact on this Budget. The entire set of Budget documents are on line and I encourage you to read them

It is about the past, the present and the future. It has lots of catch up spending with almost a 40% increase in infrastructure funding for the infrastructure deficit and to respond to growth. It also adds 10% to current operational spending to deal with a 5% cost increase due to growth and inflation. It also sets up some longer term planning, a line by line departmental review looking at program efficiency and effectiveness and imposes some in-year discipline, something sadly missing in the Klein years.

The long-view is evident throughout the document including a commitment to find solutions to the various unfunded pension liabilities including the teacher’s pension plan which is one of the most unfair fiscal situations we have in Alberta. Some tinkering has been done in the interim but a major decision to take on the entire unfunded liability has to be taken. It will result in massive savings in the long term if the bullet is bitten now.

New and interesting items are a tax increase on tobacco. The 17% tax hit is the first salvo in a major assault on tobacco use in the province. This is the lowest hanging fruit towards better control health care spending and better health outcomes for Albertans. It is part of the new emphasis on wellness that Hancock will be pushing through the policy making process this session.

Another positive start is the embedding of about an 18% increase in the disability sector. This puts about $11.3B in the base for staffing recruitment and retention. Not enough but a start. Alberta spends some $530B on persons with disabilities these days and this program area will no doubt be seriously scrutinized for efficiency and effectiveness in the up coming Treasury Board review. As well the governance system is open to question too. The recent disbanding of the provincial board that represent the government in this area signals a further review in the regional governance system too.

A new day is dawning with this Budget. Dr. Oberg at a breakfast this morning noted this Budget was very much a Caucus document and involved direct input from MLAs because it was reviewed and designed by the various policy committees. That is more indication of a better sense of good governance changes coming from the Premier’s office.

Oberg noted this morning the next Budgets planning starts today and is already scheduled to be released February 14, 2008. That will be the election budget and we shall see how it differs from yesterday’s very positive document.

Alberta's Budget Looks Like Stelmach is Going "Full Steam Ahead"

It is Budget Day in Alberta. Indications are for record spending om operations and capital and proof the new Stelmach government is going to be big on planning. Albertans are going to be paying a premium for public infrastructure projects given the overheated economy, lack of labour and shortages of materials but the overwhelming needs that are being caused by rapid growth.

Some economists are calling for restraint and delay in such projects. We shall see what Finance Minister Oberg has in mind in how to proceed in a few hours.

I will be at the Legislature this afternoon to read the the documents and collect my thoughts. I will post my preliminary comments on the Budget tomorrow or late tonight.

This is Budget will undoubtedly be a dramatic change of course for the Alberta government and there will be lots to talk about I expect.

Appeal Court Confirms Ander's Conservative Nomination "Improper"

UPDATE: April 22, 2007 - Don Martin comments on Rob Anders in the Calgary Herald.


Rob Anders has to be re-nominated in Calgary West if he want to run in the next election. This time the nomination has to be for real! The Appeal Court upheld the original Queens Bench judgment that overturned Anders “unanimous nomination” for the Cons (no pun in ended) in Calgary West.

Anders lost – democracy rules.

Certain "party persons" who were found not to be acting appropriately are now resigning from their Calgary West CPC constituency posts. The whole messy business has to be done over and done fairly this time. The CPC better hope for its own integrity that Anders loses this nomination - but in a fair fight this time.

It is now proven that the Conservative Party of Canada, under Prime Minister Stephen Harper, can’t even run a fair and open simple single constituency nomination – even amongst their own party membership. This is nothing short of a wanton disrespect for democracy given the facts surrounding the Anders' so-called nomination.

The utter hubris of the argument Anders offered during the appeal is absolutely breath taking. Media reports say:
"...a lawyer for Anders argued that the MP would suffer irreparable harm if he had to fight a new nomination race in the wake of his disputed acclamation last summer. "He cannot fairly and effectively fight a new nomination battle while performing his duties as a sitting MP in a minority government.,"

The powers that were in Calgary West seemed to think rules are for little people and not the powerful people. How far does this reprehensible attitude prevail in the rest of the Conservative Party of Canada.

Why, with this now proven deplorable behaviour and this insufficient set of attitudes and values, would we risk entrusting these kinds of politicians with our consent to govern us. How can we expect them to respect and protect the rights and privileges of all Canadian citizens when they do not even do it for their own party faithful?

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Harper' s Senate Appointment Throws a Bone to His Base.

Prime Minister Harper’s recent heuristics are starting to show that he is really getting the hang of this symbolic political gesture thing. The two flags over Vimy Ridge and the idea awarding of the Victoria Cross to the Unknown Soldier are two stunning examples. It appears the Veteran’s lobby against awarding the medal to the Unknown Soldier has worked because it seems to have disappeared from the PMO’s agenda.

But now we have a master stroke. Prime Minister Harper’s announcement today Senate appointing Bert Brown, one of Alberta’s “elected” and so-called “Senators-in-Waiting” is at the very heights of political uber-symbolism - especially in Harper's Alberta.

Bert Brown is a nice guy and no doubt will be a great Senator. He is seen as a little single minded about Senate reform and has run, and won, three times in the Alberta elected Senators charade. He is a good man and congratulations are in order for him personally.

What is interesting here is the Prime Minister’s politics around the appointment. Sure the PMO couched this appointment it in terms of Bill C-43 and how serious Harper is about “moving forward on Senate Reform.” Don’t be fooled. This Senate appointment is Harper throwing a bone to his base, the CPC membership in Alberta, who, by the way, is seriously alienated from him these days.

Anger amongst the Alberta base is now to the point that, while it is still below the surface, the grumbling is now about Harper’s “betrayal.” He is seen as blatantly courting Quebec for personal power and ignoring the fiscal conservative principles of the party and playing for fools the very people in Alberta who feel they “brung him to the dance.”

As for courting Quebec, I would not be surprised if Harper is already in quiet backroom talks with his new best friend in Quebec, Mario Dumont. The leader of the ADQ sees himself as the “Prime Minister in Waiting of the Autonomous State of Quebec.” Dumont is flirting with opening up Constitutional reform where Quebec will finally sign in on the Constitution Act of 1982 in exchange for cash, and who knows what else. Is Harper taking the bait?

By the way, Prime Minister Harper, all of this would have been done by now, including an elected, effective and equitable Senate, if the Reform Party hadn't scuttled the Charlottetown Accord back in the day.

If Harper is serious about dealing with appeasing his Alberta base he doesn’t need to play with Constitutional amendments, or to entice Quebec or any interminable dance for Senate Reform. As an Albertan, Prime Minister Harper I have a couple of suggestions for some real changes that you can do it right now, without Constitutional amendments, that will really resonate with all Albertans.

It is high time to reapportion the seats in the House of Commons. Alberta and BC together have 64 seats in the House of Commons and the same population as Quebec, who has 75 seats. Alberta has a population of 3.3 million, and growing, but only has 28 seats. Saskatchewan and Manitoba have a combined population of 2 million and have 28 seats between them. Mr. Prime Minister, are you starting to see what is unfair with this picture?

Why not reapportion or create more House of Commons seat for Alberta and BC right now…before the next election…no doubt they would all vote for you and besides, it is only fair! And while you are at it can you change the per capita grants too? The population figures Ottawa uses for such per capita distributions are from the 2001 census even though we have new numbers for 2006. Alberta has added almost a million people since 2001 I’ll bet. Not fair, not fair at all.

Come to think of it Stats Can seems to be out on it population estimates of Fort McMurray and Grande Prairie by as much as 50%. Perhaps Alberta should do its own census and send the real numbers to you so they can be used in calculating per capita distributions for your Alberta.

After all you are not only the Prime Minister of Canada and Quebec's best friend in Ottawa, you are an important Member of Parliament from Alberta too. You can claim ad infinitum that your Alberta base has been screwed by the old Liberal government for the past 13 years. It is still being screwed today - and you know it and you can fix it.

Fixing those alienating factors for your home province will overcome any feelings of betrayal by your base given your romancing of Quebec. And it will be much easier to accomplish and more meaningful back home than Senate reform. You can do it and you should do it. But get at it right now, especially given the time you have left to govern before the next election. Time's a'wastin'!

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Democracy is Alive and Well and Growing in Alberta

UPDATE MAY 2 - The Editorial Board of the Edmonton Journal is into this issue today...and supportive of the changes Hancock is making in how the Alberta Legislature works as a representative democracy. As I said it is good to smell democracy in the air.


The “historic” (in Alberta terms) end of “closed-door policy making" last Tuesday is one of the most significant indications of the fundamental differences the Stelmach version of Progressive Conservative governance will be from the past regime. Alberta is the last province to have all-party policy groups. While this is hardly Poland's Solidarity or the former Soviet Union's Perestroika, it is clear in Alberta, The times they are a'changin'!

The new Policy Field Committees, with representation from all parties, will have the power to call public hearings and summon witnesses on any government issue. Ministers can refer Bills for scrutiny and apparently that is happening on Alberta's long overdue lobbyist registry legislation. Each committee will handle a specific policy area so they can develop some expertise and context depth too. A new level of accountability and transparancy will emerge. Another good thing.

Putting opposition members on the recent Affordable Housing Task Force was a foreshadowing of this new attitude toward good governanceby Premier Stelmach. The Task Force report has apparently been leaked but I would bet the source of any such leak is not any of the opposition members. They know they would be expected, and well advised, to respect the process, even if they dislike it. They have their various political means to influence and change such processes if they want to. Leaking documents may be good politics but it is rarely, if ever, good governance.

Yes there is going to be more open dissent and disagreement and more pure politics being played in the policy design process - but that is as it should be. We can now move beyond the risk of poor policy decisions being made through a small, closed, often single-minded, and too often, secretive process. This new openness affords Albertans opportunity for policy decisions based on a collective wisdom of a larger, more independent and diverse set of perspectives. And the best part, Albertans can watch, learn and better judge for themselves the actual policy process and its final outcomes.

Premier Ed Stelmach and Dave Hancock, in one of his many roles as Government House Leader, are an effective team. They both understand good government demands good governance. Both men campaigned for the Progressive Conservative leadership with platform positions on improving the policy making process. Last Tuesday they delivered some of those campaign goals. I applaud them and the other House Leaders in working together to reach this resolution that addresses, in part, the democratic deficit in Alberta.

Yes sir, I smell democracy in the air. I welcome this new day in Alberta governance and see it as a better expression of a mature democracy.

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The Alberta Budget Means the Week Ahead is Going to be Interesting

ELIZABETH MAY'S BLOG IS NOW LINK TO THIS SITE!
Adding Elizabeth May to my links should help Progressives who read this Blog to stay current with May's campaign and encourage them to learn more about her and the Greens. I am still thinking there is no pending federal election. This gives Dion and May time to establish themselves and to become better known. They sure need the time.

My sense is the more we learn about Harper the less trusted he will become. The more we learn about Dion and May the more we will come to respect them and the more we will learn about the critical issues and needs to adapt to climate change.

THE SLOW MOVING TSUNAMI THAT IS MOUNTAIN PINE BEETLE
We have done some initial reviews of the community workshop findings out of the first leg of the Grande Alberta Economic region road show. We are in these communities talking to the full range of local interests and gathering insight and input from the key Alberta communities who will be hit the hardest. We are on the road again tomorrow starting in Drayton Valley then Whitecourt and finally Grande Cache.

The economic and environmental concerns are being looked at and considered in many ways by the province and the feds. The social impacts on the communities and this region are also important and have to be integrated into any mitigation and adaptation strategy. That effort really has to come from the commuities on a bottom up approach along iwth the top down from the senior orders of government.

Prevention of the beetle is futile. Mitigation can only buy time but not stop it. Adaptation is the key and time is of the essence with some estimates of peak infestation in the province coming in as little as five years. One thing is for sure, our forests are going to change as a result of the Mountain Pine beetle The industies and commuities that rely on them are going to have to adapt significantly to the new reality.

The beetle is now in Banff and Jasper and the policy there is to use prescribed burning to combat the infestation. Our National Parks are sources of great pride for Canadians. The reality of the Mountain Pine Beetle and its consequences means the mountain parks in Alberta are going to change and potentially very radically and very soon.

SMOKE FREE ALBERTA IS GETTING ACTIVE
The coalition of various groups and agencies are now well organized. They are focused on gting legislated smoking bans in work and public places and to support the Alberta Minister of Health and Wellness Dave Hancock in this part of his wellness agenda. This is not a new idea in Alberta but in the past four attempts to legislate these changes it was opposed the Alberta government under Ralph Klien who always killed it at the political level.

Premier Stelmach and Minister Hancock are keen to see it pass this time but the Premier has said the matter must still have Caucus support to proceed. Hancock is gearing up to initiate the internal political process to legislate the public and work places ban, remove tobacco sales from pharmacies and control the"powerwalls" displays in stores where tobacco products are sold.

One suggestion from a citizen was that tobacco should only be sold in liquor stores making it a destination purchase and not a convenience purchase. He also noted who would risk their liquor license by selling tobacco products to a minor? Polls show Albertans what this to happen. It's about health and it's about time.

IT IS BUDGET WEEK IN ALBERTA
There is lots of anticipation surrounding the Stelmach government's first Budget. The disability community throughtout Alberta for example is looking for significant new dollars to recruit and retain staff that are at dangerously low levels. They have been meeting with MLAs Ministers and officials and have been told that new money is coming in the Budget. They are in a wait and see mode right now and nervously "holding their breath" for Budget details.

The situation is quite dire in many cases due primarily to the lack of funding levels to enable this sector to provide competative pay levels. The recent group home fire in Edmonton that resulted in a fatality of a disabled person was fully staffed and well operated at th etime of this tragedy. There are staff level shortages in many service providers all over Alberta that would not be able to deal with such an emergency effectively. It is that critical in too many cases in service provider capacity to meet service needs of their clients.

The political culture in Alberta that resulted from ten years of budget cuts and five years of political lethargy has to be changed. We see that Premier Stelmach is intellectually and emotionally ready to make the changes and he has initiated a wave of consultations and initiatives since becoming Premier four short months ago.

This week we will see the Budget and that will tell us how ready he is to take the real action to assure Albertans we have a new and very different kind of progressive government. I am looking forward optimisticaly to the Budget Speech on April 19th as both a partisan and as a citizen.

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Good for Dion and May

It is time to get serious about the implications of the Dion/May so-called Red/Green show. I have been waiting for this liaison to consummate for some time now. I am delighted as a Canadian to see a new politics start to crystallize with this collaboration. Who would not trade Lizzie for Belinda if you were serous about the future and good governance of the country?

I have scanned a smattering of blogs on this issue and listened to the local Liberal Party president Allan Armsworthy interview on the House this morning. He is a most reasonable and enlightened man in my opinion. It is worth a listen.

As for disenfranchising Liberal voters in Central Nova constituency well yes that may be true for a few folks but we are dealing with the Law of Small Numbers here. Everyone who voted Liberal, or for any other party for that matter, is not one of “them” and they did not decide to "join the party" as a result of their vote. They are just ordinary citizens who voted in a certain way and who made their decision based on any number of individual motivating drivers. Old thinking MSM seems to believe everyone who voted Liberal is a Liberal and they will be upset and disenfranchised. "Out of touch" is the kindest thing one can say about such superficial observations.

The real world sees about 3% of Canadians actually belonging to political parties...that is all of them combined. So those gladiator Liberal members in Central Nova, if you are ticked…go ahead and cry a river of angst and anguish but you know you will get over it. Besides May could well be the best Liberal you can muster as a preferred candidate anyway.

Political parties have too much power and influence given the sparse and clubby nature of the usually exclusive activist membership. That is true of all political parties these days. This focus on local party membership reaction over this collaboration is not the main issue at play here.

What is truly wonderful about this unconventional collaboration of Dion and May is just that. It is collaboration not a confrontation and it is based on an expression of personal convictions and values. This “unusual” move by Dion and May is not about power politics, the cult of personality or adversarial partisanship. It is not a back room deal and Layton has to desperately characterize it. It is about two pragmatic people with leadership ability, a depth of character and with genuine convictions who want to make a difference acting strategically. I applaud the move.

Lets face it we have a plethora of McKay types in the House of Commons and a dearth of May types. This is a designed effort towards creating a potential for a greater diversity of voices that the first past the post approach will not deliver. This is in and of itself enough to make this collaboration worthy of praise.

We live in a relational world not a hierarchical one any more. That maybe news to Harper but I doubt it. My guess is Harper just does not want to network with his own Caucus. He wants to command and control them. Given the value set and loose cannon proclivities of many of them, one can hardly blame Harper.

Dion and May on the other hand are post-conventional politicians and the first wave of a new kind of politics. Their collaboration is the first tangible sign of a new political order emerging. Heaven knows we need one.

ongratulations to both of them for this courage and wisdom. I expect we will see Canada better served because of this initiative. If not this coming election, then the next one for sure.

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Alberta Declares a State of Emergency Due to Mountain Pine Beetle

My posting on adapting to the Mountain Pine Beetle has been getting a lot of hits and attention. With this level of interest I thought readers may want to have more background. The report we did for the Grande Alberta Economic Region in January dealt with the economic, social and environmental costs of the Beetle to this region based on the devastating experience form British Columbia mostly.

I see Premier Stelmach and Minister Morton have declared a state of emergency because of the Mountain Pine Beetle. It is a good thing. Even the southerners are getting concerned and they are not as dependent on the Boreal Forest as norther Albertans are. The beetle is now in Banff and Jasper National Parks in significant numbers now too. that adds a whole new dimension to the problems. This is going to be a national emergency soon too I expect.

We have a video interview coming on Policy Channel shortly with Glenn Taylor, Mayor of Hinton and the Chair of the Grande Alberta Economic Region. If you are concerned about the biota at all you will want to see that interview.

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Alberta Can Be Part of the Global Warming Solution and Not Just Part of the Problem

My business partner Satya Das published an op-ed in the electronic version of the Globe and Mail today making the counter-intuitive argument that Alberta is actually part of the global warming solution and not just part of the problem.

The flat-earthers and CO2 exhaler exalters have been commenting in full denial mode on the Globe piece. They have nothing to say that adds to resolving the concern. Because in fact any prudent precautionary principle demands that we act in appropriate ways to reduce the human influence on increasing GHG emissions. What is appropriate is the question, not if CO2 is a natural ecological element or a pollutant or a GHG - or not. It is all of those in fact. So what!

I am half way through a set of workshops I am presenting on behalf of the Grande Alberta Economic Region. So far everyone gets the reality of global warming and the immediate consequence they face is the reality of the Mountain Pine Beetle. Our aggressive policy of forest fire fighting has had the effect of provide enormous amounts of Beetle food as we have preserved and protected mature stands. Drought, forest fire and management techniques with global warming all encourage the ravages of the Beetle.

I have been impressed in my meetings with people in this economic region and especially with the real live issues they face. These are the first Albertans who will live directly with the devastating consequences of global warming. They will suffer significant economic, environmental and social consequence. The theoretical bleating of arms-length ideologues parsing minor points for the purpose of argument scores or debating points bore me.

If you are interested/concerned about the MPB visit the GAER site or Policy Channel often for updates.

We have to start to make very serious efforts and plan for significant adaptations of how we work in consort with the planet. A good place to start is to quit trying to dominate Mother Nature. She has proven to be fickle at best and inherently indifferent to our concerns and petty purposes.

The planet will do fine. It will continue to exist, even if it is significantly different than we know it today. It will still be "here." There is no need to presume that our species, or any other species for that matter, will realize and enjoy a similar fate the way things are going.

Adapting to the Mountain Pine Beetle in Alberta

I met with a group of community leaders in Edson Alberta last night and conducted a workshop on the reality of the Mountain Pine Beetle infestation on Alberta’s forestry based communities. I am on the road this week and next in communities like Hinton, Jasper, Drayton Valley, Whitecourt and Grande Cache getting local input and insight.

I was impressed with the community spirit and realistic attitudes of the participants in Edson. The local Member of Parliament Rob Merrifield came and stayed for the evening. He was very helpful and knowledgeable and gave some of the science and public policy updates coming out of Natural Resources Canada. Nice to see another politician who "gets it" in terms of how quality representational politics should be done. I was impressed and I am no easy "sell" on politicians these days, as regular readers know.

It looks like on the Alberta side of the issue the early indications are an 80% kill rate above the snow level from this winter. The bad news is about a 50-60% survival rate under the snow - and we had lots of snow in the forest this year.

Prevention is not possible. Mitigation efforts can only buy us time to adapt. Adaptation is the key. The impact is going to be huge on the environment, the economy and the forest related communities. Complex and challenging are key concepts that people are grasping and what to do and how to do it are the big questions around adaptation.

This MPB adaptation planning and execution is going to be one of the largest ecological, economic and social issues facing Alberta in the next few years. It is going to impact and engage all orders of government, all aspects of business and industry, every possible environmental element of air, land, water, biodiversity, habitat, just to name a few. As for community and society, the changes there are going to be dramatic as well.

This challange is complex enough that it is going to demand a true collaboration that is top down and bottom up at the same time. We have time to adapt provided we don't squander it. Bickering over if the science of climate change is real or not is a waste of this precious time.

I will give some links in future postings if readers want to keep on top of the developments in mitigation and adaptation to the new climate change reality of the Mountain Pine Beetle in Alberta.

Our April 8th Column in LaPresse

LaPresse 8 avril 2007

Ken Chapman et Satya Das
Les auteurs dirigent Cambridge Strategies Inc, groupe-conseil albertain en politique publique.

The emergence of Mario Dumont and his autonomist agenda profoundly alters the traditional landscape of the Canadian federation.

In the middle of political uncertainty, the only certainty we have left is that we are all living on moving ground.

Yet this shifting terrain can be a place of some promise. Depending on the connotation and the meaning attached, the word autonomist can also be descriptive of Alberta – a desire for jurisdictional autonomy, in the context of a profound attachment to the idea of Canada.

In a sense, it is good that Quebec shifted away from deciding the old federalist versus separatist criteria. That division brought us close to sterility and futility. Any new channel of discourse, so robustly supported by Quebec voters, is preferable to the stalemate.

Even more interesting is the consensus among commentators that the rise of the ADQ reflects the politics of identity. If this is true, it has implications outside Quebec, in other parts of Canada where similar strains on traditional identity are very much a part of the social and cultural landscape.

Dumont’s ADQ tapped into the angst of rural and socially conservative Quebecers over accommodations around immigration, family values, distrust of elites and a fear of an erosion of francophone identity. Apart from francophone identity, these are resonant issues in Alberta as well.

Dumont’s campaign comments have been characterized as “a more prudent kind of nationalism” allowing him to play both sides of the federalist-separatist fence, yet his future depends on how an autonomist approach is elaborated in practice. If this is about demanding Ottawa respect provincial jurisdiction and a belief that strong provinces add to the strength of Canada, we are all for it. If it means isolationism, we are not!

We see Dumont today as a three-legged man. He has one foot with the federalists, one with the separatists and another planted firmly with Quebec’s social conservatives. Can the “real” Dumont sustain this stance for very long? He has to shift his political weight one way or another or he will risk looking indecisive and ill-defined as the inevitable next election looms large.

We expect the dynamics, timing, issues and even the outcome of the next federal election will have a lot to do with Quebec’s concerns as well. Harper clearly now needs a new “best friend” in Quebec. Jean Charest is not “the man” any more. Andre Boisclair is done, and never was in the running as Harper’s new best friend. Enter Dumont as the great Harper hope for a majority federal government—thanks to Quebec.

Dumont's support for Harper will come at a price in both dollar distributions and the devolution of powers to the province. He will force Harper to look fiscally like a profligate federal Liberal. Our guess is Harper will be bound and determined to buy Quebec’s “loyalty” no matter what it takes. Harper needs to “embrace” Quebec in order to win a majority government. The rest of Canada will not be amused and tensions will rise. Not an easy game for Harper to play but the recent federal Budget shows that every political soul has its price.

We live in uncertain times with minority governments in Canada and Quebec and with Ontario facing an election this fall. Alberta is at best a year away from an election and who knows what these elections will decide or how they will change the country.

Citizens all over Canada are expressing dissatisfaction about how they are being governed. Quebec is just the most recent and the most dramatic expression of this discontent. If this keeps up, we may have to declare that old fashioned command-and-control politicians a nationally endangered species.

Whether Dumont is the first of a new breed, or a repackaged version of an old-school politician, remains to be seen.

Harper Still Falls Short - According to SES Poll Results Today.

SES has just released a new poll. Nice to see a poll that relates to pre-budget and post-budget periods with sufficient time lapse to neutralize the impact of the media coverage bounce. Also nice to see nothing much has changed since Jan 2006 election results with respect to the relative position of the parties. Decima is a bit different and the Cons love to jump on one result and call it a trend. All other recent polling shows about the same-old-same-old results as in Jan 2006 and this SES poll.

At least Dion has maintained the Liberal position and the Cons are still unable to capitalize on the power inherent in holding office. In fact they are tied within the polls margin of error, if you want to take an optimistic view. Harper only wants an election if he can appear to be pushed into it. Give us a year more to see who Dion is and capable of, the same goes for what May stands for and if Layton can escape the gravitational pull of the NDP past.

The Cons have been able to buy an 8 point bounce in Quebec for about $4.0B in booty if you include the aerospace $900M announced this week. How long will that last with Charest saying it is not enough and a Quebec minority meaning they will be in constant campaign mode there.

The other regional results are telling too. The other key battle front is Ontario which sees the NDP and Greens eroding support and going from the highest uncommitted vote to the average...all of this repositioned support is split between the two major parties who are now neck and neck.

The West is most interesting where the Liberals have a 5 positive point bounce and the Cons are static and only 6 points up on the Libs. What is going on there? The West got nothing from the budget except dismay that Harper has turned into the kind of Quebec pandering politician that spawned the Reform Party in the first place. How much can he alienate his base before he starts to see them staying home or sending a harsher message over his CPC leadership status? That grumpiness about Harper is just below the surface...expect Ted and Link Byfield to be the lightening rods to hunt Harper down on this front.

Poor old Atlantic Canada can't quite grasp the changes or is it that they have the best contrarian perspective on what things are happening? They keep the Cons at bay with tepid but no change in support and they reduce Lib support giving it to the NCP and the Greens and then have over a 50% bounce in uncommitted voters at 11%. For those Maritimers who can't figure out if Harper is going to "punch or bore" them - relax - he is going to do both to you. You count even less in Harper's sense of Canada than the West does, meaning he does not understand nor does he care much about your wants and wishes as Canadians.

In conclusion nothing has changed in the minds of Canadians in the past 15 months as to keeping a minority government or if it is time for a new majority...but 64% of Canadians in an Angus Reid study says now it not the time for an election.

One big shift we have seen happen since Harper took power. We have a Prime Minister who has demonstrated very forcefully that he and his PMO is the absolute controlling factor in his Party. We also can see that his agenda is to achieve personal political power over the country with Harper as Canada's Cromwell. He will do this at any cost, be it cash, conflict, conspiracy or our national sense of social cohesion.

An Ipsos Reid study recently indicated 65% of Canadians felt they did no know Stephen Harper as a person...in other words who he is and what he believes in and stands for. This is after over 5 years of seeing him in federal political leadership roles. Well in the past 6 months we have seen his tactics from broken campaign promises (Income Trusts and Equalization for example) to hypocrisy on others (wait time guarantees to disregarding the need for child care spaces), to buying Quebec support (the Budget) and a bullying political personality (personal attack ads to cheap-shot Taliban supporter accusations) in how he tries to marginalize and intimidate people.

We can now tell much more about who Harper really is. To my mind he is much scarier than we thought than even in the 2004 election. The key questions for Canadians about Harper is do we trust him? Does he "get the country" and does he have a serious grasp of the critical issues of our time - like the environment? Can we rely on him to keep his promises? Given his obvious hunger for power do we feel he is the right "fit" to be our Prime Minister with a majority government given all the discretion and power of that office? Does he have the kind of character qualities we want to see govern us as a modern mature citizen based democracy?

These polls show Canadians have not yet made up their minds on how they would answer these questions. I have. My answer is no on all counts.

Conservative Eye for the Liberal Guy

Here is a clever video - American but for the names and a few other changes the feeling for Canadians is the pretty much the same one.

Can Canadians be enraptured enough by the "charms" of the Harper Cons and Steve Harper be "made over" enough for us to want to give him a majority government now?

Identity politics and "regular-guy" candidates who authentically reflecting our personal values is what real politics is all about. So how much has Harper really changed and how far does he have to "work us over" so he can convince us he has seen the light. The "New Government of Canada" is so yesterday. Why? Well because Harper has kept all of his "campaign promises." That's right, all 5 of 'em and in a complete and timely fashion..don't you know? Time to move on.


The New Stephen Harper, the Primed Minister of the New Canada, that is what is next and what is so "now." Especially "now" since he has totally aligned himself with ALL the mainstream Canadian values, including integrity and transparency? A quick look at his record will "prove" that. Just make sure you only take a quick look and you only use the CPC webite as your sole source of information.

Is he worthy of our trust? Is he deserving of our consent to be governed by him and him alone. Of course! Steve Harper - there just has to be a majority government in your future. If for no other reason than Divine Right of the PMO. I just can't wait to have the chance to genuflect before my Prime Minister, the always Right, the occasionally Honourable, the "real Steve," the new Harper.

Climate Change Impact, Adaptations and Vulnerability

Here is the link to the latest Working Group II " Climate Change Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability IPCC Report on Climate Change. I have given you the link to the “Summary for Policymakers." Everyone had better read it and even the full report would be best. Be sure you understand it and the implications. It is about to change your life.

There is every reason to believe the planet will survive but no reassurance that many of the species on the planet will survive the way we are going. One has to wonder if that possibility of species extinction also includes Man!

Harper's Latest Hoax: His Campaign Promise Over Wait Time Guarantees

UPDATE: APRIL 9, 2007
Andrew Coyne in the National Post does a piece today (Harper Has Learned Well) that reinforces the point of this Blog post. It is worth a read.

Stephen Harper claims he has delivered on another of his campaign promises, this time over health care wait times. The triumphalism he presented with this “announcement” is pure George Bush in content and context and especially in his contempt for the truth.

Dubya, you will remember, donned a flak jacket, flew in a jet, landed on an aircraft carrier as a poser for the photo op in front of a banner declaring “Mission Accomplished.” Yes the world was lied to yet again in his declaration of victory in Iraq. One can’t help but ask just how many months - and deaths ago - was it that the world celebrated that glorious day for our security and peace of mind. We have to ask ourselves just how the Iraqi people have enjoyed, or should we say endured, their “freedom” and their “democracy”?

Steve’s wait time guarantee delivery triumphalism was more bathos but his claims of political victory was just as hypocritical as Dubya’s Mission Accomplished declaration. Wait times “guarantees” yes sir – promise made – promise kept, well kinda, sorta, maybe. For sure under in certain circumstances, perhaps in three years and in limited and modest dimensions, admittedly to varying degrees and in different ways in the different provinces but it is ideal, we think.

The provinces will always seem to take the money in the same old extortion model originally fashioned and perfected by the old-style Liberals. This is Harper using the same old same old way of the feds buying their way into provincial jurisdiction. This is after all Canada’s “New” Government you have come to know. They are the “quasi-Conservative” and “Liberal emulator” government of Prime Minister Stephen Harper. Yup it is the "fiscally conservative" and the "jurisdictional purist" Stephen Harper who is doing the extortion trickery this time.

His approach on this policy trickery reaffirms his admiration with the George Bush precise media message planning and the transparency of his political power plays. As for the provinces it seems we can always count on them to trade jurisdictional purity when cash comes to shove. You can all expect Harper to be out of cash by the 2010 due date, just in time for his wait time policy outcomes to be evaluated and the provinces will have to account to citizens on this Harper policy.

The provinces are going to wear the political fall out from the lack of real performance for any effective wait time guarantee outcomes. Harper will have moved on, in one way or another. If he is still PM expect the second shoe to drop and he will say that his government, unlike the former Liberal government, respects the provincial jurisdiction in health care and expects them to deal with their own problems on wait time guarantees. That is the way this federal encroachment has always worked in the past and why would Harper be any different now?

It is always the same game when the feds agree to pay for new health care initiatives. At the beginning they buy provincial inclusion and engagement and they always pull out when the going gets tough or they have changed policy direction to some other flavour of the month.

It always ends up the same way, just like the old Peanuts cartoon. Remember the one where the Feds play Lucy holding the football and the Provinces play Charlie Brown. Chuck always who knows she will pull the ball away just as he goes to kick it but he continues to take the sucker bait every time.

Rest assured these fresh federal funds are not the answer to wait times and will do more harm than good to the over all system. Every MSM editorial and commentator I have read have called this ploy for just what it is – political hypocrisy and election posturing.

Given his dismal record on keeping campaign promises and his bullying style of playing power politics, I wonder why anyone who is politically engaged, and not a card carrying CPC party member, actually believes or believes in Stephen Harper anymore. This video captures the essence of Harper's duplicity.

Enlightened Savage Strikes Again!

I continue to be impressed by the postings of The Enlightened Savage. The April 4 posting on the Agnishotri expulsion from the Alberta Legislature gives a full, frank and even "enlightening" review on what happened in toto...not just the shallow selected fact analysis of the MSM or most other bloggers I have read on the subject.

Give it a read...it is worth it. I especially like the parallels he draws between this Alberta Liberal' s approach to the same type of innuendo smears that have been done on Dion by Harper in the federal scene. Harper is obvioulsy a master of stepping upto but not over the line. It would be interesting to see his butt booted out of Parliament for a day or so for such offensive allegations but he cleverly contains them within the "rules." Never mistake clever for wisdom.

Interesting that the Democratic Deficit in Alberta is being addressed by the Stelmach government in some significant ways. The recent agreement to open up the Standing Policy Committees for all party participation is a reform that is long overdue. Stelmach and Hancock have to be given the credit for this initiative.

The civility in Question Period and the amazing increase in the number of questions being dealt with are other more subtle but also very important reforms. Hell you can take school kids to view Question Period now and not be afraid that they might actually model the behaviour of the politicians.

Perhaps it is taking the Alberta Liberals some time to adjust to some good governance.

Canada 2020 Conference a Hit

My Business Partner, Satya Das, just returned from participating in the Canada 2020 Conference on “Who Should Do What in a Progressive Canada.” All accounts were very positive about the event with presentations by Slamon Rushdie, Wired magazine's Chris Anderson and Tim Flannery author of "The Weathermarker's" and President Ellen Johnson Sirleaf of Liberia.

A wider range of topics and all presenters and presentation videos are on the Canada 2020 website thanks to the event coverage of CPAC. You can view the presentations on line if you miss them on the CPAC broadcasts.

Progressives will want to watch the presentations and keep in touch with the Canada 2020 site for more events and updates. For example the book, co-published by Canada 2020 and Crossing Boundaries, entitled “Progressive Governance for Canadians” is worth the download and a read for Progressives and how we need to engage governance changes in Canada. It really frames the need for citizen re-engagement into our democracy and the power it would have once it happens.

I Am Home

Paris was terrific. Can't tell you about the business dealing due to confidentiality agreements. Suffice to say I am pleased.

I had most of Tuesday to myself. Having gone on a Hemingway Pilgrimage to the Left Bank haunts of him and Picasso and the Paris School in earlier days for dinner (the name will come to me...I have been up for 27 hours). Then off to the Rosebud Bar, another famous Hemingway haunt, just around the corner for after dinner drinks.

Then I decided to adventure the next day and to strike off one of my list of "things to do before you die." I spend the day finding it and the afternoon hanging around in the famous Parisian bookstore Shakespeare and Co. (is bookstore masculine or feminine in French?) That visit was a delight for a book guy like me.

As the wheels touched down the shuffle on my iPod played Simon and Garfunkel's Homeward Bound. More found poetry. I find it often. It pops up quite regularly when you keep your eyes peeled for it.

Off to catch up on some sleep in my own bed and off to work tomorrow. I will be back blogging regularly starting tomorrow. I promise.

Paris in Spring Time

I am off to Paris today on business - the real one like in France - not the plastic one like in Hilton. Gone until Thursday. My postings will be more sporadic than usual this week but I will no doubt have something to say while I am away.

Polls Show Canadians Prefer None of the Above for Prime Minister

The polls continue to point in every direction as to the wisdom of a spring election. The policy issues are not making any difference in poll results because the polls are not asking about them. They are focused on the "beauty contest" aspects of the leaders only.

Leadership is a driving value for citizens today but there is so much more on our minds these days that will also have a significant influence how we will actually vote when an actual election is called and it all becomes serious and meaningful. These beauty contest polls are mere media fodder and mostly serve as PR for polling firms. Much ado about nothing when it come to the real world concern of citizens.

So for the "entertainment value" lets look at some of the more interesting findings of recent polls. An SES poll showed Harper’s Budget actually can best be described as having a lukewarm impact in Quebec. It showed only 27% seeing him more favourably, 33.5% not changing their minds and 36.6% thinking less of him.

Charest was not the benefactor of the Harper Budget largess either in Quebec. Only 20.9 improved their opinion of him, 38% were the same and 37.8% say him in a less favourable light. No big confidence booster the for the Charest leadership. The Quebec election results showed the consequences of these numbers in spades.

This poll is important because it focuses on something that is really framing the one of the dominant value drivers for elections right now. It is the quality and character of leadership as well as trust and respect. The overwhelming policy issue is the environment (except for Quebec where health care still runs #1) but leadership is also very important.

SES deserves serious consideration because it was the only pollster who called the 2006 election results accurately. The rest of the polling industry embarrassed themselves with just how far out of touch they were with the voter reality on election day. Could this be happening again given the wide range of results emerging from the various polling firms?

Ipsos Reid yesterday concluded no bounce for Harper out of the Budget last week and commented “…the numbers should stand as a warning to all major parties that an election is not in any of their interests.”

Angus Reid, on the other hand, a day earlier claims Harper’s Cons have a 17 point lead and the Dion Liberals “plummet to 22% nationally.” Harper apparently has a 49% post budget approval rating in Quebec. Given the cash he promises to pour in there what do you expect? Will he sustain these numbers is the question.

This poll is being touted as another proof Harper should go to the electorate now. His approval ratings reflect a tepid support for his leadership also found in the SES poll.

The real interesting number in the Angus Reid poll is the fact that a full 43% say they are Not Sure or that Neither Dion or Harper is the right guy. Couple that with 64% saying the country is on the Wrong Track or Not Sure you have a recipe for volatility and change. The volatility is everywhere too from a high of 71% in BC to a low of 54% in Manitoba and Saskatchewan.

Leadership, character, respect and trustworthiness are key considerations. Given an earlier Ipsos Reid poll showed about 65% of Canadians still feel they don’t know what Harper stands for as a person and you can see why he wants to wait and not be facing the country any time soon. Dion is in no better shape in earning the trust and confidence of Canadians yet.

Campaigns matter and it is not time for Harper to go yet. So it looks like the Cons will settle for calling Dion names in another round of attack ads instead. Proving once again they are good at political tactics but deplorable at good governance.

Let's Hope That Somewhere, Somehow, Harper Sill Has an Agenda

It is a rare but valued occasion when someone you know to have significant philosophical differences with you seems to express themselves in ways that converge and align with you rather than diverge and divide you. The cynic in me would conclude in such circumstances, one of us simply does not understand the issue. That is not the case this time with Link Byfield.

Link Byfield is a staunch conservative and I am a pure progressive. We have little in common other than a respect for democracy and a high regard for our freedom of speech and a distrust of power structures. His recent Commentary on what Stephen Harper is doing is ironically almost totally consistent with my point of view. I just wanted to share it with you.

So with his permission, I give you Link Byfield and his take on the federal budget, the Quebec election and what the hell Stephen Harper is doing:


Let's hope that somewhere, somehow, Harper still has an agenda
There appear to be two very different views of last week’s federal budget and this week’s Quebec election.

One attitude could be labeled “let’s go,” and the other “let them go.”

The “let’s go!” crowd is saying, “The budget worked, the Conservatives have reached majority territory at 40% in the polls, and Quebec separatism is dead. Let’s have an election.”

The other is saying, “The budget was a ridiculous Quebec spending spree, it won’t work, and I’d rather let Quebec go.”

They’re angry that Quebeckers got more than anyone else in this budget, and always do.

No, actually, Maritimers and Manitobans get far more than Quebeckers per capita, for equally dubious reasons and with even worse effect.

So why is nobody complaining about them?

More to the point, why are conservatives not upset that this budget drives federal spending to its highest and fattest level in history?

In constant dollars per Canadian, Harper is spending more than Trudeau, Mulroney or Martin ever did (see Andrew Coyne at http://andrewcoyne.com/columns/2007/03/flaherty-biggest-of-big-spenders.php).

“Overall, no plan to address the productivity and demographic challenges facing the Canadian economy over the long term,” observed Jack Mintz, highly regarded former CEO of the C.D. Howe Institute. “This budget marks a turning point – major tax relief seems impossible, even from this government.”

Harper must do this, say the “let’s go” people, to get a Conservative majority.

Oh? And what will he do with it when he gets it? Will he then cut taxes and transfers? Tell the have-not provinces to pull up their socks and get to work? Tell Quebec to get in or get out?

If he can’t do these things now because he’s in a minority, and can’t discuss them during a campaign for fear of losing votes, what makes us think he’ll do them ever? Maybe he has a master plan. But how would we know?

At what point could we reasonably conclude that his overall objective has changed from fixing federalism to staying in power?

It’s hard to blame Harper, but in so many ways – fiscal federalism, climate change, the Quebecois nation – he is saying or doing one thing while (we hope) meaning and intending another.

While it may be necessary, do we not run a terrible risk that having started, he will be unable to stop? That having enmeshed himself in contradictions, he can never untangle himself?

This is why we at the Citizens Centre are organizing a People’s Parliament – a parliament without parties and politicians, just regular citizens interested in the public welfare.

Most Canadians are not cynical, and wish well for their country. But as a nation we are quite confused – and apparently in disagreement – over what federalism is about and how it should work.

Is it about preserving “social and regional equality” and “two founding nations,” as we are now so often told? Or is it still about ensuring the older values of freedom and prosperity at home, and supporting them abroad?

These two objectives are plainly in direct collision, but it takes a long discussion for people to understand why, and to decide which one matters more.

Canadians need a national assembly free of the cynicism, invective and dishonesty of our existing political institutions.

To find out more about this urgently needed project, visit www.ccfd.ca

Link Byfield

Link Byfield is an Alberta senator-elect and chairman of the Citizens Centre. The Centre promotes the principles of personal freedom and responsible government.


Thanks Link!

What If Borat Came to Film Mario Dumont's View of Quebec?

It occurs to me that Borat may be searching for a sequel to his cult flick “Borat: Cultural Learnings of America for Make Benefit Glorious Nation of Kazakhstan.” Where better to go than have Mario Dumont take him on a road trip to make a movie based on the ADQ's view of Quebec! The funding would, no doubt, come from Canadian government sources, all in the name of national unity, so what is the risk?

What about this for a working title: “Mario Treats Borat to a Cultural Learning of the Glorious Autonomous State of Quebec.” Just substitute Celine Dion for Pamela Anderson, and have Mario do a quick script adaptation. He could write himself in as the new Asmat, the Producer and could use most of his election speeches and media comments as background and research.

I think a moose instead of the bear and a maple syrup truck works better in a Quebec context. How about a duet? Mario and Borat singing "Mon Pays" to the tune of "O Canada"! They could sing it from the Hotel de Ville balcony in Montreal in honour of Charles deGaulle's famous "Vive Quebec Libre" pronouncement. What a fitting tribute to the essence of the Dumont goal of renaming the province to "The Autonomous State of Quebec." As for the naked wrestling scenes, they could happen just about anywhere.

How much would have to change from the original movie? Just some minor adaptations and reasonable accommodations to fit the ADQ perceptual context and voila - you have a hit sequel.

The Polls Tell Us Why Harper Will Not Be Going to the Polls - at Least Not Now.

The continuing volatility amongst Canadian's and our feelings about our federal government is showing up in the to-and-fro opinion polls results for the past many months. Flux and frustration are the political realities in the country today and Harper knows it. Do not hold your breath for an early election under the circumstances.

Harper is dancing as fast as he can, trying to catch up to the new rhymes and rhythms of the Canadian consciousness. He has made moves to change his framing from GST tax cutter and baby-bonus boy into the "thoroughly-modern vert-nouveau man." In the process has has been- seriously testing his credulity with Canadians. We just do not believe him nor do we seem to believe in him.

He breaks promises. He chases butterflies like Quebec "nation" without understanding the concepts and consequences. He panders and poses and under performs even on his tepid Five Priority Policy Agenda. Then he compounds the problem with cheap shots about parliamentarians loyalty and the Taliban, and makes unwarranted and unfounded personal slurs around the Air India tragedy, just to name a few.

Every time he sees the light and does something right and not just mean he get a 5 point bounce in the polls, for a day or two, moving from 35% to 40%. The mainstream media immediately goes into a rhetorical overdrive printing headlines about the Cons flirting with majority government territory and salivating over election fever. Then they retreat as the cold light of day emerges in follow up polls and we find that Harper has fallen back to earth, yet again.

The latest iteration of Harper’s up again and down again toilet-seat political fortunes happened over the March 19th Budget. The bounce to 40% territory happened in the first 2 days after the Budget. By the end of the week he was down to 35% again as people reflected on the Budget's political implications and realized Harper' s personal intentions.

Now we have to wait and see what the fallout is going to be for Harper out of the Quebec election. We all can see the consequences of his Budget bungling and interference in the Quebec election. He bet billions of our tax dollars on the Charest horse who turned up lame, in more ways than one.

The fiscal pain inflicted on the rest of us Canadians increased our frustration when Charest decided to use the Harper largesse for enhanced equalization money purely for personal tax cuts to Quebecers. We all understood the extra funs were intended to address the mythical fiscal imbalance for Quebec. The rest of Canada got no tax relief from the federal Budget and we are not amused. Especially Saskatchewan and Newfoundland who are legitimately angry with Harper. He screwed them royally in the process of paying off Quebec to purchase a personal power base.

Harper has essentially shown no progress in earning the trust and confidence of Canadians in the 14th months he has had control of the government. Do not be fooled, even with a minority government Harper has had de facto control. The Liberals spent most of 2006 finding a new leader and all of 2007 figuring out where they want to go with him so they have not been a force.

The major reason is after 5 years in federal leadership politics 65% of Canadians say they do not yet “know Prime Minister Harper any better as a person.” Those numbers are the same for all of Canada – expect for Quebec where a mere 59% say they don’t know him. This is not the stuff of long term viable political leadership.

I remember the headlines "Joe Who" immediately after Clark was chosen Progressive Conservative Party leader. Five year after Harper was chosen Reform/Alliance/Conservative party leader and over a year since he was chosen Prime Minister, we are still asking ourselves "Who is Stephen Harper?"

That is the real problem Harper has going int the next election, whenever it happens...we simply do not know who he really is after all these years.

Blog Survey Show Harper Budget Did Not Increase Support for a CPC Majority Government.

UPDATE: MARCH 27 - DECIMA POLL AGREES WITH MY BLOG

The survey trends on this site about if you want a Harper majority government has been interesting. It has been running since late February. Originally the No side was way ahead but by early to mid March the respondents were almost 50/50 and then a slight majority said Yes. They said they were ready for a Harper majority government, for a few days, just before the federal Budget came down.

Ever since the Harper Budget on May 19th the activity on the survey has increased dramatically and the ratio has shifted. Now it is running 80/20 against a Harper majority government. As you can see the net result is a 60/40 over the time this survey has been running.

I will keep this survey alive for a few more weeks to see how my Blog readers react to the Quebec election and the level of desire they have for a Harper majority government given the Quebec election results.

This is not scientific by any means but it is interesting to see what self-selecting folks who come to my site and who take a second to answer the poll questions are thinking.

How Will Harper Respond to the Changes in Quebec?

It is difficult to know what to make of the Quebec election results from way out here in Alberta. Understanding the implications for Canada is even more challenging. Here is what I think but I can assure you, we are now living on moving ground. The dynamics are so different that I feel know nothing for sure these days.

The pundit in me says that last night the electorate in Quebec sent a shot across Charest’s bow, sent a direct hit into Boisclair’s bow and let Dumont take a bow. It is a good sound bite but not helpful in understanding the implications of the Quebec vote last night.

So where are we, after having had some time to sleep on the Quebec election? Well there will be a raft of recounts so we are not yet sure of the final result but the popular vote was a three-way tie notwithstanding the final seat results. That three-way vote split should not be forgotten because it has serious implications for any minority government which has a short fuse by definition. I expect the dynamic, timing and outcome of the next federal election will have a lot to do with determining when the next Quebec election will happen and what it will be about.

The Quebec population shifted away from deciding who governs based on federalists and separatist criteria. It has not reverted to deciding government based on traditional left versus right criteria either. If you are to trust the observations on seasoned reporters from the province, the rise of the ADQ was more about identity politics and many Quebecers decided who to vote for mostly on that criterion. Dumont tapped the angst of rural and socially conservative Quebecers over accommodations around immigration, family values, and the distrust of elites and a fear of an erosion of the francophone identity. He also benefited significantly from the disenchantment of the old Liberal and spent PQ party hierarchies. Even as the second party Dumont is the undisputed winner from last night.

M. Dumont’s campaign comments have been characterized as “a more prudent kind of nationalism” allowing him to play both sides of the federalists-separatist fence. This so-called “autonomist” approach is repackaged sovereignty association to my mind. If it is about demanding Ottawa respect provincial jurisdiction and that strong provincial governments add to the strength of Canada, I am all for it. We shall have to wait and see what he means by an “autonomist” Quebec.

I see Dumont today as a three-legged man. He has one foot with the federalists, one with the separatists, and another planted firmly with the social conservatives of Quebec. Can the “real” Dumont stand up in this situation for very long? Time will tell but he has to shift his political weight one way or the other, sooner than later, or else he will look indecisive and ill-defined.

Harper clearly now needs a new best friend in Quebec. Charest is not “the man” any more. Boisclair is likely on his way out and never was in the running for Harper’s new best friend in Quebec anyway. Enter Dumont as the great Harper hope for victory in Quebec. Dumont's support for Harper will come at a price in both dollars and devolution of powers to the province. He will force Harper to spend and look like a profligate Liberal who is bound and determined to buy Quebec for power and peace, no matter what it takes. The last budget is a mere foreshadowing of this Quebec-centric spending spree Harper will have to embrace to win a Quebec based majority government I expect. The rest of Canada will will not be amused and tensions will rise.

Dumont’s Quebec base is also the old time-religion type so-cons that are reminiscent of the original western Reformers. That is a group that brought Harper to minority status but who he has abandoned as of late. Consider their growing disenchantment withHarper and his "set up" loss on the SMS vote, his reversals on Income Trusts, and the recent giveaway budget to Quebec. He is now seen as being all about a quest for personal power and abandoning the very principles that got him elected party leader and Prime Minister in the first place.

This means that the Dumont demands of Harper will force him to say one thing in Quebec and another in the ROC if his romancing of Dumont is going to work to win Quebec as the means to a CPC majority. Not an easy game to play.

We live in uncertain times with minority governments in Canada and Quebec now, and with Ontario on its way to the polls this fall. Alberta is a year away from an election too. Who knows what those elections will decide.

Citizens all over the country are expressing dissatisfaction about how they are being governed. Quebec is just the most recent and most dramatic expression of this discontent. If it keeps up we may have to declare old fashioned politicians as endangered species all over Canada. That may be a good thing come to think of it.

Is There a Pattern Forming Around the Harper Cons?

I hear the CPC is appealing the Court decision overturning the Rob Anders nomination in Calgary West. There is an interesting pattern that is forming here for the Conservative Party of Canada what with the events around Anders, Day and the last Ottawa race for mayor candidate involvement. Altogether they are either under investigation, pending investigation or under appeal from the courts. Real confidence and trust building events don’t you think?

I wonder who Harper called first tonight to congratulate them on the results of the Quebec election. My money is on Dumont first and Charest next. More on the Quebec election and what it means for Canada in a posting tomorrow.

Looks to me it is very much like a result that is close to what M. Leger said Quebecers wanted. they effectively have Dumont’s leadership, Charest’s MNAs and Boisclair’s policy.

I am glad Charest survived, party-wise and personally. It was nip and tuck for sure…on both counts.

Ontario Police Launch Investigation Around Allegations of Federal Conservative Buy Off of Ottawa Mayoralty Candidate.

Not another one! First Stockwell Day now this! According to CTV the Ontario Provincial Police have launched an investigation based on an affidavit that says some “senior Tory close to Prime Minister Harper was involved in an alleged bid to buy off an Ottawa mayoralty candidate.”

I think the CTV piece speaks for itself and citizens need to read it and follow this drama also as it unfolds. Tip of the Hat to BCer in Toronto for this link.

Big Changes Coming in Quebec Tonight

On February 19th my posting asked “Could the Week of March 20-26 Change Canada.?” I was out by one day when the federal budget came out on the 19th. The Quebec election was not yet set for the 26th but I got that date right at least.

It is interesting to reflect on what I thought then and what has happened since. I predicted the Cons budget “…is going to be as bountiful for Quebec as you can imagine…and designed to ‘ensure’ a Charest victory.” Truer words were never spoken, except it did not work for Charest and Harper!

My intuition on February 19th was Dumont would be the big political winner out of the election when I predicted “…that Dumont and the ADQ are going to spoil the party for Charest and Harper. He is not going to win but he is going to be the winner. Quebecers like to make favourable federalist deals but they don’t like to be bought off overtly nor played for fools.” That has proven to be true too.

I said then “It is going to be a fundamental and future changing week for Canada, never mind the shenanigans of Harper and Charest. My guess is Quebec will take the money, Charest will win, the PQ Boisclair will be a bust and told by his party to hit the road and Dumont will hold the balance of Quebec power at the end or the day.

Then I predicted Dion will force the federal election on the Harper Budget and the future of Canada as a nation will once again be at play. We will not have an election over the Budget but we may have it over the Cons environmental package - but I don’t see it happening now until the fall…and that is a good thing.

As for the Quebec election outcome tonight I have another "what if" scenario. Recent media reports attribute this insightful analysis to Pollster Jean-Marc Leger who said, “Essentially Quebecers want Mario Dumont as Premier, they want the Liberal team and they want the PQ platform put into effect.”

So true, but is that going to be the outcome? I think it is entirely possible that the Leger observation of what Quebecers want can become a reality. Consider if Dumont forms the minority government and then the Charest team is in the catbird seat in supporting his minority government, then they can institute PQ policy. The PQ will be too are busy burying Boisclair by forcing a new leadership race. Quebec can have it all. The ADQ's real friends in the Harper government will be receptive because it can mean more CPC seats in Quebec. And Quebec can still have the luxury of using the tried and true referendum threats to extort more power and cash from Canada. Harper has already proven himself to be obliging to Quebec's perceived needs - even without extortion.

Quebecers have signalled through poll results that they are changing, and they want real change and they not prepared to be trifled with. A message is about to be sent in this election to the status quo federalists (read Liberals) and the status quo separatists (read PQ). The last time Quebecers decided to send a ballot box message that they wanted some real change was 1976 when they voted in the separatist government of Rene Levesque. It was a shock to the province and the nation because it seemed to happen out of nowhere particularly to those conventional wise men who thought tomorrow was a mere extension of yesterday. That made them blind to the signs of the serious change that was coming.

If the conventional wisdom today is correct that the two tired old-line parties are found to be wanting of trust and respect, it might just happen again. Are we seeing a sea-change in the politics of La Belle Province? What would be the consequences if the collective, but quite wisdom of Quebecers, decided today, impulsively and intuitively right at the polling station, and at the very moment of putting down their “X” they wanted once again to send a strong message to the "politics-as-usual" crowd?

What if Quebecers en masse decided the ballot question today was to reject the tired old line federalist-separatist lens of Quebec politics and they voted strongly for the ADQ, the so-called "third party?" Could we have an ADQ minority government emerge later tonight? It is as realistic as any other possible outcome under the current circumstances.

What ever the election outcome in Quebec today, some folks in the ADQ will be partying like it is 1976 again. All this in the face of a pending federal election of uncertain timing and outcome too. I smell real democracy and big time fundamental change in the air, not only for Quebec but for Canada too.

Fasten your seat belts Canada; we are flying into some serious turbulence no matter who wins the Quebec election.

Nova Scotia Warns of "Delusional Calgaria"

Good for the Bluenosers of Nova Scotia…(I know where else would they be coming from!) They have a very clever and pointed website using humour and facts designed to lure their ex-pats from Calgary. They are warning their “people” that they may be suffering from a disorder (if not a fully functioning disease) they have called “Delusional Calgaria.” I think the point is this is a social disease that is fiscally transmitted and results in homesickness and culture schlock...a Calgary essence. I am from Edmonton, if you couldn't tell. Anyway check it out!

Alberta is great place with a warm and welcoming ambiance - but it is crazy busy, with not enough people to do the work and it is becoming EXPENSIVE too. Inflation is a fact in Alberta’s major centres in particular, due mostly to housing costs. The fact is we are just now catching up to Toronto, Vancouver and Ottawa housing prices but we shoulda, coulda and woulda seen it coming and have done something to better control it.

Unfortunately we were so damn fixated on eliminating the debt and deficit at breakneck speed in the 90s we forgot to plan for the obvious growth and infrastructure demands it would place on the place. If you were here “before” then you are doing well in practice and on paper. If you are a newbie and you can afford to stay to get established, you will love the province and you will do very well too. The price of admission today is a factor - for housing in particular is getting to be very high…even if you can find it. It is kind of like the dreams and hopes of the original Europeans who settled the west all over again. This time it is energy and high tech, not cheap land that is the new attraction.

So we need you and your skills and your spirit out here. But make sure you know what you are coming for and getting into. So Nova Scotia, don’t just ask your folks to return. Ask them to send work and contracts home to Nova Scotia too. We need the help out here and I am sure you can do much of what we need right there in Nova Scotia and share in the wealth we are creating out here…right from there!

Harper's Giveaway Budget Will Not a Majority Government Make

I see the MSM poll interpreters and headline writers are up to their tricks again. Space, time and depth of analysis are all limited so the consequences are misleading and shallow reportage. The Strategic Counsel poll for the Globe and Mail and CTV on post budget results is a case in point. It was conducted over the 2 days immediately following the Harper Budget and put in the context of…did the Budget give Harper enough to call (and win???) an election?

Of course the MSM media wants an election because it is good copy, good for business and, let’s face it, elections are good sport for MSM too! The electorate on the other hand is not supportive of a spring election and the opposition parties save and perhaps except for Jack Layton, are not keen to go now either. We do not need a federal election right now, especially if Quebec is going to become volatile again with its own election results coming tomorrow.

Nevertheless, based on post budget polling, the MSM media screams breathless headlines that Harper is approaching “majority territory” with 40% and a commanding lead on the Liberals. This is of course, based on data collected during a total news blitz coverage on the Budget that was a giveaway to provinces where 2/3 of the population live. What else would you expect but a bounce in the first 2 days afterwards?

It was also polling data collected before Harper insulted the country with his Dion likes the Taliban more than our soldiers bleating, before Defense Minister O’Connor’s expose about “misleading of Parliament” (a euphemism for lying) and the disclosure of damaging documents that his Minister of Public Safety Stockwell Day electoral activities may have breached the Criminal Code and Harper’s utterances. This past week Harper also said he would not acknowledge a separatists government if that was the choice of Quebecers…as if he has such a choice in a democracy. This all happened last week to but after the polling data was collected so the context of the MSM presentation of the poll results from the Cons Budget is lacking if we are to be kind about it.

Let’s look at some serious analysis of the Strategic Counsel post-budget poll results anyway. First the Budget gave the Cons a bounce (39% positive and 21% negative), no doubt that would be the result given it was the largest spending budget in the history of the country and a cash giveaway akin to game show prize winnings in Quebec. Underlying this fact was that an equal number of Canadians were “neutral” on the budget. Hum! Maybe the 38% of citizens who were neutral wanted to also think about it and understand it before they jumped to conclusions.

I wonder where they have they evolved in their thinking and in their opinions now that the implications of this budget are better understood. It is now seen in a cynical light to be mostly a budget about political positioning and less about sound economic planning.

A full 55% of Canadians and 67% of Harper’s western base saw the budget as a gift to Quebec. Ironically only 37% of Quebecer saw it that way and 34% of them are “undecided” but, get this, 51% of Quebecers do not yet believe they have gotten “their fair share” from the Budget. This is not a winning formula for nation building Prime Minister Harper. Thanks a lot!

Besides we know the budget is not the ballot box question in any pending federal election anyway – the environment is. So why does the MSM think the budget matters as a value driver as to how people will actually vote when the question will be real? Well the poll asked an environment question too. I did not see a single report on that aspect of the poll.

Well gentle reader – here is some more context for you about what this poll may be telling us. When asked if “Canadians were more concerned about the environment than the Harper government” a full 67% said yes, indicating the Cons have not achieved lift-off velocity on the main issue in he country and the one that will likely decide the next federal election. Even more interesting is that in Quebec and Ontario, where Harper is and has to go to get votes for a majority government, they say he “does not get it” about the environment at the 72% and 70% levels respectively. Ouch!

Harper resonated on the tax surcharge on gas guzzlers with 68% support and only 28% against; the West, by the way, was slightly more supportive than the national averages. But that was before we knew he exempted trucks and was actually playing market maker with a poorly thought out policy that preferred only selected manufacturers but was quickly “fixed” to also include cars made in Flaherty’s neck of the woods.

The big sleeper and potentially the most explosive finding out of this survey got absolutely no coverage in the MSM. It was the results of the question of “Should the federal government be involved in areas of provincial jurisdiction?” A whopping 67% agreed. Even 51% of Quebecers agreed and even more interesting was that 72% of the West was on side with this proposition. The Premiers will not be amused and the Prime Minister will be bemused. Will it embolden Harper to become more Liberal than Trudeau in occupying provincial political territory and jurisdiction? Time will tell!

So we should not get all excited from the MSM headlines and stories coming out of this poll that it might trigger an unwanted election. It has much more substance than the reporting but it tells us that nothing has been decided and no trends have been identified…yet. One thing is for sure though, these are going to be exciting and unnerving times in this quite little part of the universe we call Canada.

Will the RCMP Investigate Their Boss, the Honourable Stockwell Day?

With new evidence around the 2000 by-election circumstances surrounding the then newly minted leader of the Reform/Alliance Party, Stockwell Day we can only wait to see how Prime Minister Harper, handles the situation. Stockwell Day is,after all, his Minister of Public Safety and the Minister responsible for the RCMP. How Orwellian!

How comfortable are you as a citizen with the RCMP considering an investigation about criminal charges around political events of the Minister to whom they must ultimately report to? Are the RCMP going to decline to revisit the Stockwell Day by-election events of 2000 for criminal wrong-doing given that it directly involves the Minister to whom they report? What if an investigation were launched and criminal charges laid over the by-election of Stockwell Day and Harper had exercised his new political influence and control over the appointment of the Judge who was to hear the case? How comfortable are you with that? It could happen!

You have to marvel at the irony that the documents the Liberals are relying on were found in the files of the Leader of the Opposition Offices and were left behind by the former Conservative Leader of the Opposition, one Honourable Stockwell Day. The irony is even sweeter when you consider how hard Harper's people dug into the old files of the Martin Liberal government. They were looking for other potential Adscams they could use for political and purging purposes, but alas, to no avail.

How reassured are you that Harper and Day are skating and obfuscating around the Cabinet resignation issue under these circumstances? Do you believe the Honourable Stockwell Day, Minister of Public Safety of all things, should step down from Cabinet until this is resolved? Former Cabinet Minister Michael Chong resigned Harper's Cabinet over less critical, and less potentially damaging matters, but just as significant as to matters of principle. Michael Chong has proven himself to be a man of principle and character.

The RCMP were quick to jump into an investigation on supposed Liberal government political malfeasance around Income Trust leaks. That investigation was based on innuendo and hints but they announced it publicly just prior to the last election, only having to admit, many months later, there was no evidence of any wrong political doing. They ended up laying only one charge against an individual - a Finance Department bureaucrat who allegedly used insider Income Trust information for personal gain.

We are not yet in an election and only have mere media musings, hints and allegations that one is even remotely pending. So the RCMP do not need to worry about influencing an election outcome, this time any more than they did last time. It is not their concern as to timing of investigations and politics should not be a deciding factor. Speaking of the politics of the last investigation, it was strange the RCMP broke their usual silence about criminal investigations and let it be known publicly they were investigating the former Liberal government. Will they revert to traditional silence about these matters this time or will they boldly go again into the public political fray - if they even start to investigate their boss!

They might be able to get to the bottom of this Stockwell Day by-election matter well before an next election is even called. Perhaps Parliament is mature enough to actually forestall an election while this investigation is going on…presuming the RCMP actually decides to undertake it in the first place.

Where is the sharp wit and sound wisdom of former RCMP Commissioner Zaccardelli now that Canada, and Public Safety Minister the Honourable Stockwell Day, could really use him?

Now for something completely related.
What if I am right about the “republicanization” of the pro tem Prime Minister Stephen Harper and that his is eerily modeling and mimicking George W. Bush. I have been watching the “republicanization” of Stephen Harper as a variation on a theme for his style and substance of government all year. While I don’t think Harper is in the “Bush-league.” Let’s face it, when it comes to being “bush-league” Dubya is in a league of his own. You have to wonder if we can we expect what Stephen Colbert is showing us in this clip about the current Bush leadership reality to be somewhere in our Canadian equivalent?

Delving into Alberta's Democratic Deficit

There is a growing democratic deficit in Canada. Alberta has a particularly significant set of experiences in this regard. While the new Premier Stelmach has taken some initial steps to reform these matters the recent history of this province in this regard is not particularly sterling. It is not that anything illegal is being done, it is just that the system is not very accommodating of fundamental issues of fairness nor encouraging of informed debate and discussion. We are not getting the best service and outcomes of our legislative processes and institutions with outdated policies and practices.

Public Interest Alberta is a group of Alberta volunteer citizens who have engaged in a process to address these concerns. They have developed a very interesting discussion paper on Democratic Renewal in Alberta and are holding public forum all over the province for citizen input on the issues.

I recently interviewed Larry Booi, the Chair of Public Interest Alberta on the organization and its efforts around democratic deficits and renewal in Alberta. My conversation with Larry is on Policy Channel and I invite you to give it a boo!

As an aside, I spent a couple of days with former Prime Minister Joe Clark this week whiile he was in Edmonton. There is the text of a very interesting speech given by the Rt. Hon. Joe Clark given this week at the Univerity of Alberta on Policy Channel too.

Charest's Actions Show Quebec's Fiscal Imbalance is a Scam and a Sham

So Charest versions of overcoming the so-called fiscal imbalance is to take equalization money from the hard earned taxes paid by all Canadians and then using it - not to improve the level of government services to Quebecers as it is intended in the Constitution - but rather apply it to personal income tax cuts.

Quebec has a huge debt, spends more on social programs than Ontario and subsidizes everything from day care to university tuition at unsustainable levels and that do not provide effective outcomes. What does Charest do to get real about these chronic problems created by the parade of past provincial politicians…nothing! He is using federal equalization funds that are intended constitutionally to improve government services in health, education and so forth and instead using them for pure electoral political purposes with a tax break to boost his election chances. Disgusting!

Other bloggers have picked up on this and have pointed out that based on this cynical tax cutting action by Charest one can only conclude that since Quebec did not need the money for remedying any fiscal imbalance- it it fair therefor to conclude the "so-called" fiscal imbalance must not exist.

When Flaherty was Harris’ Minister of Finance in Ontario, that province did the same thing with federal funds. They took federal funding grants intended for improved government services and used it for tax breaks - and then borrowed the money to improve services...not arguing they too have a "fiscal imbalance" because of high debt. Charest has been taught this trick by a past master of obfuscation. Character and integrity are lacking in these politicians when they will do such crass and conniving things with the better purposes and stated intentions of the Canadian taxpayer's money.

Prime Minister Harper, a few questions sir! Wasn’t this type of pandering and political manipulation between Ottawa and Quebec City the original reason the Reform Party split from Mulroney and started in the first place? Has nothing changed except your opportunism and thurst for power sir? How long do you think you can alienate your base in the west and take advantage of, on one hand, and concurrently try to buy-off, on the other hand, the hard working, just-trying-to-get-ahead- middle-class Canadian swing voter with such disingenuous politics?

Good government is always good politics sir. The opposite is rarely true!

Ander's Nomination Ouster by the Courts for Breach of Party Rules

Ok on the Ander’s case and the courts setting aside his acclamation nomination, I have read the judgment and it speaks for itself. Some of you will not want to read it all but your roles as responsible and engage citizens will push you to do so. It is an interesting legal analysis but a very important decision and the facts shows how political party processes can be used to create unfair and incorrect results.

We all need to be vigilant to better understand how Mr. Anders "nomination" unfolded and who was involved and how they conducted themselves. Constant vigilance is the cost of freedom.

Council for the Party also was the person who defended Stockwell Day in Alberta when he defamed a Red Deer lawyer and school trustee. Defending that case on behalf of Mr. Day, now a Minister in the Harper government apparently cost the Alberta taxpayers over a $1M in legal fees and costs. It became the subject of a review of the government of Alberta’s risk management system. A review that I did along with my consulting firm for the Minister of Justice and Attorney General and the Speaker of the Alberta Legislature at the time.

The bottom line of that review and the Court’s decision on this nomination process for Mr. Anders confirms the first and most cardinal rule for citizens in a democracy…Be careful who you elect!